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Central PA - December 2017


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sausss, was that your daughter being interviewed on Saturday at the hershey bears game?

Intern from MU Lindsay/Lauren....somethin with an L?? :)

I took a pic cause i was like....hey thats one of my sno patrol geek buddys daughter......lol

was gonna share, but didnt know if youd approve.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

sausss, was that your daughter being interviewed on Saturday at the hershey bears game?

Intern from MU Lindsay/Lauren....somethin with an L?? :)

I took a pic cause i was like....hey thats one of my sno patrol geek buddys daughter......lol

was gonna share, but didnt know if youd approve.

 

 

Yep, her is name is Casey!

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14 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Yep, her is name is Casey!

That's awesome! I used to be a full season ticket holder for the Bears from about 1985-1997. There was no better building for hockey in North America than Hersheypark Arena, and I'm far from the only one that felt that way. Mike (Doc) Emrick said that many times over, and his voice has called many an NHL game. 

I'm not feeling Christmas snow...not being negative, I just don't see the cold air getting here in time. Now do I think things might get interesting shortly after Santa's big day? 

Yes. :)

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2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

That's awesome! I used to be a full season ticket holder for the Bears from about 1985-1997. There was no better building for hockey in North America than Hersheypark Arena, and I'm far from the only one that felt that way. Mike (Doc) Emrick said that many times over, and his voice has called many an NHL game. 

I'm not feeling Christmas snow...not being negative, I just don't see the cold air getting here in time. Now do I think things might get interesting shortly after Santa's big day? 

Yes. :)

I loved Hockey games over there. 

I think that is our big issue, IF, the cold air arrives in time. I know how that usually works out, but i'm holding on to every little chance. 

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48 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

That's awesome! I used to be a full season ticket holder for the Bears from about 1985-1997. There was no better building for hockey in North America than Hersheypark Arena, and I'm far from the only one that felt that way. Mike (Doc) Emrick said that many times over, and his voice has called many an NHL game. 

I'm not feeling Christmas snow...not being negative, I just don't see the cold air getting here in time. Now do I think things might get interesting shortly after Santa's big day? 

Yes. :)

Doc still refers to Hershey as the King of American hockey.

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1 hour ago, Anduril said:

So hows the snow chances lookin

Christmas still has a chance (continues to trend better as cold press is on the move and wants to get here in time fr Santa.  Next week will be a great week to be off playin.....just sayin. Longer range through 384 looks Burle N’ Ives / Norman Rockwell kinda look. Ice skating on snow covered ponds n all dat stuff. 

What will it look like tomorrow....we’ll i guess you’ll have to come back here n visit a bit more. :) 

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I think we'll have the cold available for most of the region by Christmas morning but the big thing right now looks to be storm evolution and timing of waves. GFS and Canadian have the primary event coming up through on Sat and into early X-mas eve and nothing behind. The Canadian gets in enough cold to look to have a sizable frozen event northern half of PA or so.  The Euro also has this wave (all rain) but has a completely separate wave that runs up and hits the coast, which sends a widespread snowfall for our area X-mas morning, when there should be plenty of cold air around for pretty much all of our subforum. It's probably gonna take another model cycle or so to start hashing out details on the weekend better. 

The pattern going forward looks good, with a solid -EPO regime and generally favorable Pacific pattern. MJO forecast to be near or into 8 and 1 which could help charge up the storm pattern a bit. There should be a couple of storm opportunities to present themselves in the next couple weeks. 

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4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I think we'll have the cold available for most of the region by Christmas morning but the big thing right now looks to be storm evolution and timing of waves. GFS and Canadian have the primary event coming up through on Sat and into early X-mas eve and nothing behind. The Canadian gets in enough cold to look to have a sizable frozen event northern half of PA or so.  The Euro also has this wave (all rain) but has a completely separate wave that runs up and hits the coast, which sends a widespread snowfall for our area X-mas morning, when there should be plenty of cold air around for pretty much all of our subforum. It's probably gonna take another model cycle or so to start hashing out details on the weekend better. 

The pattern going forward looks good, with a solid -EPO regime and generally favorable Pacific pattern. MJO forecast to be near or into 8 and 1 which could help charge up the storm pattern a bit. There should be a couple of storm opportunities to present themselves in the next couple weeks. 

Just hoping we can’t find a mechanism to hold the cold.  

EPO is crucial as the NAO remains MIA...

if not we risk storms trying to cut west (Miller B ) and can taint or flip. My wish is for overrunning followed by a southern stream coming up the arctic boundary. Ensembles look just awesome so just need them to hold....not fold. 

Overall currently North and west have best shot at white Christmas but Euro loves all of us. 

Man am I gonna lose a lot of sleep this next couple weeks. Snowfall maps have some impressive totals thrown in if verified. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Just hoping we can’t find a mechanism to hold the cold.  

EPO is crucial as the NAO remains MIA...

if not we risk storms trying to cut west (Miller B ) and can taint or flip. My wish is for overrunning followed by a southern stream coming up the arctic boundary. Ensembles look just awesome so just need them to hold....not fold. 

Overall currently North and west have best shot at white Christmas but Euro loves all of us. 

Man am I gonna lose a lot of sleep this next couple weeks. Snowfall maps have some impressive totals thrown in if verified. 

This pattern looks potentially awesome!

There first is a chance of a White Christmas. Then there are possibly 2 more chances of snow before we close out the year. The GEFS & EPS have really increased their snow amounts through the first few days of January.

Tracking multiple winter storm chances will only make the holidays more fun this year! 

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6 hours ago, canderson said:

Flying to Austin Dec 22, back home Dec. 29.

I’d rather not have to worry about a snowstorm interfering in my cat sitter’s ability to visit.

 

Take your cat with you...and extend your stay a while.

this doesnt include the humdinger at 384.  Relax...its just perty colors right now....

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Take your cat with you...and extend your stay a while.

this doesnt include the humdinger at 384.  Relax...its just perty colors right now....

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

 

This is one of the best GFS Op runs that I have ever seen! I think most here would be happy with half of those amounts. 

The bottom line is that multiple threats are lining up in the next 2 weeks. The GEFS & EPS overnight also increased snow amounts once again.

PS. The GFS is starting to look better for a little Christmas snow to get things started.

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Eric Horst has been saying for a week now that with the  volatility of the pattern that models are going to swing wildly from one day to the next, particularly from 5 days and out. 

It's safe to say that we should all have fun tracking in the coming weeks but we all need to keep realistic expectations. 

Probably the best signal we have right now for a potential significant winter weather event is Nut getting scolded in another thread once again...

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12 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Eric Horst has been saying for a week now that with the  volatility of the pattern that models are going to swing wildly from one day to the next, particularly from 5 days and out. 

It's safe to say that we should all have fun tracking in the coming weeks but we all need to keep realistic expectations. 

Probably the best signal we have right now for a potential significant winter weather event is Nut getting scolded in another thread once again...

Rut roh , who did nut fire up? Philly thread

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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Bingo! He posted snow maps on a weather forum. (but apparently in the wrong thread) 

Those maps are often misleading. For example, the one posted above includes a good amount of sleet at 10:1 ratio in the snowfall total. Not to mention that deterministic snowstorm predictions 10 days out almost never verify. I mean the pattern is going to be synoptically favorable for winter precipitation, but there is way too much uncertainty at this time to get anything (other than entertainment value) out of those snow maps.

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57 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Do I need to go address the children in the mid-Atlantic thread?

 

I'm alive and well...lol

Dude. i'm tellng ya....it's a lions den down there.  So many puffed chests.  We had a little fun early this morning w/ the maps above (and sprinkled in weenie analysis), and got trolled by some that hate this and that and think anyone that posts a snow map, doesnt know better or hasnt learned yet....makes me LOL.

and when you give good anyalysis, some wont recognize, unless a chosen one says it.

I posted maps, cause you rarely see em', and it was 6am.  When everyone woke up, most got out of the wrong side of the bed IMO.

I'd stay here if "my" crew wanted to chat about it, but hasnt been much chat in here (and yeah i know its quiet weather wise, but every other forum....even the SE is in a buzz about the weather.  I lost the battle here so i go play war.... B).  if only i didnt love talking about snow...

Its all good.  I can take it.  But i will tell you if this storm gets cancelled because of bad wishes over cat sitting.....I may need professional help.

Nut

 

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10 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Those maps are often misleading. For example, the one posted above includes a good amount of sleet at 10:1 ratio in the snowfall total. Not to mention that deterministic snowstorm predictions 10 days out almost never verify. I mean the pattern is going to be synoptically favorable for winter precipitation, but there is way too much uncertainty at this time to get anything (other than entertainment value) out of those snow maps.

just to be clear bud....it was posted PURELY for that EXACT purpose.  Not to mislead or forecast...

thats above my pay grade.  I like to have a little fun along the way.  Sorry if that offended anyone.

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