MAG5035 Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 0.8" on the day so far with wind occasional bouts of snow, temps have been dropping back through the 20s this afternoon. Definitely a wintry day out. Next clipper system slated for tomorrow night has looked more and more decent QPF wise on models and the prospect of a swath of a few to several inches across at least the western half of PA. This should be one that gets the Pittsburgh gang and the central counties (AOO/UNV) region their first synoptic event of the season. Model suite generally is putting out a few tenths of QPF in the western half with the Euro and GFS getting a swath of a tenth or so through most of Eastern PA except for the southern tier under the turnpike. NAMs a bit drier not getting much into the Sus Valley. Ratios look to be a factor (in a good way). 700mb level looks to be firmly in the DGZ and models put some modest 700mb lift into the SW quarter of PA with this system, coinciding with the best QPF not surprisingly. This should yield high SLR's, potentially more than 15:1 in some of the heavier bands that might develop. The Laurel's region could pile up some pretty high totals from this. Models don't get this enhanced lift into the Sus Valley, so ratios likely to be lower in snow that makes it over there but probably greater than 10:1, so I would look for a general 1-2" swath to make it across a good chunk of the rest of the state (including MDT and IPT over to IPT and ABE). Southern tier sites like THV and LNS might not get much (<1"). Still some time in the short term to hash out how this swath ultimately traverses PA (more I-80 corridor or turnpike, or in between). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 It’s coooooooold outside all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Quite windy tonight. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The GFS & RGEM at 0z give the Harrisburg area 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow night & more back towards State College & Altoona. CTP sounded very confident in their evening forecast discussion that the track of tomorrow night’s clipper looks ideal for our region to get a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GFS & RGEM at 0z give the Harrisburg area 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow night & more back towards State College & Altoona. CTP sounded very confident in their evening forecast discussion that the track of tomorrow night’s clipper looks ideal for our region to get a couple inches of snow. Yes indeed, as mentioned in their disco a track just to the south of PA is ideal to run a swath across PA when it comes to clippers. A track through or above PA typically takes the best precip north and also adds the downslope component east of the mountains with the westerly or northwesterly flow that would come with a low tracking north. Models generally are tracking the low on the mason-dixon line after it dives sharply southeastward from the upper Midwest, which may be a bit north for southern tier folks east of the mountains to see much more than an inch but otherwise the track is good for most. Best forcing still looks to reside in the SW quarter of PA. A likely advisory event (2-5ish) for the Pit gang and central counties on the I-99 corridor and 1-2" swath across most of the rest of central/eastern PA. Given potential for high ratios, I wouldn't be surprised to see warning totals pop up in some of the higher Laurels areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Yes indeed, as mentioned in their disco a track just to the south of PA is ideal to run a swath across PA when it comes to clippers. A track through or above PA typically takes the best precip north and also adds the downslope component east of the mountains with the westerly or northwesterly flow that would come with a low tracking north. Models generally are tracking the low on the mason-dixon line after it dives sharply southeastward from the upper Midwest, which may be a bit north for southern tier folks east of the mountains to see much more than an inch but otherwise the track is good for most. Best forcing still looks to reside in the SW quarter of PA. A likely advisory event (2-5ish) for the Pit gang and central counties on the I-99 corridor and 1-2" swath across most of the rest of central/eastern PA. Given potential for high ratios, I wouldn't be surprised to see warning totals pop up in some of the higher Laurels areas. There will undoubtedly be some high fluff factor with this disturbance. Places will be able to pick up a quick inch or two in heavier bands across Central and Western PA. Nam Nest shows 18-21:1 ratios on bufkit for the entirety of the event. Over 2" in accumulation as well. Not too bad for over I-80. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2-5" from @2001kx in areas west of UNV along I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 AFD suggesting advisories may be epanded for 3-4" for the Altoona/UNV corridor. Could be a sneaky fun little event tonight... thanks for the input mets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 looks like overnight runs have suppressed the warmup for next week. Not perfect, but acceptable IMO. Furthermore, if you like off hour runs....take a peek at 6z GFS if you believe in Christmas miracles...:). (BTW, look at surface maps...not 500's cause that "just aint right"....) surface is just eye candy but, but hey....its a long ways out and who knows. Just glad the warmup is getting muted (and verbatim, wasnt real bad anyways. Its hard to break into winter and stay there in December. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 awww what the heck.....its been a while since I've posted perty pics.....Happy Hump Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 surprised you're not loading sleds and heading to Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Clipper looks good on HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 hours ago, sauss06 said: surprised you're not loading sleds and heading to Erie need to get them ready. havent touched em..... after seeing 12z GFS.....they went to #1 on my list. ;0 Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: There will undoubtedly be some high fluff factor with this disturbance. Places will be able to pick up a quick inch or two in heavier bands across Central and Western PA. Nam Nest shows 18-21:1 ratios on bufkit for the entirety of the event. Over 2" in accumulation as well. Not too bad for over I-80. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2-5" from @2001kx in areas west of UNV along I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 WWAs hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Need a lil help. I'm in an active shooter incident management class and no time to check. What's the timing for start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Need a lil help. I'm in an active shooter incident management class and no time to check. What's the timing for start? CTP says after 8 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Some flurries starting here. Excited for the first decent snow event here at the new house. Got a snowblower yesterday while it was still on the down low that we were probably going to get several inches of snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 First storm too far west. This event too far south. 0-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Some flurries starting here. Excited for the first decent snow event here at the new house. Got a snowblower yesterday while it was still on the down low that we were probably going to get several inches of snow tonight. Hoping this can be a classic overperforming clipper... Thinking someone near us ends up with 6" from this one. HRRR's been consistent on that all day. Some green radar echoes already moving through Clearfield county but nothing falling here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Snow here in the Northeast corner of Cumberland county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Snow here in the Northeast corner of Cumberland county CTP just update us to 1-3". Nickels and dimes baby. Not a complaint in the world. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: CTP just update us to 1-3". Nickels and dimes baby. Not a complaint in the world. Nut I agree. I'm just hoping my daughter gets out of the Hockey game in Hershey and back to Millersville before roads get bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Flurries just started here in Lancaster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: CTP just update us to 1-3". Nickels and dimes baby. Not a complaint in the world. Nut KUNV updated to 3-5" Light snow falling now and sticking to everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, sauss06 said: I agree. I'm just hoping my daughter gets out of the Hockey game in Hershey and back to Millersville before roads get bad hmmm...if they are gettting their arses whooped....text her and tell her to drive fast and take chances.....till first flake falls....then slow your roll n enjoy the winter landscape... j/k about the driving fast, but id get her out ahead of whatever she can. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Flakes are a flyin' here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 We're off and running pretty quickly. Moderate to heavy snow falling and probably working on about a half inch in the opening 30-45 min of the steady snow. Just got the rest of my outside lights done just as the snow started falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: CTP just update us to 1-3". Nickels and dimes baby. Not a complaint in the world. Nut Interesting...I'm still at less 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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