Blizzard of 93 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 22 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro weeklies tonight look fantastic ! The pattern presented on the weeklies begins about 10 days from now & it continues throughout early January. All of the telleconnections seem to be lining up for a wintry pattern in our region. Hopefully the run up to the holidays will produce some snow this year. Hello ? Is there anyone out there ? This upcoming pattern change is approaching & it looks more impressive with each model run! The last 2 runs of the GEFS now show 3 to 5 inches of snow by the end of the 16 day run. The EPS is improving each run as well. The good posters on the Mid Atlantic forum are very optimistic about the coming pattern. Pro Mets like JB & DT are fired up about the pattern as well. I would love to hear from some of our very own good posters as to their thoughts on the coming pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hello ? Is there anyone out there ? This upcoming pattern change is approaching & it looks more impressive with each model run! The last 2 runs of the GEFS now show 3 to 5 inches of snow by the end of the 16 day run. The EPS is improving each run as well. The good posters on the Mid Atlantic forum are very optimistic about the coming pattern. Pro Mets like JB & DT are fired up about the pattern as well. I would love to hear from some of our very own good posters as to their thoughts on the coming pattern change. Just picked up some new studded winter tires for the car...bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hello ? Is there anyone out there ? This upcoming pattern change is approaching & it looks more impressive with each model run! The last 2 runs of the GEFS now show 3 to 5 inches of snow by the end of the 16 day run. The EPS is improving each run as well. The good posters on the Mid Atlantic forum are very optimistic about the coming pattern. Pro Mets like JB & DT are fired up about the pattern as well. I would love to hear from some of our very own good posters as to their thoughts on the coming pattern change. It does look like we’re in for a couple of shots at some winter weather around the 11-18 December time frame. I’m very busy finishing up hauling salt and equipment out to snow sites. We have more properties this year including a big HoA in Enola. Going to have 8-9 guys plus myself on site during a plowable event. I hope these patterns continue to show up, improve and ultimately verify. Would be a great start to the winter for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hello ? Is there anyone out there ? This upcoming pattern change is approaching & it looks more impressive with each model run! The last 2 runs of the GEFS now show 3 to 5 inches of snow by the end of the 16 day run. The EPS is improving each run as well. The good posters on the Mid Atlantic forum are very optimistic about the coming pattern. Pro Mets like JB & DT are fired up about the pattern as well. I would love to hear from some of our very own good posters as to their thoughts on the coming pattern change. Yep, we'll go from 60 degrees and sunny to 28 and snow in a week. 2 hours ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said: It does look like we’re in for a couple of shots at some winter weather around the 11-18 December time frame. I’m very busy finishing up hauling salt and equipment out to snow sites. We have more properties this year including a big HoA in Enola. Going to have 8-9 guys plus myself on site during a plowable event. I hope these patterns continue to show up, improve and ultimately verify. Would be a great start to the winter for us Now you're entering in my hood. Hopefully you and your crew make some $$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Everyone's favorite LSV news outlet, WGAL just addressed the potential for Arctic blast late next week. The threat seems real now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 The modeling is certainly in pretty good agreement with a major shift in the pattern and associated arrival of true winter cold by the middle of next week.. as they drive a commanding western ridge (+PNA) as well as decent ridging downstream just below Greenland. The PNA ridge definitely looks to have more of an influence in our sensible weather though, as it sets up a direct route for a significant arctic air intrusion. Details are a bit different between GFS/Euro.. the GFS seems to have more amplification in the western ridge but generally the results are similar. Now in terms of taking advantage of this cold air with any notable storms.. I'm not too sure. It doesn't at this point have a particularly stormy look to it, at least for now. The southern stream looks to stay pretty dormant, and the MJO doesn't look to support charging that up any attm (in the wrong phases). Probably going to have to go to the northern stream for any events. Good chance of seeing the first area-wide widespread snow of the season in the next 8-14 days but probably in the form of a clipper or minor event. At any rate, we're looking at a much different first part of December or so than the last couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 12 hours ago, MAG5035 said: The modeling is certainly in pretty good agreement with a major shift in the pattern and associated arrival of true winter cold by the middle of next week.. as they drive a commanding western ridge (+PNA) as well as decent ridging downstream just below Greenland. The PNA ridge definitely looks to have more of an influence in our sensible weather though, as it sets up a direct route for a significant arctic air intrusion. Details are a bit different between GFS/Euro.. the GFS seems to have more amplification in the western ridge but generally the results are similar. Now in terms of taking advantage of this cold air with any notable storms.. I'm not too sure. It doesn't at this point have a particularly stormy look to it, at least for now. The southern stream looks to stay pretty dormant, and the MJO doesn't look to support charging that up any attm (in the wrong phases). Probably going to have to go to the northern stream for any events. Good chance of seeing the first area-wide widespread snow of the season in the next 8-14 days but probably in the form of a clipper or minor event. At any rate, we're looking at a much different first part of December or so than the last couple winters. Do you see any chances of a change over with the system next Tuesday/Wednesday? I’ve seen it talked about by other sources (PA Weather Action & S&S). Looked like the GFS had that look last night on the happy hour run and continued with it overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 13 hours ago, MAG5035 said: The modeling is certainly in pretty good agreement with a major shift in the pattern and associated arrival of true winter cold by the middle of next week.. as they drive a commanding western ridge (+PNA) as well as decent ridging downstream just below Greenland. The PNA ridge definitely looks to have more of an influence in our sensible weather though, as it sets up a direct route for a significant arctic air intrusion. Details are a bit different between GFS/Euro.. the GFS seems to have more amplification in the western ridge but generally the results are similar. Now in terms of taking advantage of this cold air with any notable storms.. I'm not too sure. It doesn't at this point have a particularly stormy look to it, at least for now. The southern stream looks to stay pretty dormant, and the MJO doesn't look to support charging that up any attm (in the wrong phases). Probably going to have to go to the northern stream for any events. Good chance of seeing the first area-wide widespread snow of the season in the next 8-14 days but probably in the form of a clipper or minor event. At any rate, we're looking at a much different first part of December or so than the last couple winters. Looks like we're going to have a pretty prolonged stretch of winter weather incoming given the ensemble looks and the newest Weeklies. Couple of hitches here and there when it comes to the blocking aspect, which is expected at this point. Blocking in general can be more variable and hard to obtain longevity of that magnitude. That being said, Pac looks fine and the end of the ensemble runs look like they are just reloading as the height field over the top is still pretty solid looking. Weeklies are pretty lovely if you like cold and some snow chances. I just want to see the magnitude of the cold verify. Then we can get those vort maxes to rotate down the backside of the trough toward the east coast. Thinking at least a few will give the sub forum a chance at some snow in the form of a clipper. Bigger storm potential is still muddy as the details on timing of specific energy pieces will have to be hashed out later in time. Looks like there will be a few though. Laurels look to be in a much better position obviously with upslope. Don't even have to mention the kind of LES that could occur. It's going to be a white scene near Erie, Venango and Warren counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Looks like we're going to have a pretty prolonged stretch of winter weather incoming given the ensemble looks and the newest Weeklies. Couple of hitches here and there when it comes to the blocking aspect, which is expected at this point. Blocking in general can be more variable and hard to obtain longevity of that magnitude. That being said, Pac looks fine and the end of the ensemble runs look like they are just reloading as the height field over the top is still pretty solid looking. Weeklies are pretty lovely if you like cold and some snow chances. I just want to see the magnitude of the cold verify. Then we can get those vort maxes to rotate down the backside of the trough toward the east coast. Thinking at least a few will give the sub forum a chance at some snow in the form of a clipper. Bigger storm potential is still muddy as the details on timing of specific energy pieces will have to be hashed out later in time. Looks like there will be a few though. Laurels look to be in a much better position obviously with upslope. Don't even have to mention the kind of LES that could occur. It's going to be a white scene near Erie, Venango and Warren counties. Yeah, I'm liking what were seeing for December as a whole. I'm ok w/ the relaxation of the blocking (as depicted) as the chances for something to pop also can occur during those windows. Furthermore, any relaxation seems to have a reload of the pattern as well. While Mag's right about the southern stream not really being active, multiple pieces of energy rotating into the trough from the northern hinterlands suggest potential for clippers and opps for at least mood flakes every few days. I'm very very happy to see what we are seeing....especially as we just turned the page to met Winter. If I lived in the snowbelt....I'd be rather giddy right now... and even though i dont, I still am wax up your skis....get the sleds ready....grease up your plow. Next week should have the board in full out weenie mode (especially those of us who often are too far SE, as opps are there for us as well. Regardless if you like mood snow for the holidays, it appears that we have an above normal opportunity to see some as we approach. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 The models today continue to look great for winter weather for at least the next couple of weeks. The ensembles are increasing snow amounts over our region & have the cold locked in. The Euro Op run at 12z had around 6 inches of snow in the Susquehanna Valley & around 3 inches up towards State College & Altoona by the end of the 10 day run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looks like our first legit chance of snow is in the Friday/Saturday time frame next week, with more chances thereafter. Should be plenty to watch and discuss before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 What’s good is a few days before Christmas it appears the pattern flips to more sedate, which actually helps with traveling purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 What’s good is a few days before Christmas it appears the pattern flips to more sedate, which actually helps with traveling purposes. Lol, 3 weeks away. Easily could be golfing in 50s weather or hoping I get into Harrisburg International before the blizzard hits.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looks like our first legit chance of snow is in the Friday/Saturday time frame next week, with more chances thereafter. Should be plenty to watch and discuss before Christmas. Nice look for early December.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 So how legit is this Friday/Saturday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: Lol, 3 weeks away. Easily could be golfing in 50s weather or hoping I get into Harrisburg International before the blizzard hits. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Oh yea, all conjecture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It may snow in SE Parts of the forum later this week. No need to panic..... no bread needed...... carry on. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: It may snow in SE Parts of the forum later this week. No need to panic..... no bread needed...... carry on. Nut The Euro weeklies tonight again lock in this cold pattern right through the first half of January. It is just a matter of time until this pattern puts down some snow across all of CTP. Once this front passes tomorrow night, let the games begin this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro weeklies tonight again lock in this cold pattern right through the first half of January. It is just a matter of time until this pattern puts down some snow across all of CTP. Once this front passes tomorrow night, let the games begin this winter! yeah i saw that they look rather tasty with largely below normal departures. spread the word....tell your snow loving friends. We need recruits in this here ghost town.... :(. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Been in a very benighn pattern since August thru November. Tables are turning to be a very active season I think. Not many storms of any import for a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 10 hours ago, pasnownut said: yeah i saw that they look rather tasty with largely below normal departures. spread the word....tell your snow loving friends. We need recruits in this here ghost town.... :(. Nut said its gone snow break out the booze and party favors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 38 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Nut said its gone snow break out the booze and party favors Well.....at least with all of the vorts dropping in every couple days, we can at least chat about the prospects of it. I do think in the next couple weeks, the lake effect areas may get a slight to moderate pummeling, and the rest of us see shots every few days. Gonna be festive none the least. I'm an outlier...bastard step kid in the MA forum, but the accept me (for the most part). My home is here though...just hate empty houses :(. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The GFS & Euro today at 12z both have a system next Tuesday that brings us a few inches of snow. This weekend there is a possible clipper that could provide some snow showers or light snow. The bottom line is that we are officially open for snow business in CTP now that this front is crossing the region today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 hours ago, pasnownut said: Well.....at least with all of the vorts dropping in every couple days, we can at least chat about the prospects of it. I do think in the next couple weeks, the lake effect areas may get a slight to moderate pummeling, and the rest of us see shots every few days. Gonna be festive none the least. I'm an outlier...bastard step kid in the MA forum, but the accept me (for the most part). My home is here though...just hate empty houses :(. Nut You're one of a select few who have ventured and succeeded to "fit in" down there. That has always been a good read and highly entertaining...so much better than the train wreck that is the NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 hours ago, maytownpawx said: You're one of a select few who have ventured and succeeded to "fit in" down there. That has always been a good read and highly entertaining...so much better than the train wreck that is the NYC forum. Well I may have but the meteo pecking order /hierarchy in there gets a bit old. Some can offer good disco but unless a chosen few say it, it often gets little response. It’s intentional and a shame. That said, there are a bunch of good folks down there as Mets and hobbyists alike. Short of the NE forum it could easily be the most informative forum on the board. All that aside I enjoy the disco and don’t care about my like count. Looking forward to hopefully carrying on multiple conversations in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 13 hours ago, maytownpawx said: You're one of a select few who have ventured and succeeded to "fit in" down there. That has always been a good read and highly entertaining...so much better than the train wreck that is the NYC forum. Nut's like Ferris Bueller, everyone loves him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 hours ago, sauss06 said: Nut's like Ferris Bueller, everyone loves him That's perfect! And I'm just like Ferris's best friend Cameron. We talk in here a lot about how over the past 10 years or so the I95 cities have been doing better with snow amounts than areas farther west into true central PA... Well, whatever happened to REAL cold fronts? I distinctly remember multiple times growing up where we would have a front come through and the temperature would fall 30-45 degrees in a matter of hours. I can't remember the last time we had a front come through where we went from say 45 down to 15 in a few hours. What is the reasoning for that? I'm asking you because you probably have about 25 journals stuffed with your weather records sitting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 11 hours ago, pasnownut said: Well I may have but the meteo pecking order /hierarchy in there gets a bit old. Some can offer good disco but unless a chosen few say it, it often gets little response. It’s intentional and a shame. That said, there are a bunch of good folks down there as Mets and hobbyists alike. Short of the NE forum it could easily be the most informative forum on the board. All that aside I enjoy the disco and don’t care about my like count. Looking forward to hopefully carrying on multiple conversations in the future. Tracking and talking about potential storms is a ton of fun. My wife is usually po'd with me right after a storm ends. To me, it's like Christmas night...all the anticipation and build up over the special event is over, and I feel worn out and depressed. She's like "well you got the snow you obsessively tracked for the past week and a half, aren't you going to enjoy it other than shovel?" I'm like...that's not the point. It's the chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 40 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Tracking and talking about potential storms is a ton of fun. My wife is usually po'd with me right after a storm ends. To me, it's like Christmas night...all the anticipation and build up over the special event is over, and I feel worn out and depressed. She's like "well you got the snow you obsessively tracked for the past week and a half, aren't you going to enjoy it other than shovel?" I'm like...that's not the point. It's the chase... Dude.....you nailed it. I just tell her next one is xxxx hours/days away and go back to my dungeon :). F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 46 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: That's perfect! And I'm just like Ferris's best friend Cameron. We talk in here a lot about how over the past 10 years or so the I95 cities have been doing better with snow amounts than areas farther west into true central PA... Well, whatever happened to REAL cold fronts? I distinctly remember multiple times growing up where we would have a front come through and the temperature would fall 30-45 degrees in a matter of hours. I can't remember the last time we had a front come through where we went from say 45 down to 15 in a few hours. What is the reasoning for that? I'm asking you because you probably have about 25 journals stuffed with your weather records sitting around. its great to have friends... i'm a lucky guy. oh, and dont look but the every reliable NAM is trolling hard to get us interested in more model runs for the weekend. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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