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April 1-3 Severe Threat


1900hurricane

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  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     South-central and southwest Texas

   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
     until 600 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...At first, a pair of thunderstorms moving out of Mexico
   will pose a threat for large, damaging hail and severe gusts.  With
   time, additional storm development is expected on either side of the
   international border, moving into an environment increasingly
   favorable for a tornado or two as well.  See SPC mesoscale
   discussion 396 for initial meteorological reasoning.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
   either side of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Del Rio TX to
   45 miles east southeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
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A lot of chasers starting to post on social media now the seriousness of tomorrow. I'm not saying people here should be saying the sky is gonna fall tomorrow, just weird how much caution is being used with wording in here. And especially with an area that hasn't had a major severe weather event in a few years. Other then flooding that is. I've seen a lot smaller events hyped more. Maybe the way the year has gone?

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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     South-central and southwest Texas

   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
     until 600 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

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11 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

A lot of chasers starting to post on social media now the seriousness of tomorrow. I'm not saying people here should be saying the sky is gonna fall tomorrow, just weird how much caution is being used with wording in here. And especially with an area that hasn't had a major severe weather event in a few years. Other then flooding that is. I've seen a lot smaller events hyped more. Maybe the way the year has gone?

For rather obvious reasons... chasers will hype a lot. Don't believe me? Check numerous PDS tor soundings on social media ;)

 

as a meteorologist it is important to try not getting caught up in hype games. High end potential exists but you have to consider the failure modes. Tomorrow could be a pretty epic day; last I checked however it seems some of the wrinkles will keep it from being an outbreak (of discrete tornadoes, that is).

 

chasers and enthusiasts don't need to consider practicing sound, good science, but hype is not good science. So when you see people like me tempering things a bit, just know where it's coming from  (: I'm not here to troll 

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For rather obvious reasons... chasers will hype a lot. Don't believe me? Check numerous PDS tor soundings on social media

 

as a meteorologist it is important to try not getting caught up in hype games. High end potential exists but you have to consider the failure modes. Tomorrow could be a pretty epic day; last I checked however it seems some of the wrinkles will keep it from being an outbreak (of discrete tornadoes, that is).

 

chasers and enthusiasts don't need to consider practicing sound, good science, but hype is not good science. So when you see people like me tempering things a bit, just know where it's coming from  (: I'm not here to troll 


I hear ya man, was just curious being the tone with other events seems different in here today. And most of the chasers I've seen posting about it can't chase it. Usually they go out of their way to call the day a bust, lol.
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Not very confident we will be able to squeeze a high risk out of this. Perhaps at 1630z if confidence increases in a larger impacted area. Both MDT risk probability areas are too skinny and small to accommodate or even warrant a high risk. Regardless of the silly weenie semantics, should be a fun/interesting day to track. 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0516 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 021016Z - 021215Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 1030-11Z FOR  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX.  ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE  
DISCUSSION AREA.  
  
DISCUSSION...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOCATED IN CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF WW 107 ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN MCS WITH THE  
LIKELIHOOD FOR MCV FORMATION IN THIS COMPLEX, GIVEN AN EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE.  MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL CLOUD-TOP  
COOLING PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM  
THE VICINITY OF KAUS TO KHOU IS OCCURRING WITHIN STRENGTHENING  
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM  
SECTOR.  A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED  
RICH MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST  
TX OVERNIGHT, WITH ONGOING DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST  
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.   
STRENGTHENING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE  
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX WILL SUSTAIN  
STRONG BULK SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH  
BOWING LINES AND SUPERCELLS.  SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME  
MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD  
MIDDAY.  THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL,  
AND TORNADO THREATS THROUGH THE DAY.  
  
..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2017  
   

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 108
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   555 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Parts of central and east Texas

   * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until
     100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted
   overnight west of San Antonio will likely begin to organize into
   more of a bowing line with time, with an attendant increase in the
   damaging wind risk.  Embedded circulations will also pose a tornado
   risk.  Ahead of the line of storms, more isolated cells now forming
   in the Houston to Austin corridor will shift northward with time,
   and some could become supercells capable of producing a few
   tornadoes later this morning.  Large hail will also be possible with
   the stronger storms.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Hondo TX to 40 miles
   south southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 107...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.
ww0108_radar_big.gif

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817   
ACUS01 KWNS 021251  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 021249  
  
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0749 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017  
  
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS  
TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND  
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL  
TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
ENHANCED RISK AREA...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL/NORTHEAST  
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY WITH  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.   
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA, IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF LARGER  
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TRACK.  THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW  
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  
  
...A COMPLEX, BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WEATHER EPISODE  
WITH TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TODAY  
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...  
  
...MCS PATH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN  
LOUISIANA TODAY...  
A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN THE  
PROCESS OF EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX IN RESPONSE  
TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN.   
PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH, A LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS  
PERSISTED OVERNIGHT NEAR DEL RIO, WITH COLD POOL FORMATION BECOMING  
MORE APPARENT WITH TIME WITH THIS CLUSTER.  PERSISTENT DIABATIC  
HEATING WITH THE CLUSTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO MESOLOW/MCV FORMATION AS  
THE CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE  
FRONT, IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  
  
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID  
70S) BENEATH A REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME IS CONTRIBUTING TO  
STRONG BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS  
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TX.  THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD  
IN TANDEM WITH THE MCS, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BOWING  
CHARACTERISTICS.  EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MCS, LOW-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT AN  
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE  
MORNING.  THE MORNING WARM-ADVECTION STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY  
ELEVATED, THOUGH GRADUAL SURFACE WARMING THROUGH MIDDAY AND STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS.  THE  
NET RESULT OF THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION SHOULD BE AN  
INTENSIFYING/BOWING MCS WITH MERGING CELLS AND AN INCREASINGLY  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
  
...IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE MCS TRACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING  
FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...  
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAKE  
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY FROM EAST TX INTO  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA, IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE MCS PATH.   
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND  
POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM THE MCS  
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.  ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN LA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  
   
..LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT  
  
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING INTO  
TONIGHT FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA, AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD  
FRONT.  THIS CONVECTION WILL FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR  
SUPERCELLS, THOUGH STORM INTERACTIONS SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH  
INTO ANOTHER BAND/LINE.  THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS, AS WELL AS  
CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE, WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING  
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVERNIGHT INTO MS, WHILE THE CONVECTIVE  
BAND COULD APPROACH WEST-CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST AL NEAR SUNRISE.  
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0904 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 021404Z - 021630Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM LATE  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A PORTION OF EAST TX. A TORNADO  
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA BY  
16Z, AND A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. THE NEW WATCH  
MIGHT ALSO REPLACE THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 108.  
  
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING NUMEROUS DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE  
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM  
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT  
LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN LA THROUGH EASTERN TX. THE STORMS NORTH OF THE  
WARM FRONT ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, WHILE ACTIVITY ALONG AND  
JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROBABLY INGESTING  
NEAR-SURFACE-BASED INFLOW PARCELS.   
  
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STORMS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT  
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER  
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX, BUT MAY STILL POSE A SHORT TERM LARGE HAIL  
THREAT. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DIABATIC WARMING MAY COMMENCE  
BY MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST TX, CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER BOUNDARY  
LAYER DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE  
SLOWLY NORTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO  
FAR WESTERN LA IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION  
OF AN UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH. INCREASING  
0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE RESULTING FROM THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND  
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN  
INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES  
AND TORNADOES AS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM  
FRONT.  
  
..DIAL/HART.. 04/02/2017  
   

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NOT PDS

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1035 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA  
  EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL  
  600 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS  
    TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75  
    MPH POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATCH  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE  
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN THOSE STORMS THAT FORM IN THE  
WARM/HUMID AIR.  

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