Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Wow... 90/70 tornado probs... somewhat surprised this is not a PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Per NWS SHV (NWSChat)...High Risk upgrade coming at 1630z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Wow... 90/70 tornado probs... somewhat surprised this is not a PDS watch. I'm glad a PDS was considered and they let us know that. The fact it went non-PDS is interesting. Glad to see them hold back a little and not overuse the PDS designation. I think everyone should be taking the stock Tornado Watch seriously. The danger of even having PDS is that people start to ignore "lesser" threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Memphis Weather said: Per NWS SHV (NWSChat)...High Risk upgrade coming at 1630z... That would make it even stranger that there is no PDS, unless High risk is further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Memphis Weather said: Per NWS SHV (NWSChat)...High Risk upgrade coming at 1630z... Dude... that is so not supposed to be shared publically. There is only DISCUSSION, no official decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Memphis Weather said: Per NWS SHV (NWSChat)...High Risk upgrade coming at 1630z... Well maybe we see a PDS after all. Hard to see a high risk being called for but no PDS. Maybe the criteria differ enough to make it happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 VAD out of HOU now very impressive stuff ahead of line is concerning..the line is now weak and broke up perhaps that dry air aloft is puunching in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Well the watch is till 6PM CDT, so i am thinking the SPC is going to watch how it evolves, i think its possible that an PDS watch coming out later for mix of significant tornado and wind damage potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1107 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017 DISCUSSION TOR WATCH ISSUED FOR AREA UNTIL 7 PM, BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. SPC HAS ALSO UPGRADED A PORTION OF THIS AREA TO HIGH RISK FOR SVR WX AS WELL. AS EVIDENT FROM LOOKING AT SHV 12Z RAOB WHICH WAS NOT EVEN INDICATIVE OF TSTMS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, AND CURRENT WIDESPREAD STG/SVR STORMS IN AREA ATTM, THIS EVENT IS RAPIDLY UNFOLDING. LCH 12Z SOUNDING DOES SHOW A BLEND OF STG INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH LOW LVL SHEAR, WHICH HAS TRANSLATED NWD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND STILL UPPER 50S NORTH. SE WINDS OVER GULF SUSTAINED 25 KTS THUS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. RAIN TOTALS ALREADY ONE TO TWO INCHES EAST TX AND NW LA WITH A LOT MORE RAINFALL COME, LIKELY VERIFYING FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THRU THE OVERNIGHT./VII/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 PDS or not, a 90/70 is extremely serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Dude... that is so not supposed to be shared publically. There is only DISCUSSION, no official decision. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1107 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017 DISCUSSION TOR WATCH ISSUED FOR AREA UNTIL 7 PM, BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. SPC HAS ALSO UPGRADED A PORTION OF THIS AREA TO HIGH RISK FOR SVR WX AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxDanny said: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1107 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017 DISCUSSION TOR WATCH ISSUED FOR AREA UNTIL 7 PM, BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. SPC HAS ALSO UPGRADED A PORTION OF THIS AREA TO HIGH RISK FOR SVR WX AS WELL. Yeah, some 15 minutes after that chat message was posted. Certain message sare fine to share, but the message shared before that was when there was only DISCUSSION, not a decision on a high risk. I've got better things to do, but that was a pretty dumb thing to do and put the author at risk of losing his NWSChat access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED FROM PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTH TEXAS TO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ..SUMMARY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, SEVERE WIND, AND SEVERE HAIL WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT CROSSED CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS IS LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT IS ADVANCING INTO EAST TEXAS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM AHEAD OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED TO THE CLUSTER -- FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY REGION WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION PLUME. THIS PLUME OF WARM ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHOSE ACCOMPANYING MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM IS EMERGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD, THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL FACILITATE POLEWARD RETURN OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- E.G., 15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO PER LAKE CHARLES 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. AS SUCH, AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO A PRECIPITATION-REINFORCED WARM FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM PART OF EAST-CENTRAL TX EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. WITH OPEN-WARM-SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW BECOMING APPARENT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MATURE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS IS WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 300-400 M2/S2 AMID STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND INCREASING BUOYANCY WILL EXIST. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS INTERACTING WITH THIS WARM FRONTAL ZONE AROUND PEAK HEATING, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES -- ACROSS THE NOW-UPGRADED HIGH RISK AREA. THE SIGNIFICANT-TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION/CONFLUENCE WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THAT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS AND FAR SOUTHERN AR. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE, MESO-VORTICES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WARRANTS EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ..COHEN.. 04/02/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Yeah, some 15 minutes after that chat message was posted. Certain message sare fine to share, but the message shared before that was when there was only DISCUSSION, not a decision on a high risk. I've got better things to do, but that was a pretty dumb thing to do and put the author at risk of losing his NWSChat access. And how would they really find out who it is? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: And how would they really find out who it is? lol The internets, man. Anyhow, let's keep the discussion on what lay in front of us, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 850/650 helicity readings now in eastern TX per SPC meso page. Sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 More worrying about me than the actual event about to unfold. Bizarre.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Impressive Effective Storm Relative Helicity values already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Bow/outflow now surging may undercut some of the discrete storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Possible tornado near Shelbyville, Texas, moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Doesn't a tor watch automatically become a PDS tor watch per definition if it is within an area upgraded to High risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1156 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1245 PM CDT * AT 1156 AM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JOAQUIN, OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CENTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 NWS Sherveport reporting radar-confirmed tornado near Center, Texas, moving Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 new discrete cells rapidly developing over south central LA already trying to get little hooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Upgrade to high risk, but no huge cities involved, so The (alleged) Weather Channel drops coverage. Good job, good effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said: Upgrade to high risk, but no huge cities involved, so The (alleged) Weather Channel drops coverage. Good job, good effort. Came here to say this. Haunted churches. Asinine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Upgrade to high risk, but no huge cities involved, so The (alleged) Weather Channel drops coverage. Good job, good effort.Can't get over that, I don't care who's involved, it's a frigging high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 ACUS11 KWNS 021723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021722 LAZ000-TXZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TX AND FAR WESTERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109... VALID 021722Z - 021845Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 109 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THROUGH 1830Z, THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SURROUNDING THE LUFKIN AREA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AREAS AROUND SHREVEPORT AND NATCHITOCHES. DISCUSSION...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM NACOGDOCHES COUNTY TX TO NATCHITOCHES PARISH LA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH OPEN-WARM-SECTOR CONFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NORTHWARD TO THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING ALONG RELATED CONVERGENCE BANDS IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR, AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING TOWARD THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MATURES AHEAD OF A REMNANT SQUALL LINE CROSSING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX, TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2 NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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