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Ginx snewx

Millennial kid of April Fools obs and pics

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4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Above average after such a warm winter. Not too shabby 

Barely above but yes.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

464 per that horrible WSI RPM

To be fair-the snow maps on all guidance for BOS was similar for this event. I am interested in what is measured today.  I'm accumulating.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I blew chunks in this one.

A Schwartz special of humble pie.

To be fair, this was a tough one

i should have stuck with my original 6-10" here.    I'm at around 7", eyeballing things

The warm tongue really screwed things

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Two systems in a row that showed big hits for eastern and northeast mass...this one looks to turn out similar to the last one..which is a big under performance compared to modeling.    

 

I mean even at 2:00 this morning, the Euro gave that area a big hit...don't think that's going to pan out again. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Two systems in a row that showed big hits for eastern and northeast mass...this one looks to turn out similar to the last one..which is a big under performance compared to modeling.    

 

I mean even at 2:00 this morning, the Euro gave that area a big hit...don't think that's going to jab out again. 

The models have been ****ty lately

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Steady -SN since about 9 AM after a 60-minute pause.  Might be accumulating on the earlier 2", but not on any other surfaces, including hardwood branches.  Still 27" at the stake, so it's easy to enjoy the paste bomb pics from points S and W.

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I blew chunks in this one.

A Schwartz special of humble pie.

What was your final snow fall?

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Up to 5'' on the deck which hasn't been cleared. Prob more on the grass. My 5-10'' for this area is going to work out though admittedly not for the right reasons. I was surprised at how quick and sleet came in and how long it took to wash out. 

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4 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Is it being paranoid when they really ARE out to get you?

IMG_0056.PNG

This situation/scenarios is so marginal that the urban heat island could be factoring in the ptype algorithm number - just a guess...

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7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What was your final snow fall?

All along in the back of my mind, I was saying to myself..."trust your seasonal outlook; a huge event here will put you out of range".

All things being equal when there is a razor thing margin for error as in this instance, I am going to forecast within the context of my seasonal outlook moving forward because I trust my skill in that regard a great deal.

APRIL FOOLS FINALE.png

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All along in the back of my mind, I was saying to myself..."trust your seasonal outlook; a huge event here will put you out of range".

All things being equal when there is a razor thing margin for error as in this instance, I am going to forecast within the context of my seasonal outlook because I trust my skill in that regard a great deal.

 

It was a tough forecast. Esp your hood. Hindsight is always 20/20 but there were some good reasons to go pretty bullish there. The killer ended up being the midlevels. We expected that you'd probably mix but not for as long as you did and not as far north....that created a bit of a domino effect in that now you wasted some of the really good CCB rates between about 3am and 8am and when we did finally change to snow, the more-than-expected warm midlevels had skunked the depth of the SGZ to make it less efficient. We probably could have overcome that anyway if we just nuked like crazy after 12z but the storm just didn't give us that one final tuck we probably needed to completely cover our imperfections prior to 12z. 

It's just one of those storms. You'll have more of them. You just hope you maybe learn something and maybe it will help eliminate a bust or two in the future. But they are still going to happen. Just part of the game. I'm not sure if there is really a golden nugget to learn from this storm either. Sometimes we end up hearing cliches like "always predict the warmth to go further north"...well that's fine except when it doesn't happen (ala 2/2/15 and 12/16/07). Each case has its own uniqueness. This had redeveloping midlevel centers too so it wasn't as easy as expecting warmth further north like I'm a prototypical SWFE.  

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Not that anyone was expecting anything remotely close to that once-in-a-lifetime event, but it was an apt thread title Ginx:

Millennial kid of April 97... tons of social media hype... none of the meat and substance of the original:

Beacon_Hill_April_1997.jpg.a31a73cdc425485adb2388fc742cd68f.jpg

Beacon Hill, April 1, 1997

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Close to 5.5 inches if you cleaned the board here in N andover after 130 am after several hours snow then sleet then  (when the brief period of transition to snow gave me 3/4 in 1/2hr) then 1/2 sleet over nite then since 9am i've been gettin crushed pretty nicely.

thou depth is compacted nicely

 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was a tough forecast. Esp your hood. Hindsight is always 20/20 but there were some good reasons to go pretty bullish there. The killer ended up being the midlevels. We expected that you'd probably mix but not for as long as you did and not as far north....that created a bit of a domino effect in that now you wasted some of the really good CCB rates between about 3am and 8am and when we did finally change to snow, the more-than-expected warm midlevels had skunked the depth of the SGZ to make it less efficient. We probably could have overcome that anyway if we just nuked like crazy after 12z but the storm just didn't give us that one final tuck we probably needed to completely cover our imperfections prior to 12z. 

It's just one of those storms. You'll have more of them. You just hope you maybe learn something and maybe it will help eliminate a bust or two in the future. But they are still going to happen. Just part of the game. I'm not sure if there is really a golden nugget to learn from this storm either. Sometimes we end up hearing cliches like "always predict the warmth to go further north"...well that's fine except when it doesn't happen (ala 2/2/15 and 12/16/07). Each case has its own uniqueness. This had redeveloping midlevel centers too so it wasn't as easy as expecting warmth further north like I'm a prototypical SWFE.  

The mid level tracks complicated things. How I would kill for those tracks in winter, but in this case we had a ~800mb warm tongue screw us just enough even with those looks. We had just enough srly and SW flow ahead of them so as they closed off, it pulled the warmth N and then NW before become east and then eventually cooling. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The mid level tracks complicated things. How I would kill for those tracks in winter, but in this case we had a ~800mb warm tongue screw us just enough even with those looks. We had just enough srly and SW flow ahead of them so as they closed off, it pulled the warmth N and then NW before become east and then eventually cooling. 

Yeah the whole thing was a nuance of a few miles and probably a few tenths of a degree and a few hours of timing. Hard to really nail down that type of detail. In a lot of storms, those are non-factors. You'd have 4 or 5C of wiggle room and 50-100 miles of wiggle on track. But in this one we didn't have that and it was a close call between a really high impact paste bomb (esp for W and NW of BOS) and kind of a nuisance event. 

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I got enough snow so far this morning-at least a couple of inches on top of yesterday's inch or so.  Snowing still but winding down.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I got enough snow so far this morning-at least a couple of inches on top of yesterday's inch or so.  Snowing still but winding down.

Your local climo has definitely improved from your old neighborhood! Ground and car tops whitened but definitely < 1" here. Elevation and further inland obviously critical in this setup.

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35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All along in the back of my mind, I was saying to myself..."trust your seasonal outlook; a huge event here will put you out of range".

All things being equal when there is a razor thing margin for error as in this instance, I am going to forecast within the context of my seasonal outlook moving forward because I trust my skill in that regard a great deal.

APRIL FOOLS FINALE.png

What did you finally get from the event?

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BL temps were certainly an issue. Even in areas that stayed all snow, much was lost on the warmer surfaces. 

I warned about this several days ago, but caveats need to be taken seriously when you have these early mid level occulusions and quick vertical stackers. I don't like em--they are not "clean" in the warm and cold sectors, and contain broad circulations that are often contaminated with warm air intrusions. Where is the CCB ?-- well it's there--sort of. The problem is, it cut itself off --cut off  as in cut off from the cold air--more than a day ago and hence the lack of cold air funneling into the mid levels and ultimately down to the surface. And worse still, positive feedback never really gets going--where are those UL height falls (surface HP) on the back side of this? Trick question...The worst thing you can do --forecasting wise--with a storm like this is perceive it as your stereotypical nor'easter. 

Also there were many people warning about the inaccuracy of snow maps in an event like this. Eventually that rationale was thrown out --eye candy trumped objectivity---and we couldnt go one model run without having to look at one. Those maps certainly lured us in, like a subtle trap.

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