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April 2017 Obs/Discussion.

195 posts in this topic

29 minutes ago, Trent said:

Today is the 31st day this year in Cleveland with a high at or above 60 and it's only April 17! An average year should have only had 11 days thus far. Previous record was 27 days in 1945. 2017 is definitely continuing the torch pattern. 

Wow.  Quite a difference in Chicago with 21 days.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wow.  Quite a difference in Chicago with 21 days.

Detroit is only at 18 days, 10 of which have been in April. Didn't realize it was that different in Cleveland. 

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wow.  Quite a difference in Chicago with 21 days.

 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit is only at 18 days, 10 of which have been in April. Didn't realize it was that different in Cleveland. 

There have been a lot of fronts this year that have got hung up along I-80/90.

Columbus has had 42 days this year at or above 60, which is also a record for them.

The breakdown at CLE this year by month:

Jan - 4

Feb - 9 

Mar - 7

Apr - 11

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1 hour ago, Trent said:

 

There have been a lot of fronts this year that have got hung up along I-80/90.

Columbus has had 42 days this year at or above 60, which is also a record for them.

The breakdown at CLE this year by month:

Jan - 4

Feb - 9 

Mar - 7

Apr - 11

Wow. Yes I do remember some of the fronts hanging.

Detroit breakdown:

Jan: 0

Feb: 5

Mar: 3

Apr: 10

 

Interestingly Detroit edged out Cleveland by 0.6" in the snow department this year and a few inches last year. This is rare since cleveland is in the snowbelt. It has been no secret that cleveland has been missing out on a lot of the synoptic hits the last few years but it appears, at least the airport, hasn't had as much lake effect as is normal. Detroit had handily beat out cleveland in snow depth for the last numerous winters, so I do assume much of CLE snow still was of the lake variety.

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Leaf out is in full effect here.

In fact, with the warm weather / sunshine continuing and the higher dewpoints returning midweek, I suspect the majority of the trees will be full bloom by the end of the week.

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Interesting thing going on with the lake cooling today.  Take Waukegan and Gary for example.  Both places are in close proximity to the lake and fairly far behind the boundary, and yet it's 49 in Waukegan and 66 in Gary.  At first I was wondering if Waukegan was cloudy or something but both places are sunny/mostly sunny.  I would've bet my life on a bigger drop at GYY by now.  Mother nature manages to throw a surprise from time to time.

A similar thing happened here today.

After rising to 68*F with a SW wind, temps dropped to 58*F behind the lake breeze front with a NE wind at DET

Meanwhile, DTW continued rising from 68*F to 71*F. BTW, with 850mb temps of only 5*C and mid-level clouds moving in by mid-afternoon, today had damn impressive mixing heights for that to even happen.

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

Leaf out is in full effect here.

In fact, with the warm weather / sunshine continuing and the higher dewpoints returning midweek, I suspect the majority of the trees will be full bloom by the end of the week.

The trees are blooming fast. But if by full bloom you mean leafed out like summer, I disagree. 

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The trees aren't showing any signs of budding yet.  Maybe some maples that have a tinge of red at the tips, especially at a distance. A lot of birds have returned as well. 

Winter isn't quite done yet... another heavy, wet snow possible.  I wouldn't be shocked to see 10-12" imby.

MQT_Snow.png.0eeb2790c5634f6a3b98e94b6b9279ba.png

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The trees are blooming fast. But if by full bloom you mean leafed out like summer, I disagree. 

I'm picturing more like where we were at the end of the March 2012 torch.

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56 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'm picturing more like where we were at the end of the March 2012 torch.

That makes more sense. It's actually to a point now where I don't remember what a normal leaf out is. 2012 was ridiculous and while there is no official record, I can't imagine anything other than 1945 coming close to that early leaf out. And then 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016 did not have leaf outs (aside from a rogue tree here and there) until May. The past 4 years had all been early May leaf outs but 2013 would be the most interesting because it was a SOLID 6 WEEKS later than the year prior!

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Leaf out is progressing nicely here.  Being several miles inland probably helps.

The other thing is that I can't believe the amount of dandelions.  It's a sea of yellow in some areas.

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43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Leaf out is progressing nicely here.  Being several miles inland probably helps.

The other thing is that I can't believe the amount of dandelions.  It's a sea of yellow in some areas.

Same here.  They weren't very prevalent until the last week or so.  Leaves on the trees are definitely growing like crazy.  Starting to get that warm season look now with all the green everywhere.

Hit 75 today.  Another beautiful day with lots of sun.

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12 hours ago, weatherbo said:

The trees aren't showing any signs of budding yet.  Maybe some maples that have a tinge of red at the tips, especially at a distance. A lot of birds have returned as well. 

Winter isn't quite done yet... another heavy, wet snow possible.  I wouldn't be shocked to see 10-12" imby.

MQT_Snow.png.0eeb2790c5634f6a3b98e94b6b9279ba.png

It's amazing how there are so many deciduous trees up there with such a short growing season. Basically, the trees are bare about 6 months out of the year in Detroit. It's more like 7-8 months in the UP, your way being closer to the 8 months.

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15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's amazing how there are so many deciduous trees up there with such a short growing season. Basically, the trees are bare about 6 months out of the year in Detroit. It's more like 7-8 months in the UP, your way being closer to the 8 months.

And, in an average year, some trees aren't completely leafed out until June, and then already turning color in September.  I believe this year will be a couple weeks earlier than normal, as the area is running +4.8 for the month.

Models differ on precip amount/type later tonight and tomorrow. 12z NAM and WRF nails the Huron's here and the Keweenaw with a foot or more (although I've noticed the wrf often overdoes upslope qpf), while most other models generally have 5-6" of wet snow in the higher terrain of Marquette, Baraga, and Keweenaw counties. MQT going pretty conservative siding with the GFS... not a lot of population in the higher terrains of Marquette and Baraga, so a bust wouldn't be a big deal to many.

wrf-arw_asnow_ncus_48.thumb.png.124a1aaaf1e8dedbda7d776098b63364.png

namconus_asnow_ncus_24.thumb.png.bc27bd98f18749cc06d6819fadd8565b.png

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_12.thumb.png.39fb1931f6fdd3531697322f1786417c.png

 

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Highest dewpoints of the season locally so far. Only 60F but it feels downright muggy compared to the dry air we've had for most of spring so far. 

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Picked up 0.68" with this morning's storms.  Had some pretty nice CG action with those.  A large cottonwood tree a few miles outside of town took a strike and got split down the middle.  

Still a little north of the warm front, but we've warmed up to 71/64.  The air has a notable humid feel to it now.

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34 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up 0.68" with this morning's storms.  Had some pretty nice CG action with those.  A large cottonwood tree a few miles outside of town took a strike and got split down the middle.  

Still a little north of the warm front, but we've warmed up to 71/64.  The air has a notable humid feel to it now.

56/47 in MSN right now. Amazing temp and dew differences with these early season warm fronts.  Feels like a typical cool early spring day here.

 

Hoping for some nice elevated thunderstorms overnight

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Sitting in the lake cooled airmass after being nice earlier.  Will get a nice surge overnight as the front comes back north.

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Sitting in the lake cooled airmass after being nice earlier.  Will get a nice surge overnight as the front comes back north.

Yeah the thermal ridge plowing eastward later on looks pretty sweet on the models.  

We're going to get back-doored here in a few hours, as the LE front is shown to make it even this far southwest.  Cool down shouldn't last more than an hour or so, as the boundary looks to stall near the QC before retreating back northeast.

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19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the thermal ridge plowing eastward later on looks pretty sweet on the models.  

We're going to get back-doored here in a few hours, as the LE front is shown to make it even this far southwest.  Cool down shouldn't last more than an hour or so, as the boundary looks to stall near the QC before retreating back northeast.

The raw model output has temps surging into the mid 60s here during the predawn hours, which looks entirely reasonable if not somewhat underdone with 925 mb temps rising to near 20C and likely won't have full decoupling.  Really wouldn't be surprised to see something crazy like 70 at 5 am.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The raw model output has temps surging into the mid 60s here during the predawn hours, which looks entirely reasonable if not somewhat underdone with 925 mb temps rising to near 20C and likely won't have full decoupling.  Really wouldn't be surprised to see something crazy like 70 at 5 am.

That would be a very impressive rebound.  Hope it happens.

Icy blast from the east just hit here.  Wind picked up, and the temp dropped from the upper 60s to 64 so far.  Dew dropped from the season's highest of 64 back down to 59.  

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

That would be a very impressive rebound.  Hope it happens.

Icy blast from the east just hit here.  Wind picked up, and the temp dropped from the upper 60s to 64 so far.  Dew dropped from the season's highest of 64 back down to 59.  

Pneumonia front?

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1 minute ago, Natester said:

Pneumonia front?

Haha, not quite that here as it is a little more meager than it was when it came off LM.  Kind of got a taste of what it's like to live near LM though, and I gotta say I'm not overly fond of it lol.  Would be nice in July though. :guitar:

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

That would be a very impressive rebound.  Hope it happens.

Icy blast from the east just hit here.  Wind picked up, and the temp dropped from the upper 60s to 64 so far.  Dew dropped from the season's highest of 64 back down to 59.  

Still very warm south of the front.  

il_sfc.gif.22baf7be502c635067ad5966317e3378.gif

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This system was a bust here..... 0.00".  Convection couldn't sustain itself in the capped warm sector.  We got hit hard by the last system, though, so we didn't need any additional rain.

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