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NJwx85

April 2017 Observations and Discussions

676 posts in this topic

8 hours ago, Paragon said:

Chris, I guess it matters a lot more out where you are, because that far east a SW wind has a much larger trajectory over open water.  Out here it got to 84.6 by 1:30 (and I live about a mile south of Sunrise Highway.)  Also, it's more urbanized here.

 

It made it to 84.3 here and I'm about a mile from the ocean.

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The original idea of no 80's Friday due to the warm front getting stuck south of us looks like it will win out. Our next chance of 80's will have to wait until the last few days of April or May.

 

f39.thumb.gif.9b21f3306f493db62f1e4a85390406d0.gif

 

 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The original idea of no 80's Friday due to the warm front getting stuck south of us looks like it will win out. Our next chance of 80's will have to wait until the last few days of April or May.

 

f39.thumb.gif.9b21f3306f493db62f1e4a85390406d0.gif

 

 

Yeah, forecast dropped to only 62° for me. Maybe my earlier idea of not seeing any 70's for awhile wasn't so far-fetched.  

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7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, forecast dropped to only 62° for me. Maybe my earlier idea of not seeing any 70's for awhile wasn't so far-fetched.  

Plenty of high pressure to our Northeast with the recent -AO to keep the marine influence going.

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_1.thumb.png.94d1629c446dfa2ce454fd4c3c082e18.png

 

 

 

 

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Reports this AM of lots of icebergs in the shipping lanes this year, the most in a while.  That's almost always a result of entrenched HP over Labrador and the Maritimes, and it correlates with a cool spring and summer historically.

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9 hours ago, nzucker said:

Any sleet mixing in with rain? Rain seemed "loud.."

I don't think so but I had loud rain too.  I had to go outside to do some stuff and the drops were huge for a while, maybe that was it.

 

'You' can keep the cool spring because that usually also means wet and unpleasant but I'll take the cool summer.  

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Next 8 days to be about +4degs. (59 vs. 55).

FWIW: The CFS sub-weeklies show only BN  5day/10day chunks starting May 5th.    The monthlies still have not caved for May however.   But,,  unless you think we are headed for the warmest year in history, some of the next 8 months are going to surprise as BN.

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35 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Didn't see talk anywhere on this yet- First Atlantic tropical storm of the year has formed. Way out there. Arlene 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/202031.shtml

Go to the WeatherBell public video area and see what JB has been saying about this out of season, warm at the base only core low.

https://www.weatherbell.com/

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Classic April backdoor-warm front stall pattern just south of us. One day a small positive departure and the next small negative. The marine influence will prevent several stations from getting an April freeze. ISP is tied for the highest minimum in April at 34 degrees. Only the 5th time at ISP that there was no April freeze since 1964.

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Next 8 days keep monthly record alive at +5 (60 vs. 55)

20x4.9 = 98     8x5.0 = 40   or =+138 surplus  with two days left to reach +150,  ie. +6 on those last two days of the month.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Classic April backdoor-warm front stall pattern just south of us. One day a small positive departure and the next small negative. The marine influence will prevent several stations from getting an April freeze. ISP is tied for the highest minimum in April at 34 degrees. Only the 5th time at ISP that there was no April freeze since 1964.

Pretty interesting that our whole area hasn't see a Frost or Freeze advisory.  Many of us had near freezing temps this month (I got down to 32 on April 8th), but that was before the growing season started.

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30 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Pretty interesting that our whole area hasn't see a Frost or Freeze advisory.  Many of us had near freezing temps this month (I got down to 32 on April 8th), but that was before the growing season started.

This year is the second earliest last freeze of the season in my area of SW Suffolk during the 2000's. My last freeze was back on 3-24. Spring bloom is ahead of schedule here with many  spring song birds arriving. Also had the first frog calls of the season.

SW Suffolk last spring freezes since 2000:

Earliest. .....3-22-06

Average....  4-4

Latest ......4-18-14

2017.........3-24

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This year is the second earliest last freeze of the season in my area of SW Suffolk during the 2000's. My last freeze was back on 3-24. Spring bloom is ahead of schedule here with many  spring song birds arriving. Also had the first frog calls of the season.

SW Suffolk last spring freezes since 2000:

Earliest. .....3-22-06

Average....  4-4

Latest ......4-18-14

2017.........3-24

I've been hearing the Peepers occasionally for a couple weeks now.  That's when you know Spring has arrived.  My last freeze was on the night of April 8th (Saturday), which is exceptionally early for my area.  

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23 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I've been hearing the Peepers occasionally for a couple weeks now.  That's when you know Spring has arrived.  My last freeze was on the night of April 8th (Saturday), which is exceptionally early for my area.  

For only a couple weeks?  I was hearing them before the blizzard, maybe because I live along the water?

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days keep monthly record alive at +5 (60 vs. 55)

20x4.9 = 98     8x5.0 = 40   or =+138 surplus  with two days left to reach +150,  ie. +6 on those last two days of the month.

the signal for late month heat is very strong

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png

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2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

What forecast called for 80's?

Forky was mocking posters for saying the pattern looked average to slightly below average temperature wise and then said it would continue trending warmer and warmer for today. 

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Three month NWS outlook was posted yesterday.  I'm never sure how accurate or useful these are but AN is probably as good a guess as any. NWS has these three month outlooks out for the next year on the climate prediction page. There inst a single panel that predicts anywhere in the US to be BN for any three month period for the entire year. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php

off01_temp.gif.cb2b84ba141089fd1840f93da6fb5f1e.gif

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Forky was mocking posters for saying the pattern looked average to slightly below average temperature wise and then said it would continue trending warmer and warmer for today. 

i said next weekend would and it has

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the signal for late month heat is very strong

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png

i pasted the eps and the board is showing an old gfes image instead

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