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April 2017 Observations and Discussions


NJwx85

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55 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

For only a couple weeks?  I was hearing them before the blizzard, maybe because I live along the water?

Yeah, I heard the first Peepers going back 2, maybe 3 weeks ago.  It seems they usually show up around very late March into early April around here.  Could be your location like you said.  The Katy-Dids, or bush crickets, usually wait until it stays consistently warm at night.

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1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, I heard the first Peepers going back 2, maybe 3 weeks ago.  It seems they usually show up around very late March into early April around here.  The Katy-Dids, or bush crickets, usually wait until it stays consistently warm at night.

No crickets here yet either.  The night before the blizzard I was outside and heard the peepers and thought how they were in for a rude awakening that week.  Such a blah day out there today.  Picked up .60 in the bucket as of 8am though which brought me to .81 for the week 

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7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

No crickets here yet either.  The night before the blizzard I was outside and heard the peepers and thought how they were in for a rude awakening that week.  Such a blah day out there today.  Picked up .60 in the bucket as of 8am though which brought me to .81 for the week 

Yeah, once you hear the Crickets, Summer has basically arrived.  

Gloomy here too.  That nice soaking rain helped wash away the pollen dust at least.

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Whether the warm spots hit 90 or not for the end of the month will down to the location of the high. The EPS has more of a SE flow while the OP Euro goes SSW. You can see the spread between the OP and EPS near the end of the run.

 

KEWR_2017042100_nx_240.thumb.png.323ca910d98bf65f555cfad20fba143a.png

Looks like we stay in the 40s/low 50s for the next 4-5 days. Sunday and Monday look particularly chilly. Major heat possible for the final days of month.

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20 hours ago, nzucker said:

Looks like we stay in the 40s/low 50s for the next 4-5 days. Sunday and Monday look particularly chilly. Major heat possible for the final days of month.

Don't be surprised if we go right back to the 60 this weekend if we get some breaks of sun. The magnitude of the late month warm up for any given location will depend on whether the flow is more SE or SW in your area.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Don't be surprised if we go right back to the 60's tomorrow as we downslope with some breaks of sun. Later in the month has the potential for the first 90's of the season if the flow becomes SW. It will depend on how HP lingers near the maritimes which would turn the flow more onshore here instead.

Tomorrow will probably be the warmest of the upcoming four days with a westerly flow and thus lighter cloud cover. Probably near 60F before we slip back into the mid 50s for Sunday-Tuesday. If I had to guess, tomorrow is the warmest day of the stretch with a high of 61-62F, Monday and today are the coldest with highs around 50F.

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On April 21, 2017 at 11:33 AM, nzucker said:

Tomorrow will probably be the warmest of the upcoming four days with a westerly flow and thus lighter cloud cover. Probably near 60F before we slip back into the mid 50s for Sunday-Tuesday. If I had to guess, tomorrow is the warmest day of the stretch with a high of 61-62F, Monday and today are the coldest with highs around 50F.

My guess is that Tuesday may be the coolest of the bunch after today with the low coming up the coast with the stronger onshore flow and rain.

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that Tuesday may be the coolest of the bunch after today with the low coming up the coast with the stronger onshore flow and showers.

Certainly possible. The forecasts have been WAY off lately...too cold on the AN days and too warm on the BN days. Today was originally forecast to be in the 60s by the NWS, and you and Forky discussed 80s, which verified as 50F overcast with cold NE winds.

I definitely think Monday and Tuesday could remain in the 40s with strong enough onshore flow, overcast, and showers.  Should be pretty nasty though I tend to enjoy the last vestiges of winter.

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You wonder if a piece of the arctic cold over SE Canada (-25C 850s on the south shore of Hudson Bay) will ever make an appearance in the NYC metro before dissipating later in spring. Those are extreme anomalies for this time of year. There is a decent chance a quick shot of heat is followed by a sharp cold front and MCS threat...6z GFS suggests this. Later, a high looks to build in to our northeast again, leading to a BDCF pattern.

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38 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Certainly possible. The forecasts have been WAY off lately...too cold on the AN days and too warm on the BN days. Today was originally forecast to be in the 60s by the NWS, and you and Forky discussed 80s, which verified as 50F overcast with cold NE winds.

I definitely think Monday and Tuesday could remain in the 40s with strong enough onshore flow, overcast, and showers.  Should be pretty nasty though I tend to enjoy the last vestiges of winter.

Most of the time the model runs had the warm front south today. That's why I mentioned last weekend that we may have to wait until the end of April or May for our next 80 which worked out. There were a few runs of the models that got the warm front through for today but that was short lived before they reversed themselves again. There has been a tendency for more high pressure to verify at times near the maritimes like we saw today. It's par for the course in spring especially when we get -AO dips. It's one of the rare times in recent months that the AO actually made it down to -1.

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Last week the under paid big, we shall see

It was pretty clear from about ten days ago that the wet pattern wasn't going to return until late this week. I could see that before I even left for Vegas. Things are right on schedule. 

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of the time the model runs had the warm front south today. That's why I mentioned last weekend that we may have to wait until the end of April or May for our next 80 which worked out. There were a few runs of the models that got the warm front through for today but that was short lived before they reversed themselves again. There has been a tendency for more high pressure to verify at times near the maritimes like we saw today. It's par for the course in spring especially when we get -AO dips. It's one of the rare times in recent months that the AO actually made it down to -1.

That one ECM run showed the warm front lifting north, but as you say, the majority kept it down by PHL/S NJ. A few miles in the position of the warm front can make a big difference in sensible weather this time of year...80s to the south of front, 40s to its north. 

AO has been stuck on positive since the SSW in late October. The unusual double +QBO is probably the main reason for the lack of blocking. Hard to see huge blocks with a +QBO, low solar, and La Nina. I suspect blocking returns next fall with a big shift to a weak, west-based Nino, -QBO, with the background of low solar activity and cooler global temps.

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23 minutes ago, nzucker said:

That one ECM run showed the warm front lifting north, but as you say, the majority kept it down by PHL/S NJ. A few miles in the position of the warm front can make a big difference in sensible weather this time of year...80s to the south of front, 40s to its north. 

AO has been stuck on positive since the SSW in late October. The unusual double +QBO is probably the main reason for the lack of blocking. Hard to see huge blocks with a +QBO, low solar, and La Nina. I suspect blocking returns next fall with a big shift to a weak, west-based Nino, -QBO, with the background of low solar activity and cooler global temps.

Something changed with the Northern Hemisphere pattern following the record breaking March 2013 -AO. The AO has flipped to a more positive state with only transient negative drops since that time. It's been 4 years since the AO dropped to -2 or lower for a monthly average. Over the same period there hasn't been two consecutive -1 months. The last time we went this long without two -1 months in a row was 2005-2009.

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Something changed with the Northern Hemisphere pattern following the record breaking March 2013 -AO. The AO has flipped to a more positive state with only transient negative drops since that time. It's been 4 years since the AO dropped to -2 or lower for a monthly average. Over the same period there hasn't been two consecutive -1 months. The last time we went this long without two -1 months in a row was 2005-2009.

Same thing with the NAO. We had huge blocking in Winter 09-10 (actually too much as the high heights cut off the cold), December 2010, January 2011, and March 2013. After that, it disappeared. May be a result of the QBO or the recovery from the previous low solar cycle (Cycle 24). 

We've had some great periods of -EPO/NPAC blocking that have allowed us to stay cold and snowy...13-14 and 14-15 both had powerful blocks. The record 27" on 1/24/16 was also a result of a favorable Pacific combining with a Kara Sea ridge. 

It would be nice if we saw a weak El Nino with traditional blocking next winter. Could be the coldest and snowiest winter in three years.

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38 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Same thing with the NAO. We had huge blocking in Winter 09-10 (actually too much as the high heights cut off the cold), December 2010, January 2011, and March 2013. After that, it disappeared. May be a result of the QBO or the recovery from the previous low solar cycle (Cycle 24). 

We've had some great periods of -EPO/NPAC blocking that have allowed us to stay cold and snowy...13-14 and 14-15 both had powerful blocks. The record 27" on 1/24/16 was also a result of a favorable Pacific combining with a Kara Sea ridge. 

It would be nice if we saw a weak El Nino with traditional blocking next winter. Could be the coldest and snowiest winter in three years.

Grand shift in the blocking regime from Greenland to NW Canada. You can see how the circulation change was associated  with the PDO going positive.

 

2009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013**  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015**   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54   1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40   2.62   2.35   2.03   1.25   0.52   0.45   0.56   1.88   1.17
2017**   0.77   0.70   0.74

912.png.ccab7e2e2d519bc299d1b6314c8d9a93.png

1316.png.cb92955f73ce3c87d286f1d9218b958d.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Grand shift in the blocking regime from Greenland to NW Canada. You can see how the circulation change was associated  with the PDO going positive.

 


2009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013**  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015**   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54   1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40   2.62   2.35   2.03   1.25   0.52   0.45   0.56   1.88   1.17
2017**   0.77   0.70   0.74

912.png.ccab7e2e2d519bc299d1b6314c8d9a93.png

1316.png.cb92955f73ce3c87d286f1d9218b958d.png

 

 

we got more snow from 2013-16 with a worse 500mb look...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

we got more snow from 2013-16 with a worse 500mb look...

The -EPO substituted for the the AO on many occasions. But to really deliver the goods for the historic January 2016 blizzard we needed the -AO. The lack of the -AO in early March prevented that big 20-30" jackpot from being along the coast. 

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17 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yeah so I missed the memo that said it was going to rain up here this morning, I thought today was a dry day and maybe some sun in the afternoon. 

Looking now like tomorrow will be the nicer day of the weekend with the potential to get back above 60 with some breaks of sun. Forecasts can change on a dime when you have a warm front stall near the area.

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looking now like tomorrow will be the nicer day of the weekend with the potential to get back above 60 with some breaks of sun. Forecasts can change on a dime when you have a warm front stall near the area.

No doubt on that but let's lock up a 10 day map that shows the heat coming though...:huh:

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20 hours ago, nzucker said:

You wonder if a piece of the arctic cold over SE Canada (-25C 850s on the south shore of Hudson Bay) will ever make an appearance in the NYC metro before dissipating later in spring. Those are extreme anomalies for this time of year. There is a decent chance a quick shot of heat is followed by a sharp cold front and MCS threat...6z GFS suggests this. Later, a high looks to build in to our northeast again, leading to a BDCF pattern.

You mean that Arctic cold that's causing record snowfall in Caribou, Maine? They had over 4 inches the other day.

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