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March 30 Severe Weather Potential


Hoosier

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24 minutes ago, tornadohunter said:

Looks like a wind event but there may be a brief windows for tornadoes as far north as i70. 

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Yeah, I think there's a shot in the northern target area closer to the warm front, perhaps even north of I-70 if enough destabilization occurs.

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Haven't really looked too hard into this event because I can't chase, but not too impressed with many of the forecast soundings in the instability axis for this sub.  Low-level wind fields are fairly veered on the HRRR runs that I've seen.  10% tor probs may be a little too robust north of the OH River IMHO.

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42 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Haven't really looked too hard into this event because I can't chase, but not too impressed with many of the forecast soundings in the instability axis for this sub.  Low-level wind fields are fairly veered on the HRRR runs that I've seen.  10% tor probs may be a little too robust north of the OH River IMHO.

10% tor probs dropped and enhanced risk sized down greatly.  Good call on the SPC's part.

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Based on WV imagery, surface obs and high resolution guidance, southern to central Indiana should destabilize decently this afternoon (1000-1500+ J/kg SBCAPE) with some breaks in the cloud deck.

Given the placement of a warm front, backing of low level winds and favorable deep layer shear, some robust convection could fire in the area by mid-afternoon. 

If any relatively discrete cells can interact with the warm front, a locally elevated tornado threat could develop in central Indiana. This may also extend into far western Ohio. 

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59 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Based on WV imagery, surface obs and high resolution guidance, southern to central Indiana should destabilize decently this afternoon (1000-1500+ J/kg SBCAPE) with some breaks in the cloud deck.

Given the placement of a warm front, backing of low level winds and favorable deep layer shear, some robust convection could fire in the area by mid-afternoon. 

If any relatively discrete cells can interact with the warm front, a locally elevated tornado threat could develop in central Indiana. This may also extend into far western Ohio. 

The cloud deck right along the Ohio River is clearing pretty quickly. I agree the area you outlined in S. IN will pose the biggest threat for anything discrete. I can see the potential extending into SW Ohio too depending on where/when the action initiates.

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1 hour ago, Quincy said:

Based on WV imagery, surface obs and high resolution guidance, southern to central Indiana should destabilize decently this afternoon (1000-1500+ J/kg SBCAPE) with some breaks in the cloud deck.

Given the placement of a warm front, backing of low level winds and favorable deep layer shear, some robust convection could fire in the area by mid-afternoon. 

If any relatively discrete cells can interact with the warm front, a locally elevated tornado threat could develop in central Indiana. This may also extend into far western Ohio. 

Thanks Quincy. I mentioned the warm front possibilities in a briefing to my spotters, fire, and law enforcement this morning.  The front may not make this far north, but it's nice to know that you concur. 

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33 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Thanks Quincy. I mentioned the warm front possibilities in a briefing to my spotters, fire, and law enforcement this morning.  The front may not make this far north, but it's nice to know that you concur. 

Agree on the Huntington area being iffy.  In Indiana, I'd watch that LAF-OKK corridor and eastward as that should be near where the frontal zone ends up.

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mini SUP alert ahead of the line for central IL

 

also thisSPC MCD 301755   
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-302000-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1255 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN...FAR NORTHERN KY...WESTERN OH  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 301755Z - 302000Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR  
SO, WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT AS WELL.  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH WILL  
LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO COVER THE POTENTIAL  
THREAT.  
  
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS  
HAVE INCREASED IN THE AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN IN OVER THE  
PAST HALF HOUR, SUGGESTING BOTH AN INCREASE IN THE FORCING FOR  
ASCENT AS WELL AS SOME DESTABILIZATION. WAVE STRUCTURE TO THE NEW  
CLOUDS SUGGESTS THE AREA REMAINS STABLE BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE  
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION  
AND AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  
  
STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN SAMPLED WELL BY  
AREA VAD PROFILES. RECENT DATA FROM IND AND ILX REPORTED 0-6 KM BULK  
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT, WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED  
UPDRAFTS. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES SHOULD LIMIT HAIL PRODUCTION WITHIN THESE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS  
BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE  
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THE  
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN  
THIS POTENTIAL THREAT, A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  
..MOSIER/GUYER.. 03/30/2017  

 

 

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Warm front is pretty well north of Cincy at this point-- air mass here is juiced (mid 70's going on 3+ hours of sun/mixed with thin clouds.....steady winds).... I knew something was cooking...you can just feel it and just took a look at SPC....definitely on my toes now the next 6 hours or so. Dew point only in the mid 50's...seems a touch low but what do I know.

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