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Storm Threat 3/31-4/1


NJwx85

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9 minutes ago, snywx said:

12-20" fell here from that event in 1997. I highly doubt thats gonna happen here lol. Maybe 12-20 flakes! 

Yeah this one seems to be more NE focused but hopefully you guys will cash in on something over the next 10 days.  If only this active pattern had happened in February lol.

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44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Who is predicting sleet for Long Island? I'm up in Rockland County (Sloatsburg), 35 miles northwest of the city, and the NWS has us as all rain, no mention of sleet even up here. The soundings certainly don't support sleet for us, let alone the city and Long Island

He might turn out to be right for at least some sleet mixed in at the start.  Check this out:

 

13 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

Mostly light rain currently. Some sleet mixed in over in jersey city. Wasn't expecting that.


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11 minutes ago, Paragon said:

He might turn out to be right for at least some sleet mixed in at the start.  Check this out:

 

13 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

Mostly light rain currently. Some sleet mixed in over in jersey city. Wasn't expecting that.


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The national weather service has a HWO for sleet with light accumulations. So they are mentioning it. 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Who is predicting sleet for Long Island? I'm up in Rockland County (Sloatsburg), 35 miles northwest of the city, and the NWS has us as all rain, no mention of sleet even up here. The soundings certainly don't support sleet for us, let alone the city and Long Island

Or...

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
315 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-311915-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
315 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is potential for brief periods of a wintry mix tonight through
Saturday. Little accumulation is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

$$

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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I hate New England

Boston under a Winter Storm Watch

This will be one that proves why Boston has the significantly higher snow average. Globals trended good for them today too, it'll probably be a nice event there. Sucks but can't change it. Whatever falls will be gone in 2 days anyway. 

That said it's unbelievable how good a run SNE has had for the last decade. 

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3 hours ago, Paragon said:

He might turn out to be right for at least some sleet mixed in at the start.  Check this out:

 

13 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

Mostly light rain currently. Some sleet mixed in over in jersey city. Wasn't expecting that.


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Look at the soundings right now. Besides the boundary layer being torched, 850mb and 700mb are torched too, so aloft sucks for frozen as well. This is a textbook rain sounding for late March/early April. So even if this were to start very briefly at the onset as a few sleet pellets mixed with rain, this is for all intents and purposes, an all rain event for the entire NYC metro area, even areas north and west of the city limits 

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10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not even remotely close

 

1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

Wow. Currently getting sleet/ice on the south shore. Anyone else nearby getting the same? Heard it pinging off the windows. Wasn't expecting 

Had a period of sleet earlier. Was 40/32 at the time.  

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Look at the soundings right now. Besides the boundary layer being torched, 850mb and 700mb are torched too, so aloft sucks for frozen as well. This is a textbook rain sounding for late March/early April. So even if this were to start very briefly at the onset as a few sleet pellets mixed with rain, this is for all intents and purposes, an all rain event for the entire NYC metro area, even areas north and west of the city limits 

Yes, we get. No need to beat a dead horse. I don't think anyone is expecting any type of frozen accumulation south of 84. Don't worry champ, it will be rain. 

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Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ007>010-012>020-027-PAZ054-060>062-070-071-
101>106-311945-
/O.COR.KPHI.FA.A.0002.170331T1600Z-170401T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Cecil-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-
Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Washington,
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold,
Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill,
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest,
Jim Thorpe, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
342 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of northern Delaware, northeast
  Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the
  following areas, in northern Delaware, New Castle. In
  northeast Maryland, Cecil. In New Jersey, Camden, Eastern
  Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris,
  Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern
  Burlington, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania,
  Berks, Carbon, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery,
  Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks,
  Western Chester, and Western Montgomery.

* From noon EDT today through late tonight

* Low pressure moving through the Mid Atlantic will lead to a
  swath of heavy rainfall along and to the northwest of the I-95
  corridor. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are
  expected with localized amounts to 4 inches possible. The
  heaviest rain is expected to move through the area from
  southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening.

* The heavy rainfall may result in flooding along area stream and
  creeks as well as urban and poor drainage flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
LF/JRK
 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

All models crush the Philly to NYC corridor with 2 inches of rain in a very short period of time late today....

Yeah based on current radar though it looks like the heaviest rains might be just NW of the major cities. Hard to project the radar that much though.

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11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Look at the soundings right now. Besides the boundary layer being torched, 850mb and 700mb are torched too, so aloft sucks for frozen as well. This is a textbook rain sounding for late March/early April. So even if this were to start very briefly at the onset as a few sleet pellets mixed with rain, this is for all intents and purposes, an all rain event for the entire NYC metro area, even areas north and west of the city limits 

I know but we did have sleet last night and this morning (and moderate sleet at that) which left slushy coatings on car tops.  They are forecasting more sleet tonight after midnight.

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15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Did anyway bother to get a measurement in Orange County on whatever sleet/snow/frozen crap that fell overnight? There's remnants of it on the lawn and deck but most has been washed away from the 34-35 degree rain since early morning.

Reports of slushy coatings of moderate sleet when the precip was heavier on LI also.

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