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HoarfrostHubb

Son of April Fool's Birch Bender

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is a valid concern.

Yeah I'm worried about rates tomorrow night...I could see like a marginal warm layer not being overcome because rates are too light...or the heavier rates are delayed too long so the WAA has time to penetrate further north. We'd probably get a dynamic crashing later on, but we'd "waste" a chunk of the heavier rates waiting for that to occur.

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

4-18" swing here

 Just ride whatever model and forecast gives MPM the least amount of snow.   That logic has worked out every winter since Oct 2011.  Lol.

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1 minute ago, Morch Madness said:

UKIE looks warmish at the surface but pretty cold at 850. That would really crush places from Ray up to PSH

It looks like a furnace to me at 850mb...until late in the game when it does crash and it looks like a period of heavy snow to end it. But the middle of the storm is warmer than the NAM even...it's been on the warmer envelope so far, but it hasn't trended cooler like I want to see. Which is weird, because once again, it is following the trend of early mid-level redevelopment...the track looks good. Maybe hair north of ideal, but still one that you'd like to see in SNE.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm worried about rates tomorrow night...I could see like a marginal warm layer not being overcome because rates are too light...or the heavier rates are delayed too long so the WAA has time to penetrate further north. We'd probably get a dynamic crashing later on, but we'd "waste" a chunk of the heavier rates waiting for that to occur.

That's my big concern. We ooze in warmer air during lighter rates and then the meat comes and waste some or a lot of it (depending on where you live) trying to cool those temps and waiting for winds to back around and cool off. I'm thinking the areas that flip to mix or rain near BOS may end as snow. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks like a furnace to me at 850mb...until late in the game when it does crash and it looks like a period of heavy snow to end it. But the middle of the storm is warmer than the NAM even...it's been on the warmer envelope so far, but it hasn't trended cooler like I want to see. Which is weird, because once again, it is following the trend of early mid-level redevelopment...the track looks good. Maybe hair north of ideal, but still one that you'd like to see in SNE.

This is driving me nuts. Does not make sense to me. 

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45 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Zucker, that GFS panel is 1 hr QPF now, not 6 hr. 

Whoops, here is what I should have posted...Sat AM precip still looks rather light. Hard to see .10-.25" QPF as marginal snow really accumulating on April 1st.

Screenshot_20170330-132234-360x640.png

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol... you're on the fringe so now we start trying to make this a mess everywhere

I've never been in the game for snow. I do think an icestorm is now becoming a distinct possibility. I just wouldn't be throwing big snow totals out unless you're HUnch on north 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks like a furnace to me at 850mb...until late in the game when it does crash and it looks like a period of heavy snow to end it. But the middle of the storm is warmer than the NAM even...it's been on the warmer envelope so far, but it hasn't trended cooler like I want to see. Which is weird, because once again, it is following the trend of early mid-level redevelopment...the track looks good. Maybe hair north of ideal, but still one that you'd like to see in SNE.

Yeah my bad, cleared my cache and now I'm looking at the right thing. I was wondering why 850 and 2m temps were so different. Quite a torch

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates.

And funky snow growth once things warm

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I'm half-expecting the Euro not to help us at all at 12z...prob a similar solution to 00z, maybe a bit slower, so it's warmer at some intervals and colder at others. Maybe slightly less snow which will convince some that this is definitely trending to crap...then 18z and 00z stuff comes in better and the 12z run is forgotten.

 

Kind of a maddening storm. We've had a lot of marginal systems this year and of course this one decides to be another.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You too! :maprain:

Nah, 850's looked ok here, Even on the toasty nam, We were -2.0°F at its warmest

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that's sort of what I mean too ... but, 

more at what I mentioned before.   Folks seem like they are assuming big QPF is going to verify and I'm seeing:

1 ...  QPF is not a particularly well performing metric in the models.  We all know this, so..  just be cautious not to elide that factor in our rush to pile up snow totals here.

2 ... the mechanics of this are midland in strength?  that doesn't lend well to to the NAM's 3" liq. equiv. out at Logan.  Not sure where all this is coming from given to all.  I'm looking up stream at rad and obs and so forth and I'm not seeing that verifying anywhere outside of a thunderstorm cluster(s).

I'd probably go with the models and consensus here as a sackless whisper in a loud din of people engineering history ... (just kidding - relax) and let the chips fall where they may. I'm not excited on this until I see blue tinted foggy dawn Saturday actually happening.  Of course... what if it rains hard anyway but the guidance flubbed the temperature handling ...there's that too -

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We saw this nicely when visibility went way up under 30+ DBZ echoes last storm around 3pm

Idk I had 3.5''/hr snow under 30 dBZ echoes. I wouldn't worry so much about funky snow growth for this one. We're saturated all the way through the column and don't have an H7 low driving through ALB.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the Euro significantly warms aloft, its time to reevaluate my range.

I think it will, given UKIE but hoping its minimal/ noise for our latitude

The other big thing is what it does with rates overnite friday, we cant afford that backing down much

I like 4-8 for 495 as of now

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Big dynamic cooling on the latest RPM run...it is getting heavy snow into CT early Saturday morning as things crash.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did the UK trend warmer in mid levels?

Yes. Even though the mid-level center trended south...lol. It was a bit obnoxious on the front end...so we'll see. I'm not totally buying that yet, though it's certainly in the back of my mind.

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8 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Idk I had 3.5''/hr snow under 30 dBZ echoes. I wouldn't worry so much about funky snow growth for this one. We're saturated all the way through the column and don't have an H7 low driving through ALB.

I know you did

I recall the obs , you had good snow growth and rates way longer than i did in LWM and my radar echoes were stronger

I was not sure what the culprit was but being about 20 miles wnw of me i figured i had crap snow growth while you were pounding dentrites under worse echoes

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