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HoarfrostHubb

Son of April Fool's Birch Bender

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Throws up a 20"-spot at MPV... lol I mean that's like ARW territory from what I saw on the SREFS.

Just saw that.  If that happens I believe that my birthday dinner at the Alchemist may not happen tomorrow night.:(

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It crashes to southeast of the Cape by 18z..so it would be snowing very shortly after 12z.

But what about the BL? That's a flood of warmth. Going to take a lot to cool 850 to the surface, for good accumulating snow.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What the hell just happened?

Its got like 2"+ QPF for a large area of Vermont now.

This is like 3x the amount the GFS has...and like 4 times the amount the GGEM has up here, lol.

ecmwf_tprecip_neng_11.thumb.png.7b077a3fc6e315040f84103e5096e1a1.png

is that snow for the dacks??? thats a huge area of 2+!

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

is that snow for the dacks??? thats a huge area of 2+!

There's def a good amount of sleet in there I think...once you get into VT it's mostly snow.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def a good amount of sleet in there I think...once you get into VT it's mostly snow.

I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. 

The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb.

But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy.

Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of.  I think that would be further south.

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From the freebies, it doesn't look like a whole lot of difference at 850mb wrt temps from what was posted here for the 00z. So at least that's good. 

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Just now, jbenedet said:

This is a pretty big win for the NAM so far, based on the 850 mb track and warmer mid levels.

Dude the NAM went like 50 miles south with the 850mb low track at 12z from its previous runs lol.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. 

The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb.

But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy.

Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of.  I think that would be further south.

Well it's def not as torched as the NAM...but there is a pretty good tongue of mid-level warmth into NY State...it kind of hits a brick wall though near the VT border...so there would prob be some brief mixing into VT but not a lot. Meanwhile on the same panel it's probably still snowing around Ray.

 

The QPF on the Euro def looks quirky to me...if anything H5 trended south this run, so I wouldn't have expected a big qpf bomb up in VT with a big sucker hole in CT. But who knows what it was doing this run...I get kind of annoyed when runs don't synoptically make sense. I remember there was a single run of the Euro before the March 2013 firehose that had a very similar sucker hole for precip covering almost all of SNE...except the convergence zone right on the coast of MA...and everyone freaked out and I was saying how it basically didn't look any different aloft, so there was no real reason to take it verbatim.

 

Its def a good run for NNe, but I'd prob sell the 2" qpf amounts and buy the 0.5" amounts in CT.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. 

The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb.

But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy.

Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of.  I think that would be further south.

GFS is also 2 inches QPF in the southern dacks...GGEM and RGEM are very dry and odd looking.  NAM is pretty wet and warm in the mid levels.

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Ha, you guys are addicted to clown maps. Dryslot or powderfreak prob have one to post...I don't use that site though so can't help.

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The changes I'm seeing 12z vs. 0z Euro:

H5 definitely ticked further south / southeast

H7 maybe a tick north

850Ts a tick colder in Boston area 6z-18z Saturday

Kuchera definitely is BETTER than 0z for northeast MA into Boston

 

 

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1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Wouldn't buy the Kuchera in ORH unless the midlevels are going considerably colder along with heavy precip rates and maybe elevation playing into the game. 

What? Kuchera will be less snow it prob spit out 8:1 ratios or something like that for orh.

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