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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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All rain here in Springfield AWT, hoping I won't need to break out the snow thrower for this one.  Looking to get some lime down on the lawn, still waiting for the plow piles to finishing melting out.  Tomorrow is April 1, I'm hoping to turn the garden over as soon as possible.

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39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not panicking....but I think you always have to maintain an open mind because I think that you would agree this science is indeed humbling.

You are great about always looking to learn, and that is a trait that you need to have in this hobby.

I didn't refer to you Ray 

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Life, really...you aren't learning, you're declining.

Some unknown person wiser than I once said, "A day I haven't learned something is a day I've wasted."

The "at least/most likely/potentially" numbers GYX for my area are zero/4/13.  Quite the spread for 12 hours before first flakes.  Maybe that's typical for very early/late season snows.

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Here is the evolution of the warmest layer in the 850-700mb section, which contains the problematic warm wedge, from 7pm tonight to 7am Saturday per the 00z EURO.

The sleet line is roughly the distinction between light and darker shading....kisses Essex CO, then retreats with the development of CCB....trended towards slightly more aggressive penetration early, but retreated faster once the CCB gets going:

7PM.png

1AM.png

7AM.png

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4 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

You think I can squeeze out 12" near Wilton/Greenville?

I would hedge more toward the upper end of a 5-10'' range there but wouldn't be surprised if that area went a little higher. Wouldn't expect it but also wouldn't be a total shocker. 

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RGEM is coming in colder too through 12 hours. Hopefully that means we can salvage a little more of the WAA portion in the pike region...though I'm still leaning toward a lot of pellets. It actually has some pretty heavy snowfall developing between 1pm and 3pm and ripping for several hours in the afternoon. I guess we'll see.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is coming in colder too through 12 hours. Hopefully that means we can salvage a little more of the WAA portion in the pike region...though I'm still leaning toward a lot of pellets. It actually has some pretty heavy snowfall developing between 1pm and 3pm and ripping for several hours in the afternoon. I guess we'll see.

I think daytime accumulation today is mainly relegated to elevations.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is coming in colder too through 12 hours. Hopefully that means we can salvage a little more of the WAA portion in the pike region...though I'm still leaning toward a lot of pellets. It actually has some pretty heavy snowfall developing between 1pm and 3pm and ripping for several hours in the afternoon. I guess we'll see.

Heh. This post pretty much sums up our confidence level. Can't even trust the rgem out 6 hrs...

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think daytime accumulation today is mainly relegated to elevations.

As long as rates remain garbage, then yeah...RGEM does show some legit heavy snow though for a few hours after 18z so that would accumulate I think in low elevations, but I'm skeptical of the rates it shows that early. I feel like most of the heavier stuff will wait until tonight. It's why I think the front end of this storm could be a pretty big underperformer compared to expectations. I'd probably consider it a win there if you can muster up 3 inches before a pelt-fest a little later.

 

HRRR does show some legit pounding S+ this evening even down to the southern MA border, so that would obviously be good, but I'm not sure if it is too cold. RAP is cold enough for snow too through mid-evening, but a little more precarious.

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