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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For this afternoon? I don't see a big deal unless it's a peltfest. I think the precip won't be all that heavy, but sleet disrupts operations. Logan is one of, if not the best in the country to handle snow. If there is one place you need to fly out of in winter wx...it's Logan.  They know what they're doing.

Good to know regarding Logan's cleanup crew. 

To be more specific, it's closer to evening, but I'm seeing pretty solid agreement on guidance that heavy frozen precip moves into Boston by 5 p.m. I'd be pretty shocked if there aren't significant delays and/or cancellations by that point....but that's just a guess obviously....

Should make for a hellish evening commute out of Boston metro as well..

 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I look at the big picture....so you look at placement of HP, low track and movement, 850,700, 500 lows etc....if I do that...it's a great argument for snows. Basically everything March 14 did not have on the coast. But then you dig deeper and see this sneaky, shallow warm layer. If I were to use the earlier reasons I stated to sway towards snow....I would say that those reasons are good ones to hedge snowier. However, given the subtle change in those 850-800 temps on guidance...it's definitely a reason to pause and think about it. If Logan got 1" or 8"...I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless  I see guidance cool...tough for me to be bullish....but it's normally a reason to lean bullish given those tracks. Go figure.

I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things.

Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I look at the big picture....so you look at placement of HP, low track and movement, 850,700, 500 lows etc....if I do that...it's a great argument for snows. Basically everything March 14 did not have on the coast. But then you dig deeper and see this sneaky, shallow warm layer. If I were to use the earlier reasons I stated to sway towards snow....I would say that those reasons are good ones to hedge snowier. However, given the subtle change in those 850-800 temps on guidance...it's definitely a reason to pause and think about it. If Logan got 1" or 8"...I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless  I see guidance cool...tough for me to be bullish....but it's normally a reason to lean bullish given those tracks. Go figure.

Any ideas as to what is the source/root cause of that warm layer? 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things.

Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh

That's how I feel. Of course I'm the one who needs to decide weather the business I work at stays open all day/tomorrow. It's in Burlington so I'm leaning to just closing tomorrow but we'll see, not an easy one to forecast.. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If I look at the big picture....so you look at placement of HP, low track and movement, 850,700, 500 lows etc....if I do that...it's a great argument for snows. Basically everything March 14 did not have on the coast. But then you dig deeper and see this sneaky, shallow warm layer. If I were to use the earlier reasons I stated to sway towards snow....I would say that those reasons are good ones to hedge snowier. However, given the subtle change in those 850-800 temps on guidance...it's definitely a reason to pause and think about it. If Logan got 1" or 8"...I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless  I see guidance cool...tough for me to be bullish....but it's normally a reason to lean bullish given those tracks. Go figure.

Thats what has been confusing me, it looks perfect wrt upper level movement then I look at surface and it puzzles me. Im starting to dig deeper at the mid level warming, soundings, etc but just not there yet. Im in the thought now though around the ct border through ma and on east, it will come down to like 1-2 degree when the ccb gets going...micro anlyzing each run today will just bleed my eyeballs at this point.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things.

Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh

well looking at HRRR doesn't seem its just CCB for you Ray, take a look

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things.

Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh

The annoying thing is how cold it is at 925-950mb. Just a phenomenal look in the low levels for an April 1 storm only to have it tainted by H8. I'm not confident either in how far the sleet line moves north/how long it stays there. The setup would argue that it gets to Rt. 2 at most and retreats from there quickly, and there are a lot of models that do that, but it's still persistent and pesky. Guess there isn't much to do other than wait and see what the dual pol trends look like later on. 

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Does anyone want to start and obs thread ? 

for this - 

it's snowing here in NW Middlesex co along rt 2.  Lightly, with well formed flitting aggregates that might be growing under the warm layer - if that is even factorable still/this early in the game.  Not sure on either, heh.  too many moving parts in this thing and I have a day job. 

But, area DPs are still sufficient that given some depths in the 1300' and 850 to surface thickness intervals, we can wetbulb further.  

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Does anyone want to start and obs thread ? 

for this - 

it's snowing here in NW Middlesex co along rt 2.  Lightly, with well formed flitting aggregates that might growing under the warm layer - if that is even factorable still/this early in the game.  Not sure on either, heh.  too many moving parts in this thing and I have a day job. 

But, area DPs are still sufficient that given some depths in the 1300' and 850 to surface thickness intervals, we can wetbulb further.  

 

LOl there is one already

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2 hours ago, nzucker said:

If the RGEM verifies won't be so many chuckles.

RGEM/NAM warm/west consensus is hard to ignore. Really difficult to discount considering how well that blend worked in 3/14. RGEM has been pretty good at seeing how tucked in these can get.

This, And yes, The GFS blew chunks in the 3/14 event and probably will again here, Mesos against the Globals.

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45 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Guidance has heavy snow moving into Boston by early afternoon. Going to be interesting nowcast, to say the least...

Rates --lack of visibility and ability to keep up with the cleaning--are going to cause significant delays at Logan this afternoon I think...

its spotty all day, Logan should be fine

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

well looking at HRRR doesn't seem its just CCB for you Ray, take a look

Not just HRRR. E MA gets thumped good this evening to midnight. The real issue is seeing what happens after that, particularly closer to Boston. 

Right now in Boston, looks like a thump- 2-4" sleet/snow through midnight then flip to mix rain and then finish with several hours of snow on the backend 1-3". In my opinion biggest wintry impacts will be first half for Boston metro, due to rates, and timing. Total 3-7", but the first half will largely be washed away by end of the storm. 

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I kind of figured the early onset panic would set in as will predicted yesterday. 

I'm not panicking....but I think you always have to maintain an open mind because I think that you would agree this science is indeed humbling.

You are great about always looking to learn, and that is a trait that you need to have in this hobby.

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42 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Any ideas as to what is the source/root cause of that warm layer? 

I mentioned earlier it's the srly flow ahead of this thing. As the mid levels close it helps to wrap it in. We eventually shut off the WAA and cool, but that's pretty much the story.  Most winter events start off with srly flow at 850-800 anyways, but given time mid year and antecedent airmass...we run into this problem. 

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