moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: It says people typically are asleep between 3:30AM and 5AM. 23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think the lack of posts is due to most of them not going to bed until a few hours ago. What time do you have to drive tomorrow? Even Rt 2 should be ok by later in the afternoon. Since when has sleep kept people from posting about an impending storm? My daughter's plan has us leaving around 7:30. 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm worried about sleet getting into S VT and SW NH. The GFS is cold, but I wouldn't touch it with a 10ft pole right now. RGEM/EC blend and call it a day. NCEP needs to go tabula rasa and start anew. I'm fully prepared for a ip-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 6Z GFS GW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 NCAR ens are turning this into a huge ice storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 RPM for Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm worried about sleet getting into S VT and SW NH. The GFS is cold, but I wouldn't touch it with a 10ft pole right now. RGEM/EC blend and call it a day. NCEP needs to go tabula rasa and start anew. I'm worried about going from light rain straight to sleet later. Still big bust potential with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take it. Like a man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Like a man That's a pretty nice Saturday here. I'm thinking that may be my best chance. Euro was pretty mild overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM for Jerry. Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Man I've had everything from 2-16" on those RPM runs posted here in the past 24 hours. How often is that thing run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Gfs is an isothermal snow bomb near BOS. Like X-Files...."I want to believe." But not sure I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Man I've had everything from 2-16" on those RPM runs posted here in the past 24 hours. How often is that thing run? Every 3 hrs. I treat it mostly as a nowcast tool. It's unstable Beyond 24 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a pretty nice Saturday here. I'm thinking that may be my best chance. Euro was pretty mild overnight. I think the front end will be pretty disappointing for most. Lots of sleet and kitchen sink precip. I'm most interested in the 6-10 hour period between 09z and 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Every 3 hrs. I treat it mostly as a nowcast tool. It's unstable Beyond 24 hrs out. Ah that makes sense. HRRR really likes the northern ORH Hills later today. East slopes of the Berks and ORH Hills with big elevational gradient despite widespread snow. Sleet storm ripping south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the front end will be pretty disappointing for most. Lots of sleet and kitchen sink precip. I'm most interested in the 6-10 hour period between 09z and 18z Saturday. Same here. I'm not expecting much overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 As we get closer to go time this is definitely starting to look more interesting for C/E MA than it is for W MA or S VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs is an isothermal snow bomb near BOS. Like X-Files...."I want to believe." But not sure I do. Isn't it doing the same for CT ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the front end will be pretty disappointing for most. Lots of sleet and kitchen sink precip. I'm most interested in the 6-10 hour period between 09z and 18z Saturday. Will i havent been following tbe trends regarding the first half of storm at all. Is this like a 1-3 or 2-4 deal for lwm by late evening or midnite or even less is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As we get closer to go time this is definitely starting to look more interesting for C/E MA than it is for W MA or S VT. I think S VT will be fine. Could be a bit iffy south of there but we will see. It's no lock that things work out over eastern areas either. I absolutely love the midlevel look early tomorrow but we still need to make sure things dynamically cool. The RGEM going warmer at 06z really bothers me. It started looking like that NAM run where it took forever to cool the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will i havent been following tbe trends regarding the first half of storm at all. Is this like a 1-3 or 2-4 deal for lwm by late evening or midnite or even less is likely. I would think way up in LWM should get that much by midnight. But I think sleet will get past them for a while. I just don't see a big WAA slug either. It's more like this steady light to moderate precip until the CCB starts taking over and really ups the rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think S VT will be fine. Could be a bit iffy south of there but we will see. It's no lock that things work out over eastern areas either. I absolutely love the midlevel look early tomorrow but we still need to make sure things dynamically cool. The RGEM going warmer at 06z really bothers me. It started looking like that NAM run where it took forever to cool the CCB. Will- are the NW RI hills and NE CT hills somewhat close to the Ma border a wild card; it looks like the should be able to pull 4-8. How much is sleet or ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I'm worried about sleet getting into S VT and SW NH. The GFS is cold, but I wouldn't touch it with a 10ft pole right now. RGEM/EC blend and call it a day. NCEP needs to go tabula rasa and start anew. The GFS way HORRIBLE with the 3/14 threat. Never saw the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I'm worried about sleet getting into S VT and SW NH. The GFS is cold, but I wouldn't touch it with a 10ft pole right now. RGEM/EC blend and call it a day. NCEP needs to go tabula rasa and start anew. The GFS way HORRIBLE with the 3/14 threat. Never saw the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Looks like the overnight runs held serve. 6z NAM cooled but who cares what's going on with that thing. Still a really odd look. SNH, RT 2, and NEMA crowd needs to start confidently chucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Looks like the overnight runs held serve. 6z NAM cooled but who cares what's going on with that thing. Still a really odd look. SNH, RT 2, and NEMA crowd needs to start confidently chucking. If the RGEM verifies won't be so many chuckles. RGEM/NAM warm/west consensus is hard to ignore. Really difficult to discount considering how well that blend worked in 3/14. RGEM has been pretty good at seeing how tucked in these can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 47 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm worried about going from light rain straight to sleet later. Still big bust potential with this storm. It could be an interesting difference between you and me with this one. But, I'm pretty sure we ping along with everyone else south of VT/NH. sn- 32.0* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, nzucker said: If the RGEM verifies won't be so many chuckles. RGEM/NAM warm/west consensus is hard to ignore. Really difficult to discount considering how well that blend worked in 3/14. RGEM has been pretty good at seeing how tucked in these can get. Its really not whether this tucks in or not though. All about the waa push from the primary and how quickly mid levels can cool afterwards when the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Isn't it doing the same for CT ? 18 minutes ago, Modfan said: Will- are the NW RI hills and NE CT hills somewhat close to the Ma border a wild card; it looks like the should be able to pull 4-8. How much is sleet or ice? In the silence of the responses, I can hear the sound of sleet hitting the pavement in the not so distant future. Ping. Ping. Ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, nzucker said: If the RGEM verifies won't be so many chuckles. RGEM/NAM warm/west consensus is hard to ignore. Really difficult to discount considering how well that blend worked in 3/14. RGEM has been pretty good at seeing how tucked in these can get. Lol RGEM chucks them high and far for the areas I just mentioned. I just don't think those areas have much to be worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Its really not whether this tucks in or not though. All about the waa push from the primary and how quickly mid levels can cool afterwards when the coastal gets going. Yeah they aren't that far west. It's all about that midlevel warm layer. They are just more aggressive wth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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