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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What the hell just happened?

Its got like 2"+ QPF for a large area of Vermont now.

This is like 3x the amount the GFS has...and like 4 times the amount the GGEM has up here, lol.

ecmwf_tprecip_neng_11.thumb.png.7b077a3fc6e315040f84103e5096e1a1.png

is that snow for the dacks??? thats a huge area of 2+!

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def a good amount of sleet in there I think...once you get into VT it's mostly snow.

I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. 

The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb.

But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy.

Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of.  I think that would be further south.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. 

The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb.

But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy.

Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of.  I think that would be further south.

Well it's def not as torched as the NAM...but there is a pretty good tongue of mid-level warmth into NY State...it kind of hits a brick wall though near the VT border...so there would prob be some brief mixing into VT but not a lot. Meanwhile on the same panel it's probably still snowing around Ray.

 

The QPF on the Euro def looks quirky to me...if anything H5 trended south this run, so I wouldn't have expected a big qpf bomb up in VT with a big sucker hole in CT. But who knows what it was doing this run...I get kind of annoyed when runs don't synoptically make sense. I remember there was a single run of the Euro before the March 2013 firehose that had a very similar sucker hole for precip covering almost all of SNE...except the convergence zone right on the coast of MA...and everyone freaked out and I was saying how it basically didn't look any different aloft, so there was no real reason to take it verbatim.

 

Its def a good run for NNe, but I'd prob sell the 2" qpf amounts and buy the 0.5" amounts in CT.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. 

The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb.

But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy.

Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of.  I think that would be further south.

GFS is also 2 inches QPF in the southern dacks...GGEM and RGEM are very dry and odd looking.  NAM is pretty wet and warm in the mid levels.

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