HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 What a disaster this thread has turned into... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think his point is that we have heavy precip rates. of course - that was my point - boy you're struggling with the reading comp today bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 lol at the tenseness in here. Bong hits and drinks for all to mellow out to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: You may have a little hydrometeor drag, but I don't think advect is the right term here. Sinking air warms...not cools. One of the big problems I think is models just flat out over doing the warmth at the sfc when H95 is relatively cold. I guess if the delta is high enough even sinking air from H95 could cause the sfc to cool (like a katabatic wind), but I think it's more of a case of latent cooling...whether there's still some room for wetbulbing to allow for a little evaporative cooling or in these isothermal paste jobs some latent cooling from partial melting. Of course with heavy precip rates you have strong lift and that's where you get most of your cooling dynamically. Thanks. I'm weakregarding the details of the exact physical processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: of course - that was my point - boy you're struggling with the reading comp today bro! No, my sarcasm detector failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 12z GFS is 2 inches of QPF at KGFL and cold....ton of snow in the higher elevations just to its NW. Is KGFL in NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. I'm weakregarding the details of the exact physical processes. Well to be fair, sometimes the met community tries to keep it simple and say "the precip brings down colder air from aloft.." But no, it has to do more with some wetbulbing and/or lift if the warm pocket is further aloft where the precip is manufactured. Don't worry about being too weak about the processes..it's definitely not handled properly as to not confuse the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: You may have a little hydrometeor drag, but I don't think advect is the right term here. Sinking air warms...not cools. One of the big problems I think is models just flat out over doing the warmth at the sfc when H95 is relatively cold. I guess if the delta is high enough even sinking air from H95 could cause the sfc to cool (like a katabatic wind), but I think it's more of a case of latent cooling...whether there's still some room for wetbulbing to allow for a little evaporative cooling or in these isothermal paste jobs some latent cooling from partial melting. Of course with heavy precip rates you have strong lift and that's where you get most of your cooling dynamically. Here's a sort of 'environmental feedback' related matter... I haven't seen any cloud products, but...I was under the impression that we are clear much of tonight, but may ceiling in enough near daybreak and onwards to 'cold cap' that radiatively induced low level cold. This was part and parcel to the Dec 23, 1997 snow bomb storm that dumped 10 to 24" in the interior in 27 F cold, when the (then) ETA (most reliant) was shooting for 2-3" of glop ending as rain. That sucker radiated down to 19 F then wall over with clouds at dawn, and the even entrance hours had it some 10 F busted cold when the tiny aggregates started choking densities ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, masonwoods said: Is KGFL in NY? Glens Falls, NY. Southern edge of the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, masonwoods said: Is KGFL in NY? yes basically the start of the SE Adirondacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well to be fair, sometimes the met community tries to keep it simple and say "the precip brings down colder air from aloft.." But no, it has to do more with some wetbulbing and/or lift if the warm pocket is further aloft where the precip is manufactured. Don't worry about being too weak about the processes..it's definitely not handled properly as to not confuse the public. The freezing height essentially lowers with latent cooling, wet bulbing, and perhaps low level lift. So it's easier for mets to sometimes say "it drags the cold air down". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Battle Royale cage match setting up somewhere near a town near you. Mets pulling out their hair, DOT scrambling to position trucks , good times in Spring in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well to be fair, sometimes the met community tries to keep it simple and say "the precip brings down colder air from aloft.." But no, it has to do more with some wetbulbing and/or lift if the warm pocket is further aloft where the precip is manufactured. Don't worry about being too weak about the processes..it's definitely not handled properly as to not confuse the public. I bet you're going to tell me the sun doesn't directly burn off fog too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No thanks. You always manage to resort to personal attacks though. Piss on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What a disaster this thread has turned into... LOL. This is a Pete special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What a disaster this thread has turned into... Disagreements. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: LOL. This is a Pete special. He's gonna get croaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Here's a sort of 'environmental feedback' related matter... I haven't seen any cloud products, but...I was under the impression that we are clear much of tonight, but may ceiling in enough near daybreak and onwards to 'cold cap' that radiatively induced low level cold. This was part and parcel to the Dec 23, 1997 snow bomb storm that dumped 10 to 24" in the interior in 27 F cold, when the (then) ETA (most reliant) was shooting for 2-3" of glop ending as rain. That sucker radiated down to 19 F then wall over with clouds at dawn, and the even entrance hours had it some 10 F busted cold when the tiny aggregates started choking densities ... euro has clouds increasing starting around 20Z with temps in the lower 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Disagreements. I like it. Chicken tastes good...Is 18" your chicken threshold? I think they live to cluck another day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 mmm, no. You're pulling the "thread disaster" trigger way prematurely there. Not that give a ratz ass - I'm on lunch... heh. Anyway, my biggest concern is if the models all bust too high with fall rates in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Disagreements. I like it. I like debating Steve....two friends can argue passionately, and all is forgotten once the snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Piss on? lol have a great true story. In 2009 we are skiing with friends , we pull into the woods to piss, one of the younger guys , 20ish, comes flying in the woods, does a yard sail, slides in between one of the guys legs pissing, looks up and says to him, better to be pissed on than pissed off. I nearly pissed my pants watching the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: mmm, no. You're pulling the "thread disaster" trigger way prematurely there. Not that give a ratz ass - I'm on lunch... heh. Anyway, my biggest concern is if the models all bust too high with fall rates in this. This is a valid concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like debating Steve....two friends can argue passionately, and all is forgotten once the snow falls. some know us, some don't. Man you could get an old fashioned blue bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Battle Royale cage match setting up somewhere near a town near you. Mets pulling out their hair, DOT scrambling to position trucks , good times in Spring in NE. A place like Greenfield or Brattleboro is literally looking at a forecast of 3"-12". Good luck with that. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is a valid concern. I'm interested to see what, if any changes, your final call entails. This one is a tough call in many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Chicken tastes good...Is 18" your chicken threshold? I think they live to cluck another day Yeah I think the chickens are safe...unless I get 17" of paste and the coop caves in. I'm leaning 6-12" up here. We'll see what the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: A place like Greenfield or Brattleboro is literally looking at a forecast of 3"-12". Good luck with that. Lol. 4-18" swing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: I bet you're going to tell me the sun doesn't directly burn off fog too. LOL, I just hear that a lot...Ray has a good grasp on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 4-18" swing here Go long and strong and down to get your damage on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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