ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM looks like a mess at BOS. The low seemed further SW on the crude ptype graphics that come out earlier..but seemed a little warmer aloft. You would need to see what the mid levels look like to see if it's dynamics or more of a warm tongue. Slow as hell on the RGEM...its way slower than 06z. Guess we'll find out how much snow it drops when the weenie maps that go past 48h come out. It was definitely south of the 06z, but it did look messier ptype wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Isn't the 0" the 10th percentile and 11" the 90th? So theoretically they're giving both a 10% chance. Yes and no. The scale is capped at 0" so the actual 10th percentile could be like -2 or -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 This will be razor close for nw ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Slow as hell on the RGEM...its way slower than 06z. Guess we'll find out how much snow it drops when the weenie maps that go past 48h come out. It was definitely south of the 06z, but it did look messier ptype wise. Yeah...interesting. Almost seems like the models want to go back to snow Saturday after it flips to mix or rain verbatim late Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I noticed nobody's posting the kuchera maps for this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 RGEM is way warmer at H85, but would never have guessed that looking at the mid-levels. They look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I noticed nobody's posting the kuchera maps for this one lol Not much difference i'm guessing is why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, DomNH said: RGEM is way warmer at H85. The low is actually SW of the 6z run, but seemed like more srly flow ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Hey, the NAM has 1.4" of freezing rain for ORH. That would do some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 See, back in the day ... circa mid 1990s... we didn't have all these pretty graphics and visual aids, and even the dissemination off the DIFAX (yes I said DIFAX!) where sometimes limiting ... We used these FRH gridded data outputs from the NGM and the then, ETA, to hone an interpretation of an event... In this case, if we saw this... 54110978858 10816 080431 46009900 60028965850 -3613 100230 45000098 ...this would be a blizzard (*if, one were not privy to the 800 to 700 mb pesky layer of warmth thing... which is in question anyway) ... But, point being, that's 1.37" of liquid equiv. falling in about 9 to 12 hours, in a snow column, with 30 kt sustained wind buffeting in to the side walls of Prudential Towar and Logan...Chelsea out to I-95...that's hard to do without sustaining < 1/4 vis for 3 hours. Yet, we have all these fancy interpretative products we use these days to elucidate the event in mind's eye, ...if perhaps only to distract us from these baser methods that used to rely upon.. Interesting.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 RGEM was about to go nuts after 12z it seemed. You can see the H7 low digging and 850 was cooling in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Haven't used this term in a while Valentines day 07/ but Sleet bi tch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: RGEM was about to go nuts after 12z it seemed. You can see the H7 low digging and 850 was cooling in NE PA. This is gonna wind up as a Saturday event at this rate based on how slow it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: RGEM was about to go nuts after 12z it seemed. You can see the H7 low digging and 850 was cooling in NE PA. Yeah it's definitely snow to mix to heavy snow. NAM was similar. That would be a shtshow impact-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is gonna wind up as a Saturday event at this rate based on how slow it was. UGH...I wanted a nocturnal deal, but that looks to be slipping....hopefully it is really ripping by the time the nasty sun begins its assault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM was about to go nuts after 12z it seemed. You can see the H7 low digging and 850 was cooling in NE PA. I saw that, had to rub my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is gonna wind up as a Saturday event at this rate based on how slow it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I saw that, had to rub my eyes. It's a lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I hate the trend to warm the mid levels....that is the only factor I care about, and could make this into a lame event really fast- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 RGEM definitely looks a lot warmer at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: RGEM definitely looks a lot warmer at 850mb I was afraid of the late jog north....like last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Good thing i guess, The RGEM is still well outside its skill range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: RGEM definitely looks a lot warmer at 850mb Definitely makes you a little more hesitant in tossing the NAM in the garbage. It's going to be a battle in the Rt. 2 area and north. Someone in the Monads dancing with the devil with the sleet line is going to bang out 18'' from this. Might be the biggest condo crusher I can remember in S NH if we dance with the devil but don't go over for a significant period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's a lot of rain not for the nw hills on the backside if it goes nuts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was afraid of the late jog north....like last event. Do you put much credence into that guidance? I'm not questioning it, I really don't know if this is something it is skilled at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Good thing i guess, The RGEM is still well outside its skill range. I heard that same BS with the last system.....palliative care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 RGEM really cut back on total snow QPF from the 6z run...also on QPF in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Do you put much credence into that guidance? I'm not questioning it, I really don't know if this is something it is skilled at Does the fact that it is quickly trending warmer bother me? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 GFS seems like it may be a hair SE with the mid level stuff through 00z saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I heard that same BS with the last system.....palliative care. Lucy I'm home?, exactly why we wait for 12Z today before sounding the whistles. I think NWS and local mets are doing a great job with this laying low until its time to pull a trigger for amounts good or bad. The rush to put numbers out there can bite ya in the arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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