Matthew Gross Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The low and the precip are clearly southwest of previous NAM runs, but I don't think it corrected itself temp wise anywhere near as much as it should have for that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 That warm layer is definitely a lot more tame this run....but it's still warmer than all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Yeah that was a pretty solid cave. I'm not so much concerned about the NAM's thermal profile as I am its placement of the mid-level features, which is now more in line with the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Close to mixing up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I don't really buy it bringing so much warmth at 850mb as far north as it does with that look. Epic QPF bomb though, holy sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Gross Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Over 2.5 inches of QPF in Boston on the NAM this run. If this somehow ends up cold there it's going to be a hell of an event in the western suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, DomNH said: I don't really buy it bringing so much warmth at 850mb as far north as it does with that look. idk...I'm always wary when the NAM is warmest with the mid levels when the primaries go into upstate NY. Yeah, it's great that the secondary lows reform as far south as they do, but we need to limit that WAA before the backing aloft begins. It's tough to figure out the NAM because it wins some of these battles and then other times it craps all over itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk...I'm always wary when the NAM is warmest with the mid levels when the primaries go into upstate NY. Yeah, it's great that the secondary lows reform as far south as they do, but we need to limit that WAA before the backing aloft begins. It's tough to figure out the NAM because it wins some of these battles and then other times it craps all over itself. I like to see RGEM agree with NAM leading up to event to give it more credence. Last event was a good example of the RGEM going almost lockstep with the NAM trending more amped every run from about 36h inward. If the RGEM stays divergent, then I'll probably chuck the NAM in the trash heap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk...I'm always wary when the NAM is warmest with the mid levels when the primaries go into upstate NY. Yeah, it's great that the secondary lows reform as far south as they do, but we need to limit that WAA before the backing aloft begins. It's tough to figure out the NAM because it wins some of these battles and then other times it craps all over itself. Since the upgrade, Who knows if its going to be better or not until this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Close to mixing up here too. aint happening James, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I like to see RGEM agree with NAM leading up to event to give it more credence. Last event was a good example of the RGEM going almost lock in step with the NAM trending more amped every run from about 36h inward. If the RGEM stays divergent, then I'll probably chuck the NAM in the trash heap. Yeah...I think that's the route to take with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk...I'm always wary when the NAM is warmest with the mid levels when the primaries go into upstate NY. Yeah, it's great that the secondary lows reform as far south as they do, but we need to limit that WAA before the backing aloft begins. It's tough to figure out the NAM because it wins some of these battles and then other times it craps all over itself. It's odd. Previous runs had a pretty significant warm layer at like 750-800mb but 850mb was fairly cold, now 850mb warm but 750-800mb are alright. I just don't really buy it. Still a lot colder than previous runs though as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I'm always mused by this sort of thing ... If you took the 06z 800 mb temp of ALB from hour 36, and maximized the surface potential in a stable mixed environment, ..that would supported a surface temp of about 81 F ...while it is sleet bombing down to 1/4 mile visibility on that NAM cycle. wow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 NAM gets sleet up here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Quite the torch on the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NAM gets sleet up here, lol. Yeah it's a really odd look. I think it's because it's handling the H7 low so strangely. Idk why it's so late to redevelop when you have a closed 500mb low and a closed 850mb low intensifying to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, DomNH said: It's odd. Previous runs had a pretty significant warm layer at like 750-800mb but 850mb was fairly cold, now 850mb warm but 750-800mb are alright. I just don't really buy it. Still a lot colder than previous runs though as a whole. it is remarkable how heavy that model brings the goods there... Jesus. Here is the FOUS grid for Logan, hour 54... 54110978858 10816 080431 46009900 That's 1.09" liq. equiv falling through what essentially amounts to an isothermal sounding at freezing ..if perhaps edged colder by decimals.. I'm not sure what is happening above the 800 mb level, but if THIS were the only indicator thermal fields? That's 11" of pure spring blue right there...And, scary part is, that's well less than half the entire event totals. I has well over an inch in sleet on the previous 48 -hour interval. It's definitely Jesus H Christ worthy stuff - I still maintain though ...that the system's total mechanics are no overwhelmingly strong enough to suggest these kind numbers; yet, the NAM isn't the only model being handsome in that regard. Though...this 12z cycle is the richest I have seen re this thing to date. I can't imagine 2" of sleet accumulations with 10" of cling on top ...that's a significant demographic impact if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12z RPM for Jerry...a bit colder than the 09z run, but still not the epic 00z run. Tons of sleet also (this algorithm correctly does not count sleet as snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Quite the torch on the 3km NAM. I like the western slope torch zones from the easterly flow in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I like to see RGEM agree with NAM leading up to event to give it more credence. Last event was a good example of the RGEM going almost lockstep with the NAM trending more amped every run from about 36h inward. If the RGEM stays divergent, then I'll probably chuck the NAM in the trash heap. Yea, thats my weenie guidance rule too. If you get those two in lock step vs globals, it is tough to rule them out. If rgem comes in colder now, you can wipe your morning dump with the nam printout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z RPM for Jerry...a bit colder than the 09z run, but still not the epic 00z run. Tons of sleet also (this algorithm correctly does not count sleet as snow). I think I recall the "greens" getting up to the Monads on previous runs you posted. Now a lot of S NH is under 10" with a big hit up into the mtns. I don't really see any reason to stray much from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Would like +0.4C at 850 even be enough to fully melt catpaws into sleet with such a thin layer, especially since it's so cold at 925? I could see some epic 5-6:1 slop if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Congrats Exeter NH per the 10:1 NAM from PW. ~28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 53 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah way sharper trough. I bet this run is going to cave with the midlevels developing near LI rather than ORH. I think we all look at the location of the 850 mb low and think it's bringing the goods. I really dislike the early vertical stacking of this. The mechanism of the stacking of the thickness lines never really gets going. It results in an a-typically large warm sector, and broadens the whole circulation. And that's not a good thing when it's passing right under you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, klw said: It also depends where you are going to in VT. Here is BTV's onset map BTV always has the best maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 53 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: Revised snow-out date for the backyard is now April 25th. Of course, the "most likely" map shows Maine getting about 1/3 that much, though the extreme SW does better. GYX' three numbers for Farmington: 0, 4", 11". I'd guess the zero is a lot more likely than the 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 RGEM looks like a mess at BOS. The low seemed further SW on the crude ptype graphics that come out earlier..but seemed a little warmer aloft. You would need to see what the mid levels look like to see if it's dynamics or more of a warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, tamarack said: Of course, the "most likely" map shows Maine getting about 1/3 that much, though the extreme SW does better. GYX' three numbers for Farmington: 0, 4", 11". I'd guess the zero is a lot more likely than the 11. Isn't the 0" the 10th percentile and 11" the 90th? So theoretically they're giving both a 10% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I bet these snow depth/total charts that are computed off the various models only employ the 850 mb to surface thermal depth ...and probably generically at that. I just saw a NAM 12z "clown" product with 24 to 27" pervasively from Orange Mass to almost Boston down the Rt 2 corridor...the whole way, but I got to thinking that was based upon the 850 to surface 0 C with thunderstorm fall rates and sure... there you go ..hehe. Buuut, an over shadowing warm layer that is above freezing would significantly skew those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z RPM for Jerry...a bit colder than the 09z run, but still not the epic 00z run. Tons of sleet also (this algorithm correctly does not count sleet as snow). Thanks Will! Don't like this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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