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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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2 minutes ago, Hitman said:

Please excuse this mby question but my in laws live just over the ct border in mass in the berks and father in law is in hospital in Springfield for knee replacement.  Supposed to be released tomorrow to be driven back to berks.   How are driving conditions looking tomorrow?

The earlier the better. Evening+ will be nasty.

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12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Man.  What an interesting forecast for us.  The Euro has been deadest on printing out 2-2.25" qpf.  Even at something as low as 5-1.  That's still 10-12" of pure cement.  Better go pick up a 30 rack and some candles.

At the risk of being accused of being a qpf queen, I believe it's stingier than that in GC.

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9 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

When would the highest impact be on travel if that is the case? Friday night?  

Hate to ask an IMBY question but my grandmothers funeral is at 10am in Bethel Ct.  driving there and back from Windsor locks between 8am and 1pm or so.  84?  Expecting nothing to be sticking at that point so roads OK.  Family is freaking out.

84 will be fine tomorrow morning 

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I'll be driving to VT from CT between about 3-5PM tomorrow, so I've been trying to figure out road conditions, too.  The BTV discussion indicates that they don't expect many road impacts in valley locations during the day, even up there.  ALY is a bit less certain, writing this:

It`s still unclear how easily the snow will stick on roadways due to the warmer ground temps and occurring during the daytime.
However, past late-season storms have shown that if snow falls hard it enough, it will stick anywhere.

My best guess is that highways won't be too bad in valley locations during the day south of about Brattleboro and possibly even north of there.  Once we make the left turn into the mountains, I expect it to be very snowy, but that's only for 15 miles or so.  When the sun starts to set, expect travel conditions to deteriorate everywhere.

Would love to hear others' thoughts. 

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Man, off topic but too bad this pattern was a month late. 

Yeah I was thinking about that in route to the office this morning. But ... I was betting that the QPF would way lower for a number eye-glazing reasons. 

This thing is way over achieving in the runs looking at the mechanics alone; gotta wonder if it benefits from seasonality. 

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11 minutes ago, sankaty said:

I'll be driving to VT from CT between about 3-5PM tomorrow, so I've been trying to figure out road conditions, too.  The BTV discussion indicates that they don't expect many road impacts in valley locations during the day, even up there.  ALY is a bit less certain, writing this:


It`s still unclear how easily the snow will stick on roadways due to the warmer ground temps and occurring during the daytime.
However, past late-season storms have shown that if snow falls hard it enough, it will stick anywhere.

My best guess is that highways won't be too bad in valley locations during the day south of about Brattleboro and possibly even north of there.  Once we make the left turn into the mountains, I expect it to be very snowy, but that's only for 15 miles or so.  When the sun starts to set, expect travel conditions to deteriorate everywhere.

Would love to hear others' thoughts. 

 

Remember, they said snow wouldn't accumulate on the warm ground for Rocktober.

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yeah... I know...  we're getting north of 1.5" liq. equiv. snows at 8:1 ratios out of lower to midland cyclogenic kinematics et al combined, and that looks dubious to me just on the surface...

However, these later March/spring et al events can end up with exaggerated totals over climo due to the changing physical parametrics feeding into them, too.  Too many tools pushing tin to ignore so... all else being equal, it probably comes down persistently moderate over a 20 hour span and there you go -

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11 minutes ago, sankaty said:

I'll be driving to VT from CT between about 3-5PM tomorrow, so I've been trying to figure out road conditions, too.  The BTV discussion indicates that they don't expect many road impacts in valley locations during the day, even up there.  ALY is a bit less certain, writing this:


It`s still unclear how easily the snow will stick on roadways due to the warmer ground temps and occurring during the daytime.
However, past late-season storms have shown that if snow falls hard it enough, it will stick anywhere.

My best guess is that highways won't be too bad in valley locations during the day south of about Brattleboro and possibly even north of there.  Once we make the left turn into the mountains, I expect it to be very snowy, but that's only for 15 miles or so.  When the sun starts to set, expect travel conditions to deteriorate everywhere.

Would love to hear others' thoughts. 

We are driving to Killington leaving Ct about 1pm.  I'm guessing north of Deerfield it could start to be slippery.  From exit 3 in VT north I think it could be quite slippery as there are some hills.  Unfortunately even a small layer of wet greasy snow is slick.  Dryer snow gives better traction.

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40 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Man.  What an interesting forecast for us.  The Euro has been deadest on printing out 2-2.25" qpf.  Even at something as low as 5-1.  That's still 10-12" of pure cement.  Better go pick up a 30 rack and some candles.

Yeah I don't know. Definitely need to amend my call to Pike north and not Tolland north now that I took a closer look...sorry Rev. 

I'll be pretty surprised if we pull out more than a foot from this, but if we have the midlevel lows developing underneath us and we're saturated to like 250mb then all bets are off I guess if we can avoid the taint. I just have a hard time buying 2''+ of QPF from this. 

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Just tell me ORH will be spared and that the drive to Wells, Maine will be fine on Saturday morning.

At this point in the season its just as sloppy mess with the potential to bring down power lines, etc.

And this is from an ardent winter/snow lover. (If I had my way the actual cold wintry weather would extend to the end of April and July would be like May, but if wishes were fishes)

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Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Just tell me ORH will be spared and that the drive to Wells, Maine will be fine on Saturday morning.

At this point in the season its just as sloppy mess with the potential to bring down power lines, etc.

And this is from an ardent winter/snow lover. (If I had my way the actual cold wintry weather would extend to the end of April and July would be like May, but if wishes were fishes)

You're not driving NE from ORH to Maine Saturday morning unless guidance fails....if you are, you better allow a lot of time.

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27 minutes ago, sankaty said:

I'll be driving to VT from CT between about 3-5PM tomorrow, so I've been trying to figure out road conditions, too.  The BTV discussion indicates that they don't expect many road impacts in valley locations during the day, even up there.  ALY is a bit less certain, writing this:


It`s still unclear how easily the snow will stick on roadways due to the warmer ground temps and occurring during the daytime.
However, past late-season storms have shown that if snow falls hard it enough, it will stick anywhere.

My best guess is that highways won't be too bad in valley locations during the day south of about Brattleboro and possibly even north of there.  Once we make the left turn into the mountains, I expect it to be very snowy, but that's only for 15 miles or so.  When the sun starts to set, expect travel conditions to deteriorate everywhere.

Would love to hear others' thoughts. 

It also depends where you are going to in VT.

Here is BTV's onset map

WinterPrecipOnset.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You're not driving NE from ORH to Maine Saturday morning unless guidance fails....if you are, you better allow a lot of time.

OK... so since I just came on board here after being astounded by weatherunderground forecast for 12+ here... 

Is it really gonna be THAT big of a deal?

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14 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

We are driving to Killington leaving Ct about 1pm.  I'm guessing north of Deerfield it could start to be slippery.  From exit 3 in VT north I think it could be quite slippery as there are some hills.  Unfortunately even a small layer of wet greasy snow is slick.  Dryer snow gives better traction.

Drive carefully!  Especially because we'll be behind you :).

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5 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Just tell me ORH will be spared and that the drive to Wells, Maine will be fine on Saturday morning.

At this point in the season its just as sloppy mess with the potential to bring down power lines, etc.

And this is from an ardent winter/snow lover. (If I had my way the actual cold wintry weather would extend to the end of April and July would be like May, but if wishes were fishes)

Huh? sloppy mess from orh to maine, lol. thats crush job central in that zone, be safe driving and remember to use your hazards.

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