Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Can anyone post the EPS map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It was also colder at 00z and 12z. Only the 06z panel was a smidge warmer. Looks like massive dynamic cooling though between 06z and 12z. What an interesting forecast. Look at when the qpf falls. The big stuff is later than previously. Almost more toward Saturday morning. Do you sleep? lol. I guess we've got all summer for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can anyone post the EPS map? It tickled a little further south with the southern extent of the snow but stayed put on the northern side... but its still mostly the same as its been for about 5 runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Weather Underground app spitting out 21" for me They seem to be hitting the GFS sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Toughest forecast is from about C CT to I-90. Could literally be 6-12+ or 2-4" then sleet/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was also colder at 00z and 12z. Only the 06z panel was a smidge warmer. Looks like massive dynamic cooling though between 06z and 12z. What an interesting forecast. Look at when the qpf falls. The big stuff is later than previously. Almost more toward Saturday morning. It's hair pulling. The RGEM seems a smidge cooler too at 850 if you compare hr 42 of 6z vs hr 48 at 00z. But, some of this could be noise from dynamics too. I did like seeing the GFS hold firm...if that means anything. It's definitely good to see it stay relatively cool below 850.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's hair pulling. The RGEM seems a smidge cooler too at 850 if you compare hr 42 of 6z vs hr 48 at 00z. But, some of this could be noise from dynamics too. I did like seeing the GFS hold firm...if that means anything. It's definitely good to see it stay relatively cool below 850.. Reggie def is colder south of 90 than it was. Hopefully we see these trends continue today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I like the usual 70/30 ec/gfs blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I like the usual 70/30 ec/gfs blend Usually works well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Looks like pretty much everything has held serve. I like a general 5-10'' right now from like Kevin north and west of 95. I bet some of the weenie areas near ORH and in the Monads see over a foot. This is happening. Sell the golf clubs for a genny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Looks like pretty much everything has held serve. I like a general 5-10'' right now from like Kevin north and west of 95. I bet some of the weenie areas near ORH and in the Monads see over a foot. This is happening. Sell the golf clubs for a genny. Man I hope you're right. I have a feeling it's a couple inches of snow here followed by a couple inches sleet here. Probably little rain ,mostly a sleet bomb. With 6-12+ 90 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Scooter mentioned Having mid level lows both go out south of LI has to be a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Boston TV mets pretty conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Boston TV mets pretty conservative Me personally, I would think about boosting totals up in NE MA and ORH on north. Tough call for BOS, but I do see some positives with this one..esp just away from water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Me personally, I would think about boosting totals up in NE MA and ORH on north. Tough call for BOS, but I do see some positives with this one..esp just away from water. Fisher is worried about the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Fisher is worried about the NAM Everyone is in love with it because of the last storm...but I still don't trust that model. Sure...keep it in mind, but it's not going to away me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Boston TV mets pretty conservative Smart. Much easier to adjust up than down. Once you put out big numbers, people will only remember that - nothing lower. TV mets don't have information that you don't, so who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 What is the approximate timing of the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone is in love with it because of the last storm...but I still don't trust that model. Sure...keep it in mind, but it's not going to away me right now. I'm surprised at how conservative the NWS is going as well... I'd think ALY and GYX would've gone slam dunk Warnings already for their SNH/SVT zones. It seems some storms you look at the forecasts and its widespread 12-18" and you are scratching your head and then there are ones like this where models are throwing some huge moisture out there and places are worried about going more than 7-12". I was surprised there wasn't more impact hit by the NWS in what has always looked like a high impact zone of RT 2 up into central VT/NH. I'm also surprised ALY has nothing in the Catskills...even if its not going to be snow that looks like 1"+ of QPF as sleet and freezing rain. Especially for those 2,000ft towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Dang, so close yet so far. I like the ct hills, wouldnt sweat model printout verbatim....guidance seems like they are starting to sniff out dynamic cooling as it ramps up the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Gross Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I'm amazed at how cold the GFS continues to insist this is going to be north of Providence and Hartford. I keep thinking this is going to swing warmer being an April setup, but if anything it's trending a tick colder. It's getting really interesting for places just north / west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Only a hazardous weather outlook in CT in the northwest part of the state. The other counties from yesterday were lifted. Not like that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 People may be a bit gunshy after the Mar 14 debacle, but I do wonder if the synoptics and trajectory (midlevel center moving across a more zonal flow vs. a sharper trough and system emerging off South Carolina like on Mar 14) make it less prone to convection shifting the guidance track more northwest in the last 48 hours. AFD seemed to lean warmer than Euro/GFS for Fri night - Sat, especially for north/northeast MA: Precip type will be quite varied but trending through sleet and freezing rain to rain through the period. Even southern areas could see some sleet at times Friday night. But those southern areas should change to rain, while northern areas start as snow and change to sleet/freezing rain Friday night...then to rain Saturday. Still a tough forecast for Boston... I think 2-4" total from WAA + CCB is safe at this point, with the understanding that it might be broken by rain in the middle on Friday, and room to escalate today if models hold today. Euro/GFS blend has been stable if not improving all yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: People may be a bit gunshy after the Mar 14 debacle, but I do wonder if the synoptics and trajectory (midlevel center moving across a more zonal flow vs. a sharper trough and system emerging off South Carolina like on Mar 14) make it less prone to convection shifting the guidance track more northwest in the last 48 hours. AFD seemed to lean warmer than Euro/GFS for Fri night - Sat, especially for north/northeast MA: Precip type will be quite varied but trending through sleet and freezing rain to rain through the period. Even southern areas could see some sleet at times Friday night. But those southern areas should change to rain, while northern areas start as snow and change to sleet/freezing rain Friday night...then to rain Saturday. Still a tough forecast for Boston... I think 2-4" total from WAA + CCB is safe at this point, with the understanding that it might be broken by rain in the middle on Friday, and room to escalate today if models hold today. Euro/GFS blend has been stable if not improving all yesterday. yea, either the cold trends is an over correction, which we have seen a lot this winter, or it is in fact the trend as we get close. I do like the more zonal track of the upper levels, agree, and the south of LI drift east compared to two weeks ago. Sucks cuz if we had THAT airmass now, sweet christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm surprised at how conservative the NWS is going as well... I'd think ALY and GYX would've gone slam dunk Warnings already for their SNH/SVT zones. It seems some storms you look at the forecasts and its widespread 12-18" and you are scratching your head and then there are ones like this where models are throwing some huge moisture out there and places are worried about going more than 7-12". I was surprised there wasn't more impact hit by the NWS in what has always looked like a high impact zone of RT 2 up into central VT/NH. I'm also surprised ALY has nothing in the Catskills...even if its not going to be snow that looks like 1"+ of QPF as sleet and freezing rain. Especially for those 2,000ft towns. 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: People may be a bit gunshy after the Mar 14 debacle, but I do wonder if the synoptics and trajectory (midlevel center moving across a more zonal flow vs. a sharper trough and system emerging off South Carolina like on Mar 14) make it less prone to convection shifting the guidance track more northwest in the last 48 hours. AFD seemed to lean warmer than Euro/GFS for Fri night - Sat, especially for north/northeast MA: Precip type will be quite varied but trending through sleet and freezing rain to rain through the period. Even southern areas could see some sleet at times Friday night. But those southern areas should change to rain, while northern areas start as snow and change to sleet/freezing rain Friday night...then to rain Saturday. Still a tough forecast for Boston... I think 2-4" total from WAA + CCB is safe at this point, with the understanding that it might be broken by rain in the middle on Friday, and room to escalate today if models hold today. Euro/GFS blend has been stable if not improving all yesterday. I might be totally wrong, but I think you can at least go and hint at higher amounts for NE MA and ORH on north. The euro was not sleet and ZR in those areas. The NAM was, and maybe that is swaying the opinion..but I can't find myself weighing it too much. I still have a live by the NAM, die by the NAM mentality. If all the models come in warm at 12z, and I'll tip my cap and call the NAM my daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm surprised at how conservative the NWS is going as well... I'd think ALY and GYX would've gone slam dunk Warnings already for their SNH/SVT zones. It seems some storms you look at the forecasts and its widespread 12-18" and you are scratching your head and then there are ones like this where models are throwing some huge moisture out there and places are worried about going more than 7-12". I was surprised there wasn't more impact hit by the NWS in what has always looked like a high impact zone of RT 2 up into central VT/NH. I'm also surprised ALY has nothing in the Catskills...even if its not going to be snow that looks like 1"+ of QPF as sleet and freezing rain. Especially for those 2,000ft towns. Agreed all of Warren county has been over a foot on the Euro for the past 5 runs it's been very consistent, I think Gore does very well here only concern is mid level warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The RPM is pretty toasty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Still easier forecast for BOS than it is pike to C CT. BOS likely all snow..Ct to pike could be all snow, all sleet or a combo of both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Even tho the setup is not the same, the NAM insistence on warmth reminds me of the fire hose 3/8/13 where local forecasts busted badly due this being way too warm. The NAM had no snow in MA. most of us ended up with 18+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 49 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Boston TV mets pretty conservative It's a good idea. But I've raised my chances of big snows from Boston to the north coast based on the significantly improved surface hp positioning on guidance. It went from a fleeting high to an anchored high. That's a big improvement for eastern areas with marginal BL temps. Now my concern has transitioned to what I outlined above. The 0z EPS at hr 48 looks like it could take the surface low north of LI based on that depiction. And the fact that it's closed off at 500 has me concerned the NAM may be onto something, seeing the best pressure falls under the deepest convection further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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