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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Fair enough. But to clarify i never thought all of NE MA would be out of the game--all day my concerned areas have been pretty much in-line with the wsw areas (or lack thereof) already issued by the nws. I do, however think this is a non-event for Boston metro.

Disagree.

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Best GFS run yet today... Colder, ticked southeast vs. 18z GFS, but with heavier rates... that run would bring warning to most of MA outside of southeast

Soundings for KBOS remain below freezing above 1000 or 975mb the entire event

All guidance at 00z (including the clown range RGEM and RPM) sans the NAM is giving Boston pretty major snowfall.

I think it definitely needs to be considered a little more seriously...obviously it is good remain quite cautious until maybe 24h out, but I no longer think it is like a 1 in 5 shot type deal.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That right there is the classic signature of a spring snow event manifesting itself in the snowfall algorithm output....that little appendage of heavier snows from ORH into ne MA.

Check out May 1977...

Classic.

The more dynamic look on this as we get closer has me definitely more optimistic for something pretty good...the slight colder/south tick so far at 00z is really solidifying your location. Always good to have a little wiggle room.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All guidance at 00z (including the clown range RGEM and RPM) sans the NAM is giving Boston pretty major snowfall.

I think it definitely needs to be considered a little more seriously...obviously it is good remain quite cautious until maybe 24h out, but I no longer think it is like a 1 in 5 shot type deal.

I'd say more like a 2/3 in 5 deal. I'd put the over/under at 6" downtown.

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Yeah maybe I'm wrong, but the synoptics and trajectory of this system have me a little less wary than the March 14 storm from the perspective of guidance shifts in the last 48 hours...

We had better antecedent cold then, but that track emerging from the south was more susceptible to intense convection shifting the track northwest in the last 48 hours, and indeed guidance went from BM to elbow to PYM track or thereabouts... the mesos did better in that setup

This time the flow is more zonal with a bowling ball of a mid-level low just rolling across... the main risk this time is influence of northern stream tugging that zonal track north, but trends today have been reassuring.

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Definitely going to want to keep an eye on this being really tucked in and  a late north trend--over LI or even a bit north of there. The mesos likely have an upper hand here...Upper level jet dynamics are virtually non-existent and we have an early cut-off low at 500, so I have concern that the best surface pressure falls will be collocated with the deepest convection rather than where they should be based on the longwave depiction, further southeast.

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Definitely going to want to keep an eye on this being really tucked in and  a late north trend--over LI or even a bit north of there. The mesos likely have an upper hand here...Upper level jet dynamics are virtually non-existent and we have an early cut-off low at 500, so I have concern that the best surface pressure falls will be collocated with the deepest convection rather than where they should be based on the longwave depiction, further southeast.

boooooo!!  Actually, a wet solution wouldn't be bad for my personal plan for Saturday which is driving my daughter to Anime Boston.  Get excited. (?).

 

30.0

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op was a hair warmer at 850 between 6z and 12z but a tad cooler at 925. Man what a tough call. I'm not s fan of that 850 warmth though. At least in SNE. It's tucking the low near KFOK.

It was also colder at 00z and 12z. Only the 06z panel was a smidge warmer. Looks like massive dynamic cooling though between 06z and 12z. What an interesting forecast. 

 

Look at when the qpf falls. The big stuff is later than previously. Almost more toward Saturday morning. 

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