Son of April Fool's Birch Bender

[powderfreak]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I could see this being 8-10" for MPM and Hubbie and 4-6" for Greenfield with identical qpf.  Either way, should be fun. 

Power outtages with that QPF and a 32-33F snow.

[powderfreak]

The Euro Ensembles have been pretty darn steady, except has ticked slightly colder along the mix line each run (like 10-15 miles at a time). 

But overall its like 4 straight runs of the EPS with a similar outcome of a significant wet/dense snowfall for CNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

FIRST CALL:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/03/little-bit-of-history-repeating.html

 

FINAL CALL tmw night-

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Euro Ensembles have been pretty darn steady, except has ticked slightly colder along the mix line each run (like 10-15 miles at a time). 

But overall its like 4 straight runs of the EPS with a similar outcome of a significant wet/dense snowfall for CNE.

Been pretty rock steady for several runs now, Hard to bet against i think, Other guidance slowly moving towards it.

[ORH_wxman]

The EPS have def ticked colder down in SNE. They were probably about 1-2C warmer two runs ago. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks, Will...nice catch.

I'm going a bit more conservative to start than I did with the last event, since it ticked a bit more west than I had planned on, which verified me on the higher end of the totals.

Euro is not flawless, and you never stop learning lessons.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, Will...nice catch.

I'm going a bit more conservative to start than I did with the last event, since it ticked a bit more west than I had planned on, which verified me on the higher end of the totals.

Euro is not flawless, and you never stop learning lessons.

I'm trying to understand your post??

 

if in the last event, you went higher to start, but ended up on the higher end of the totals..then your call was a good one in the last event right???  Even if it went more west in the end..it still benefited you...Right?? 

 

So how is that related to this one?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I'm trying to understand your post??

 

if in the last event, you went higher to start, but ended up on the higher end of the totals..then your call was a good one in the last event???  Even if it went more west in the end..it still benefited you...Right?? 

 

So how is that related to this one?  

The low end of my ranges verified, so I'm going to start more conservatively in this event since small corrections north would have large implications.

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The Euro Ensembles have been pretty darn steady, except has ticked slightly colder along the mix line each run (like 10-15 miles at a time). 

But overall its like 4 straight runs of the EPS with a similar outcome of a significant wet/dense snowfall for CNE.

verbatim that would net 6-10 for BTV. 

[jbenedet]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, Will...nice catch.

I'm going a bit more conservative to start than I did with the last event, since it ticked a bit more west than I had planned on, which verified me on the higher end of the totals.

Euro is not flawless, and you never stop learning lessons.

Not following the "low" SST logic. Whether the ocean is 35, 40 or even 50 matters little in the grand scheme. I lived on LI most of my life and have seen fantastic mid level and low level temps spoiled by 40F Atlantic waters because of a modest surface wind direction off the ocean. All that matters is it's going to raise your td well above freezing, and evaporative cooling will lose its effectiveness. You're really relying on mixing of the mid levels down to the surface to overwhelm the 10-20 kt fetch off the Atlantic. I don't even think it will be a battle in and around Boston. This should be interesting nonetheless...

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The low end of my ranges verified, so I'm going to start more conservatively in this event since small corrections north would have large implications.

Oh ok..the lower end of the range verified.  Makes more sense now.  In the post you said the higher end of your totals verified..that's what threw me off.  Thanks for clarifying! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not following the "low" SST logic. Whether the ocean is 35, 40 or even 50 matters little in the grand scheme. I lived on LI most of my life and have seen fantastic mid level and low level temps spoiled by 40F Atlantic waters because of a modest surface wind direction off the ocean. All that matters is it's going to raise your td well above freezing, and evaporative cooling will lose its effectiveness. You're really relying on mixing of the mid levels down to the surface to overwhelm the 10-20 kt fetch off the Atlantic. I don't even think it will be a battle in and around Boston. This should be interesting nonetheless...

Sorry dude, 40* ssts are more manageable than 50*....haven't a clue what you are trying to argue-

The more marginal the boundary layer, the easier it is for the mid levels to offset it given sufficiently heavy fall rates.....especially at night.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry dude, 40* ssts are more manageable than 50*....haven't a clue what you are trying to argue-

Uh. I said that? Lol--but sst isn't the main issue. Let's see what happens to that evaporative "cooling" when your RH spikes to 100%.

[MarkO]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not following the "low" SST logic. Whether the ocean is 35, 40 or even 50 matters little in the grand scheme. I lived on LI most of my life and have seen fantastic mid level and low level temps spoiled by 40F Atlantic waters because of a modest surface wind direction off the ocean. All that matters is it's going to raise your td well above freezing, and evaporative cooling will lose its effectiveness. You're really relying on mixing of the mid levels down to the surface to overwhelm the 10-20 kt fetch off the Atlantic. I don't even think it will be a battle in and around Boston. This should be interesting nonetheless...

Agreed, that is if you're saying it's going to be rain. I don't think southeast of 95 gets much more than an inch or two. 

[weathafella]

Yeah on that logic we'd never get snow in December.  In 2003 BOS screamed east winds for hours. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm pretty sure 35 degree SSTs would greatly benefit the coastal areas vs 40 or 50. There's a reason the Cape averages more snow later in the Winter...lower SSTs

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The EPS have def ticked colder down in SNE. They were probably about 1-2C warmer two runs ago. 

 

Where you going to be for this?  I would think Winter Hill gets the nod?

[TalcottWx]

Just took a look at models after seeing Ray's FB post, I don't like this one. Enjoy ORH rt 2 northern ma and NNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Uh. I said that? Lol--but sst isn't the main issue. Let's see what happens to that evaporative "cooling" when your RH spikes to 100%.

You just said earlier that there are going to be east winds off of the ocean...what the hell did you mean?

You're not entirely grasping the message that I'm trying desperately to convey.

Its not merely evaporative cooling....with -3 to -4C at H925 and heavy fall rates, a marginal BL will be compensated for when that is advocated down.

[jbenedet]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You just said earlier that there are going to be east winds off of the ocean...what the hell did you mean?

You're not entirely grasping the message that I'm trying desperately to convey.

Its not merely evaporative cooling....with -3 to -4C at H925 and heavy fall rates, a marginal BL will be compensated for when that is advocated down.

I understand this. I specifically mentioned mixing from the mid levels...

[40/70 Benchmark]

If rates do not verify as heavy, and/or this ticks north....different ballgame.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I understand this. I specifically mentioned mixing from the mid levels...

Ok, then....I don't know what to tell you.

We will see what happens.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ok, then....I don't know what to tell you.

We will see what happens.

My point was you don't have both thermodynamic processes to help cool; you're relying on one. And that one will be fighting the surface wind. 

I agree, we'll see. Should be interesting...

[ORH_wxman]

If mid-level temps are cold enough for snow, NE MA off the immediate water will get croaked. It's really not that close in my opinion. They aren't going to be 34f and non-accumulating snow unless the precip is light. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I have to say....the euro op concerns me more regarding that 850ish later down to 925 or so vs low level temps. Winds will gradually back to NE, but warming aloft occurs. If I knew it would be solidly below freezing in those layers, I would feel better. I know the waters in 2015 were a bit colder, but I remember when we had the 3/28 surprise snow here...pretty sure SSTs helped me with the wind off the coder water vs inland by TAN where they warmed. That cold wind helping to offset insolation was impressive. Not saying we have the same here, but I'm not that concerned with the lower 1000ft like I am with sneaky warm 850 temps.

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Uh. I said that? Lol--but sst isn't the main issue. Let's see what happens to that evaporative "cooling" when your RH spikes to 100%.

It wouldn't be evaporative cooling. It would be latent cooling. RH can be 100% all day and his temp will tick down and down as the snowflakes melt into the thin warm layer near ground until the temp stabilizes around 31-32F with heavy snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If mid-level temps are cold enough for snow, NE MA off the immediate water will get croaked. It's really not that close in my opinion. They aren't going to be 34f and non-accumulating snow unless the precip is light. 

 

This is where an extensive knowledge of the intricacies of local climo help immensely....being from Long Island, maybe he isn't privy to that.

Not trying to insult him, either....nothing to do with skill.

[jbenedet]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It wouldn't be evaporative cooling. It would be latent cooling. RH can be 100% all day and his temp will tick down and down as the snowflakes melt into the thin warm layer near ground until the temp stabilizes around 31-32F with heavy snow. 

Yea. I have no problem seeing that. Just wonder how that measures up against the warm layer persistently being "replenished" by that easterly maritime wind. I'm obviously skeptical the thermodynamic processes can win in this case. If the winds backed sooner or the wind was lighter i wouldn't be pushing it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It wouldn't be evaporative cooling. It would be latent cooling. RH can be 100% all day and his temp will tick down and down as the snowflakes melt into the thin warm layer near ground until the temp stabilizes around 31-32F with heavy snow. 

Thank you.

 

I lack the grasp of the physical processes that you have, so I couldn't articulate that as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. I have no problem seeing that. Just wonder how that measures up against warm layer persistently being "replenished" by that easterly wind. 

Having witnessed a great deal of spring events over the past 35 years or so here, I can tell you that its all about the mid levels in this area...and with those H925 temps....pretty damn close to the froth of the waves.