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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I could see you getting 3 of slop but Congrats MPM HUNCHIE PETE DENDRITE PF JEFFAFAF and all the rest of the guys and gals North of the Pike. however  I am not convinced that this doesn't end up a low ratio storm between route poop and I 90 at low elevations. WAWA and Weenie hill will probably do well. I wouldn't lock anything up in Rays hood either. Like I said before I could see this ending up warmer.

Fair enough.. but I still don't think we are done trending south . Probably why Dryslot stopped posting 

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hear is a neat trick.

Take the elevator to the top of the Prudential Center with a thermometer in hand, and let me know what it reads on Friday night.....that is if visibility is great enough to read it.

#h925tempsmatter

 

925mb isn't that low, is it?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hmmm. GFS ticked colder again

A lot of guidance has actually ticked colder today while precip has gotten more robust. Better mid level centers help. 

But not sure how much further south it will cool. 

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I could see you getting 3 of slop but Congrats MPM HUNCHIE PETE DENDRITE PF JEFFAFAF and all the rest of the guys and gals North of the Pike. however  I am not convinced that this doesn't end up a low ratio storm between route poop and I 90 at low elevations. WAWA and Weenie hill will probably do well. I wouldn't lock anything up in Rays hood either. Like I said before I could see this ending up warmer.

Well yeah, it's almost April with an "ok" high placement and possible ticks N still very much on the table.  This could still be white rain to the MA/VT border although I doubt that happens.  My expectations are very much in check.  If I had another 800' of elevation I would be more confident.  I'll go all in this time tomorrow if it still looks like warning snows here. 

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fair enough.. but I still don't think we are done trending south . Probably why Dryslot stopped posting 

Work and dinner....lol, I'm not placing many of my eggs in the GFS basket, Although it did start to get somewhat of a clue @18z, But still the model that's the furthest south, GFS fell on its face up here the last big event, Euro owned it and its probably going to again,  But you always say to toss it its garbage,  But i understand, It shows the most for your BY, Good luck.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well yeah, it's almost April with an "ok" high placement and possible ticks N still very much on the table.  This could still be white rain to the MA/VT border although I doubt that happens.  My expectations are very much in check.  If I had another 800' of elevation I would be more confident.  I'll go all in this time tomorrow if it still looks like warning snows here. 

I think you're golden...especially once the coastal low takes over and nighttime rolls around.

Friday afternoon might be interesting... the low levels below 1,000ft are pretty warm so I wonder if some start off as rain or rain/snow mix.  Or even wet-bulb processes bring snow down to start, then it goes to rain, before heavy snow takes over in the evening.

Hard to say if the models are under-estimating the low level warmth on Friday afternoon...it is the time of year for temps to get 35-45F but -3C at 925mb should keep it under 40F with clouds and virga moving in.

 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think you're golden...especially once the coastal low takes over and nighttime rolls around.

Friday afternoon might be interesting... the low levels below 1,000ft are pretty warm so I wonder if some start off as rain or rain/snow mix.  Or even wet-bulb processes bring snow down to start, then it goes to rain, before heavy snow takes over in the evening.

Hard to say if the models are under-estimating the low level warmth on Friday afternoon...it is the time of year for temps to get 35-45F but -3C at 925mb should keep it under 40F with clouds and virga moving in.

 

I could see this being 8-10" for MPM and Hubbie and 4-6" for Greenfield with identical qpf.  Either way, should be fun. 

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