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Severe weather risk 3-28 and 3-29 2017


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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
456 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
TXC253-441-282215-  
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170328T2215Z/  
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-  
456 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...  
      
AT 454 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HAWLEY, OR 10  
MILES WEST OF ABILENE, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 450 PM TRAINED   
         SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES WEST OF DYESS AFB.  
           

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
456 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
TXC253-441-282215-  
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170328T2215Z/  
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-  
456 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...  
      
AT 454 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HAWLEY, OR 10  
MILES WEST OF ABILENE, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 450 PM TRAINED   
         SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES WEST OF DYESS AFB.  
           

Think they messed up the warning, because Hawley is actually northwest of Abilene.

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Those look more like WAA associated showers than anything else imo.

true - but you often see that as a precursor to more intense convective development. Seems WF development is a slower process as parcels steadily make their way to LFC via isentropic ascent... development not nearly as explosive as dry line dev, considerably more gradual 

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1 minute ago, bjc0303 said:

true - but you often see that as a precursor to more intense convective development. Seems WF development is a slower process as parcels steadily make their way to LFC via isentropic ascent... development not nearly as explosive as dry line dev, considerably more gradual 

Agreed. Atmosphere is fairly conducive in southern OK at the moment. HRRR now has more semi-discrete cells across portions of southern/central OK rather than a line from 00z-04z

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13 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

true - but you often see that as a precursor to more intense convective development. Seems WF development is a slower process as parcels steadily make their way to LFC via isentropic ascent... development not nearly as explosive as dry line dev, considerably more gradual 

right on cue - more aggressive convective development underway 

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
537 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
TXC253-417-282245-  
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170328T2245Z/  
JONES TX-SHACKELFORD TX-  
537 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR EASTERN  
JONES AND NORTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES...  
      
AT 536 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE STAMFORD   
MARINA, OR 10 MILES EAST OF STAMFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. AT   
535 PM TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF FUNSTON.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  

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Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Parts of nwrn Texas and adjacent southwestern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...

Valid 282231Z - 290000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for potentially damaging surface gusts appears
likely to increase in association with an evolving mesoscale
convective system by 7-9 pm CDT.  Tornado potential will probably
maximize in this time frame as well, mainly in the isolated discrete
supercells.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development appears to be in the
process of consolidation/growing upscale between Childress and
Abilene, aided by forcing for ascent associated with modest
low/mid-level warm advection beneath difluent/divergent upper flow. 
Additional discrete storm development continues to the south and
east of this activity, near and southwest of Abilene, in the
presence of a moist, weakly capped boundary layer that appears
characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg.

Low-level hodographs still appear somewhat modest in size, but are
expected to substantively enlarge between now and 00-02Z, with
southerly 850 mb flow forecast to strengthen in excess of 50 kt.  As
this occurs, and the evolving convective system and nearby
supercells tend to develop north/northeastward, the risk for strong
surface gusts is expected to increase across parts of northwest
texas into southwestern Oklahoma.

Despite some weakness in the high-level flow/length of deep layer
hodographs, the environment still appears conducive to the risk for
tornadoes.  This probably will remain most prominent with the
discrete supercells, and the threat may maximize in the 00-02Z time
frame, within areas near/between Wichita Falls and Mineral Wells Tx.

..Kerr.. 03/28/2017

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
541 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
  
* AT 540 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AVOCA, OR 7  
  MILES SOUTH OF STAMFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

small cells developing NNW of FTW along red river.....if anything becomes of these they should be moving due north and into the OKC metro later

With this being the environment their working with per HRRR along the border..

Screen Shot 2017-03-28 at 5.43.17 PM.png

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
547 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0543 PM     TORNADO          1 S FUNSTON             32.74N  99.80W  
03/28/2017                   JONES              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER   
  
            CONE WITH HORIZONTAL VORTEX AND DEBRIS   

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XC207-253-282315-  
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170328T2315Z/  
HASKELL TX-JONES TX-  
551 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN  
HASKELL AND NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES...  
      
AT 549 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STAMFORD, MOVING  
NORTH AT 35 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
601 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
TXC087-483-282330-  
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170328T2330Z/  
WHEELER TX-COLLINGSWORTH TX-  
601 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR SOUTH  
CENTRAL WHEELER AND CENTRAL COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES...  
      
AT 601 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
WELLINGTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
608 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT  
      
* AT 607 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER STAMFORD, MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!   
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  

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