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dryslot

NNE Spring Thread

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Below I’ve got the latest thoughts from the BTV NWS on the potential system at the end of the week – as of the overnight update they were thinking that the potential exists for several inches above the 2,500’ level.  In his morning WDEV broadcast, Roger Hill went with a general 4-8” or 5-10” ballpark, but he didn’t really speak to elevation so he may have been thinking colder than the NWS based on the latest guidance.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

406 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...By Friday into Friday night, deeper moisture will ride northeast into our area on increasing warm thermal advection and a fairly robust southwesterly 850 mb jet as low pressure tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley. Thus will continue the idea of widespread precipitation arriving southwest to northeast over time into Friday evening as highs top out from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Depending on arrival time, some of the morning precipitation may fall in the form of wet snow across the southwestern half of the forecast area before a transition to all rain below 1500 feet by late morning/early afternoon. Any accumulations should be minor to negligible. Higher up, precipitation may fall as a mix of rain/snow or even all snow for elevations above 2500 feet given wet bulbing processes and 850 mb temperatures hovering around the 0C mark give or take a degree or two. Several inches of wet snow will be possible in these higher elevation areas, especially by Friday night as thermal profiles cool slightly and snow levels lower accordingly. A mix with wet snow may even occur to the Champlain/St. Lawrence Valley floors for a brief while Friday night, but little if any accumulation is expected.

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33.6F   Really pretty this morning with ice covered trees.   Ice line is right at 1100 feet.  High part of my property has ice covered trees the lower part is ice free.    Very sharp line.  Unfortunately cloud ceiling is at the same elevation so no great pictures, everything fogged in.

20170328_085829_resized.jpg

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Looks like spring cancel for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it flips like a rubber band. I like my above normal temps in May and June. If we're going to be cool in the warm season we may as well save the warm season cP airmasses for July and August.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And there's no spring in sight that way.  Not the way we think of it, as short sleeve days with sun heating Crocus choots, tulips and drunk bumblebees to life.

 

You know it’s funny, it wasn’t until I read Tip’s post that I realized that the types of images described above aren’t actually the sort of pictures that come into my head when someone says “spring”.  My image has snow (corn snow) on the ground, and insects aren’t even in the picture.  Short sleeves are also not involved, I see long sleeves and maybe a vest.  When I picture the short sleeves I see myself shivering (which I know I’ve done on many occasions when it’s not quite time for short sleeves).  The image I see of spring is cool, like fall, but the fall image has that sparse early snow, often in the higher elevations, and the spring one has the old snowpack-style spring snow.  What’s described above is essentially summer to me, aside from the specific types of flowers and their emergence.

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4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

You know it’s funny, it wasn’t until I read Tip’s post that I realized that the types of images described above aren’t actually the sort of pictures that come into my head when someone says “spring”.  My image has snow (corn snow) on the ground, and insects aren’t even in the picture.  Short sleeves are also not involved, I see long sleeves and maybe a vest.  When I picture the short sleeves I see myself shivering (which I know I’ve done on many occasions when it’s not quite time for short sleeves).  The image I see of spring is cool, like fall, but the fall image has that sparse early snow, often in the higher elevations, and the spring one has the old snowpack-style spring snow.  What’s described above is essentially summer to me, aside from the specific types of flowers and their emergence.

Actually, today is an example of the type of day I associate with spring.  Melting snow, warmish temps, water flowing everywhere.  

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looks like spring cancel for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it flips like a rubber band. I like my above normal temps in May and June. If we're going to be cool in the warm season we may as well save the warm season cP airmasses for July and August.

A repeat of last April-May would be nice, even though April had cold spells at both ends of the month.  However, sun was more abundant than typical for NNE mid-spring, and we had none of the multi-day cutoff horrors nor loads of clammy BD fronts that spring in this area often features.

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2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

You know it’s funny, it wasn’t until I read Tip’s post that I realized that the types of images described above aren’t actually the sort of pictures that come into my head when someone says “spring”.  My image has snow (corn snow) on the ground, and insects aren’t even in the picture.  Short sleeves are also not involved, I see long sleeves and maybe a vest.  When I picture the short sleeves I see myself shivering (which I know I’ve done on many occasions when it’s not quite time for short sleeves).  The image I see of spring is cool, like fall, but the fall image has that sparse early snow, often in the higher elevations, and the spring one has the old snowpack-style spring snow.  What’s described above is essentially summer to me, aside from the specific types of flowers and their emergence.

The image I see of spring is the rotting grey snow of march. I hate spring.  Yes, there are a handful of really good ski days and sometimes some really fun powder ski days. But by and large I find spring filled with grey wet brown days here in the CPV.  At least till late April. 

I don't know what to call May in BTV but whatever that is, that is what I like. It sure ain't spring though. 

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The image I see of spring is the rotting grey snow of march. I hate spring.  Yes, there are a handful of really good ski days and sometimes some really fun powder ski days. But by and large I find spring filled with grey wet brown days here in the CPV.  At least till late April. 

I don't know what to call May in BTV but whatever that is, that is what I like. It sure ain't spring though. 



It is the worst time of year for sure until the leaves come out.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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26 minutes ago, adk said:

The image I see of spring is the rotting grey snow of march. I hate spring.  Yes, there are a handful of really good ski days and sometimes some really fun powder ski days. But by and large I find spring filled with grey wet brown days here in the CPV.  At least till late April. 

I don't know what to call May in BTV but whatever that is, that is what I like. It sure ain't spring though. 

Weather wise, spring is the only season I miss growing up in the Mid Atl.  Cooler summers and much snowier winters in VT are a trade off I will take every day, all day, in exchange for missing for Cherry Blossoms and Dogwood Tree Flowers in April/ Early May.

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Man,  I kind of feel sick right now.

 I was watching the weather channel this afternoon as tornado chaser Kelley Williamson and passenger Randall Yarnall were broadcasting live as they were chasing a storm near Spur Texas.  About 10 seconds after they finished talking live to TWC  they went through a stop sign and hit another chaser and all 3 lost their lives. Their Utube video of the end is up on Utube. Watching the reply I realize I heard just about their last words.... Really heartbreaking for the community and feels very strange that I watched the last seconds of their life. Last words were....man this is a rain wrapped sun of a gun.....then they hit...

 It goes to show how fleeing life can be.  R.I.P.

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7 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Man,  I kind of feel sick right now.

 I was watching the weather channel this afternoon as tornado chaser Kelley Williamson and passenger Randall Yarnall were broadcasting live as they were chasing a storm near Spur Texas.  About 10 seconds after they finished talking live to TWC  they went through a stop sign and hit another chaser and all 3 lost their lives. Their Utube video of the end is up on Utube. Watching the reply I realize I heard just about their last words.... Really heartbreaking for the community and feels very strange that I watched the last seconds of their life. Last words were....man this is a rain wrapped sun of a gun.....then they hit...

 It goes to show how fleeing life can be.  R.I.P.

That's sad. 

I've always worried about crashes like that. Everybody is watching the tornado and nobody is watching the road. 

 

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17 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks like spring cancel for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it flips like a rubber band. I like my above normal temps in May and June. If we're going to be cool in the warm season we may as well save the warm season cP airmasses for July and August.

Agreed on the temps.

Ive actually been thinking that the longer we hold the chilly pattern the more likely it may just flip at some point and go straight to 60s or something.

That would be ideal and above normal in May is absolutely beautiful usually.  

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Based on their forecast discussion (see below), the BTV NWS isn’t confident enough to say too much about the potential Friday/Saturday system at this point, but they do feel that the potential will exist for a light to moderate wet snow accumulation in many areas.  Roger Hill said he’s going with general accumulations in the 6 to 12-inch range at this point.

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 341 AM EDT Wednesday...Most active period of weather then affects the region by late Thursday night and especially Friday into Friday night as upper closed energy tracks east from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. The forecast remains quite complex in regard to precipitation timing, amounts and type with lower boundary layer thermal profiles playing a critical role through the period. This is not uncommon with early spring systems with subtle changes of 1 to 2 degrees either way potentially leading to large differences in sensible weather. For now will maintain our prior idea of snows arriving into our southwestern counties later Thursday night into mid morning on Friday before a transition to all rain in lower elevations, or rain/snow mix from 1000-2500 feet on Friday as precipitation shield advances into the remainder of the forecast area. At higher elevations above 2500 feet p-type may remain as all snow. Negligible amounts of sleet or freezing rain is expected. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 20s with afternoon highs on Friday from 35 to 40 below 1500 feet and 30 to 35 above that level.

 

Bulk of precipitation then affects the area Friday night as warm thermal advection aloft will be peaking and as thermal profiles cool slightly a transition to all snow is expected after midnight. Amounts may be a bit tricky as flow trends southeasterly and some slight shadowing effects may occur. Time will tell. I was also cautious in leaning too high on our QPF given known model high bias during warm thermal advective events. Nonetheless the potential will exist for a light to moderate wet snow accumulation in many areas with higher amounts possible in elevated southern terrain. Did lean on the milder side of guidance given clouds and lack of appreciable low level advection - mainly lower to mid 30s (upper 20s at elevation). Please see our winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific accumulation forecasts and probabilities.

 

By Saturday widespread light snows taper to scattered rain/snow shower activity as system exits the Mid Atlantic coast and gradually loses influence. Any additional snow accumulations will be minor as late day temperatures top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

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We may see a inch at most here but it could be a good paste bomb for the higher terrain for sure. I only wish the overnight Euro run would verify.

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35 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We may see a inch at most here but it could be a good paste bomb for the higher terrain for sure.

Not sure if there will be enough QPF north of 89 to get more than 3-4" above 2500 feet. Killington will likely do the best as more moisture down their way

 

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17 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Weather wise, spring is the only season I miss growing up in the Mid Atl.  Cooler summers and much snowier winters in VT are a trade off I will take every day, all day, in exchange for missing for Cherry Blossoms and Dogwood Tree Flowers in April/ Early May.

The NNJ home where I grew up was at the north end of the aptly-named Dogwood Trail.  Hope the anthracnose disease that's been hammering that species hasn't ruined NJ's state flower.

Going by the GYX maps this morning, Fri-Sat looks like a Monadnock mangler.  Foothills get a fringe, if anything.  Still time for change.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

The NNJ home where I grew up was at the north end of the aptly-named Dogwood Trail.  Hope the anthracnose disease that's been hammering that species hasn't ruined NJ's state flower.

Going by the GYX maps this morning, Fri-Sat looks like a Monadnock mangler.  Foothills get a fringe, if anything.  Still time for change.

Not to go off on a tree tangent, but I had 2 Nice Dogwoods on my property in PA, they seemed pretty healthy, didn't see any signs of anthracnose.

I did have a 250-300 yr old Sycamore that had a wicked case of Anthracnose the 5 years I lived there, it would constantly drop leaves from May right through until full leaf drop in NOV, complete nightmare keeping the yard clean since it was right in the front yard.  That thing was a majestic beast though, I think its actually on the PA Big trees website as one of the biggest sycamores in the state.

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Big fatties falling at the mountain with a dusting on any light surfaces.  No accums on roads or dark cars haha.  It's that time of year.

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice snow showers all afternoon rolling through.

March_29_snow_zps5xzehs9z.gif

Afternoon-snow-showers-dusting-the-mount

 

Those red gondolas look so classy in the snow.  What a great pic.

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Well, we’re getting into the range of advisories and projected accumulations maps for the Friday/Saturday event, so I’ve added what the BTV NWS has below.  There’s currently a Winter Storm Watch out for various areas in the southern part of the state.  The BTV NWS outlines their general thoughts on accumulations in various parts of the state below:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

426 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday... The bulk of the precip arrives from noon on Friday through the overnight hours on Saturday. During this time we should see a burst of heavy wet snow with some western slope enhancement. In the watch area expect 6-10 over the 24 hour time period, and a gradient as we move further north. Storm Total snows vary from south to north but the general idea is that along the international border we can expect 2-4 inches. Across central Vermont and the Adirondacks we can expect 4-7 for the duration of the event and again expect 6-10 across Southern VT. I leaned towards some of the colder guidance for hourly temps mainly due to the idea that by Friday afternoon we will be wet-bulbing down and seeing temps likely a few degrees cooler than our normal diurnal process. Please see our winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific accumulation forecasts and probabilities.

 

29MAR17A.jpg

29MAR17B.jpg

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