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NNE Spring Thread


dryslot

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33.8F Light sleet.   What a mix for the past 6 hours.  From moderate snow, sleet, drizzle and rain.  Flipped back so many times.  Temperature all day 33.8 to 34.4F. Bit of slush and a small coating on the snow cover.  

Will we cool of a degree or so upstairs and at the surface to change back to a bit of snow this evening.

Doesn't really matter.  Pond is coming up.  Full mark by Friday??

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10 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

First grass patches appearing and the deer are loving it.  One of their favorite games is "chase around the pond"  

https://video.nest.com/clip/d538f8c4eb0e43568e37e3456fdc24f5.mp4

that was pretty funny. I liked how the 2 deer take off running, and that one deer in the foreground is just standing there like WTF are you guys doing.

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

A quick 2" of wet snow late last evening.  32.6F during the event.   Really beautiful this AM.  Looking down at the lake it looks like it was too warm to stick to the trees.  Haven't been off the hill yet...

20170405_064120.jpg

That's a fantastic picture. That's one of the best winter shots I've ever seen. You need to submit that somewhere for money or a book or something. 

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Event totals: 0.2” Snow/1.11” L.E.

 

19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm so confused... was raining but is now sleeting here at home in town.  I can't figure out how it got colder in the low levels to refreeze the rain drops?

Its like 37F.

I didn’t get to see what was going on in Waterbury until I headed home from work, but indeed it was a sleet/rain mix in town and at the house.  Sleet was mixed in all evening, but it only transiently accumulated at less than 0.1” because of the temperatures.  Later in the evening though as the temperatures cooled a couple of degrees, the sleet finally started to accumulate.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches (Sleet)

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 4.0

Snow Density: 25.0% H2O

Temperature: 35.4 F

Sky: Sleet/Rain

Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

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Well, the BTV NWS forecast discussion isn’t really addressing it much at this point, but the next opportunity for snow appears to be tomorrow night into Saturday.  Roger Hill has been highlighting the potential for accumulations to the valley bottoms for a couple of days now, and the snow is there on every model to some degree, so obviously even more potential is there at elevation.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Well, the BTV NWS forecast discussion isn’t really addressing it much at this point, but the next opportunity for snow appears to be tomorrow night into Saturday.  Roger Hill has been highlighting the potential for accumulations to the valley bottoms for a couple of days now, and the snow is there on every model to some degree, so obviously even more potential is there at elevation.

Big upslope sig on the NAM RGEM, don't be surprised PF

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Big upslope sig on the NAM RGEM, don't be surprised PF

 

I suspect the BTV NWS is probably focused more on the Flood Watch at this point, so that may be why discussion of tomorrow night into Saturday is fairly brief:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

748 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 453 AM EDT Thursday...Rain will continue to linger across the region Friday and Friday night, as the surface low is captured by a closed upper low that will be over the region through Saturday. Dynamical cooling aloft on Friday associated with the closed upper low will lead to some snow developing over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains Friday night into Saturday. Some light snow accumulation is possible over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains Friday night into Saturday.

 

We’ll see if they add a bit more detail for the afternoon update.  I haven’t really gone through the various upslope parameters, but we know how things can go when there’s an area of low pressure sitting there around Northern Maine like the models are showing.  The high elevation Mansfield point forecast does sum to 4-8” from Friday through Saturday at this point.

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This is a terrible cold rain and freezing rain right now.

Its pouring at the resort with 27F at the summit (heavy freezing rain) and our base area temps on the fan guns are showing 31.8F-32.3F depending on the gun.  

Drops are huge...but this is like Day 3 of freezing rain on the upper mountain. 

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430pm  Thursday.   Almost .50" so far.  Looks like a break and then the next heavy round this evening.  34-35F all day.  I don't know why in my mind I thought this would be a much warmer storm, 40-45F?  Not far from a freezing rain storm.  My road is holding up pretty good.  Muddy but not deep mud.  Maybe the ground is still frozen below the top few inches?  I don't know....

Pond still rising.  About 3 more feet to go before the level gets to the outflow culvert.  90% snowcover remains.  Slow melt at these temperatures...  

Shut down the wood stove after over 4 months of running it.  About 5  1/2 cords.  Turned on the oil heat today.  What a difference.  Hot, cold, hot.  The stove gives a much more even heat but I was so tired of ashes and lugging in wood.  

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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

6-12 seems likely very cold mids, good DGZ

EURO was on board and more robust at 12z than the 00z run.

This panel is likely all snow above 2,500ft and lowering to 1,500ft towards the end.

ecmwf_pr6_slp_T_neng_7_zps3juq9wvz.png

Then 8pm-2am tomorrow evening...this is a solid signal for the mountains.

ecmwf_pr6_slp_T_neng_8_zpsinbzngfz.png

Tapering off Saturday morning.

ecmwf_pr6_slp_T_neng_9_zpsa8cwql7a.png

 

I know Ginxy has been on board but I'm getting a bit more interested in some half-foot amounts for the resorts, especially north of I-89.

Snapshot of 24-hour precip when it should be snow in the mountains.

ecmwf_precip_24_neng_10_zpsiok1r8x9.png

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The latest thoughts on the upcoming snow potential from the BTV NWS forecast discussion are below.  They’re currently going with less than an inch in the broad valleys, 1-3” from 500’ to 2,000’, 2-4” above 2,000’ and potentially more at the summits.  The high elevation Mansfield point forecast is still in that general 4-8” range as it was yesterday.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

448 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 448 AM EDT Friday...As colder air moves in, rain showers will change to snow showers, starting at high elevations of the Adirondacks and lowering throughout the evening. By midnight, expect most areas of northern NY and VT to see snow or snow mixing with rain. Even the broad valleys will see at least a mix of rain and snow by Saturday morning. Lows Friday night/Saturday morning generally near 32F.

 

As the low continues to pull away Saturday, areal coverage of showers will diminish, focusing around the terrain and adjacent western slopes. Temperatures should warm up enough for all but summits to see precip change back to rain briefly before tapering off. Max temperatures will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Snowfall amounts of generally a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch in the broad valleys. Between 500-2000ft, expect 1-3 inches of snowfall. Above 2000ft, generally expect 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts at the summits.

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