Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

La Niña Winter of 2017-18


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 168
  • Created
  • Last Reply

1962-63 had so much blocking the south had above average snowfall along with the very cold temperatures...2000-01 had periods of strong blocking too...the enso for both years were near la nina's...both of those years had a cold Fall leading into the winter...this year is different but the qbo is the same...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

the QBO is on the same level as 1962 and 2000...both years remained at that level throughout the winter...62-63 was a very cold winter and 2000-01 was snowy...

Yup. We are closely aligned with 2000 right now. In terms of QBO progression. I think anything below -20 will be bad for blocking. Basically there will be tons of suppression and very little room for amplification.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/5/2017 at 2:05 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Yup. We are closely aligned with 2000 right now. In terms of QBO progression. I think anything below -20 will be bad for blocking. Basically there will be tons of suppression and very little room for amplification.

I'm seeing people talk about major bookend winters as analogs like 1959-60, 1992-93, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2012-13.  - EPO too.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I'm seeing people talk about major bookend winters as analogs like 1959-60, 1992-93, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2012-13.  - EPO too.

 

Not sure why 00-01 is being used as an analog. Yes it was part of a multi year La Niña and had a -QBO but it had +PDO and the tropical convective forcing resembled an El Niño. The PDO was becoming positive at this time in 2000 and by January it went positive and gained strength through the winter 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

On 11/11/2017 at 11:23 AM, snowman19 said:

Not sure why 00-01 is being used as an analog. Yes it was part of a multi year La Niña and had a -QBO but it had +PDO and the tropical convective forcing resembled an El Niño. The PDO was becoming positive at this time in 2000 and by January it went positive and gained strength through the winter 

I would take 2008 2009 in a heartbeat. Snow cover from mid December through mid March. 133% of average snowfall, albeit from mostly ice changeover events save the March 1 storm. Sw coastal ct. How close was that set up to this year?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

I would take 2008 2009 in a heartbeat. Snow cover from mid December through mid March. 133% of average snowfall, albeit from mostly ice changeover events save the March 1 storm. Sw coastal ct. How close was that set up to this year?

I’m not a fan of 08-09 as an analog, 05-06 is a good match to the global pattern IMO. 00-01 had El Niño like tropical forcing and was a strengthening +PDO going into and through that winter, which are the 2 main reasons why I don’t like it, as I mentioned earlier

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not a fan of 08-09 as an analog, 05-06 is a good match to the global pattern IMO. 00-01 had El Niño like tropical forcing and was a strengthening +PDO going into and through that winter, which are the 2 main reasons why I don’t like it, as I mentioned earlier

Agree....2005-2006 is my number one analog, but I think it will be a bit colder than that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not a fan of 08-09 as an analog, 05-06 is a good match to the global pattern IMO. 00-01 had El Niño like tropical forcing and was a strengthening +PDO going into and through that winter, which are the 2 main reasons why I don’t like it, as I mentioned earlier

 

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree....2005-2006 is my number one analog, but I think it will be a bit colder than that.

2005-06 fits my bookend winter analog list.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, nzucker said:

The Nina was more west-based in 05-06, and there was also a much more classic -PDO with the cold Gulf of Alaska and warmer waters towards the Aleutians.

We are continuing with a PDO drop. As classic a -PDO as 2005? No, not yet. But we are on the way. Here is the 7 day change: cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...