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La Niña Winter of 2017-18


dmillz25

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  • Replies 168
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  • 3 weeks later...
31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like the biggest Nino 1+2 temperature drop during a coastal El Nino event near Peru from March to April since 1950. Be interesting to see what model forecasts look like in the coming months once these cooler conditions get initialized. The Pacific has been doing some very unusual stuff in recent years relative what has been our past experience.

 


 15MAR2017     2.6    
 22MAR2017     2.2     
 29MAR2017     1.8     
 05APR2017     0.9    
 12APR2017     0.5     

 

 

 

 

Not sure we're going to get much of an El Nino with a robust -PDO pattern ruling the NPAC. Gulf of AK has become extremely cold.

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While technically the PDO is still weakly positive, the record storm activity going into California cooled the northern half of the PDO region. The warmest SST departures are now over the southern half of the PDO zone. Plenty of conflicting signals right now with the unusual rapid increase and decrease in Nino 1+2 SST's over the last month at the tail end of a La Nina. The SOI has become more negative in recent days while we still haven't seen a strong WWB pattern emerge yet. That WWB pattern would be what is needed to see El Nino conditions develop further west back to Nino 3.4. So model forecasts right now may be even more uncertain than the typical spring forecast barrier. The Pacific has been working off a different playbook in recent years.

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

pdo.png.06302dbde2572e4f1f5f34ab93baf31a.png

Regardless of the daily PDO numbers (which seem to count warm anomalies near the SoCal coast more than cold SSTs farther north), the overall signature seems to be developing into more of a cold PAC/cold GoA/-PDO regime...cold water near AK/PAC coast, warmer SSTs near Kamchatka/Japan. I think the dailies will continue to drop as the warmth near SoCal continues to recede as it has since strong +ENSO/+PDO conditions prevailed in 2016.

I still believe the current NPAC configuration is hostile towards the development of a robust El Nino. I believe that, if WWB/Kelvin Wave activity does procede, we are likely to see a weak, west-based/Modoki Nino. This would make Winter 17-18 likely to be the best for the East since at least 14-15. 

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using the mei scale the developing el nino years lean cool for the Summer since the 1920's...since the 1990's they lean towards warm...2002 was very hot while 2009 was cool...I'm leaning towards the warm side as of now...I want to see if this el nino develops as forecast...

 

 

develop el nino summers since 1990.png

mei developing el nino summer.png

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On 4/18/2017 at 9:20 AM, uncle W said:

using the mei scale the developing el nino years lean cool for the Summer since the 1920's...since the 1990's they lean towards warm...2002 was very hot while 2009 was cool...I'm leaning towards the warm side as of now...I want to see if this el nino develops as forecast...

 

 

develop el nino summers since 1990.png

mei developing el nino summer.png

I would lean warm too.  Another very warm el nino summer besides 2002 was 1994.  Do you think average or below average tropical activity, Unc?

 

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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see now that the CFS has initialized the rapid drop in Nino 1+2 SST's, it's backing off the El Nino forecast. Notice the new blue ensemble members not showing much El Nino development at all. If we don't start to see some stronger WWB's the next few months, then we may just continue in a warm neutral mode without much impact on the upcoming hurricane season. 

 

nino12Mon.thumb.gif.e5c1a012e3c1b423fe7d899fda42c975.gif

 

nino34Mon.thumb.gif.4ed2882555f03338d5d69310c982e5ef.gif

Could it be another late developing el nino like 2002 that still keeps the summer pretty hot?

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Have no idea of details like that in the current spring forecast barrier period. You can probably flip a coin on the two scenarios below.

 

1) Models are incorrectly initializing the residual super El Nino warmth from 15-16 as the start of a new El Nino for 17-18

2) Models are correctly predicting yet an another historic first. The fastest return of El Nino following a super El Nino since the late 1800's. While the sample size is small, the 1877-1878..1982-1983..1997-1998...super El Ninos were followed by at least 2 year La Ninas. Same goes for 72-73 if you consider that one super.

I was looking at the top 14 mei years and the only one that saw a la nina one year and another el nino the next are the winters of 1902-03...1903-04...1904-05...most of the years were the first year el nino or two or three or more la nina-neutral followed...

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If we do get an El Nino, whether it is a big one, or a small one, should behave pretty differently from 2014-15 and 2015-16. The nine "low solar" El Ninos since 1930, have US cold focused over the US south of 37N, but the 18 "high solar" El Ninos since 1930 have US cold focused on the East Coast.

In Albuquerque, 6/9 "low solar" El Ninos see a DJF mean high of <=47.5F, which is at least 2F below the 85-year mean (1931-32 to 2015-16), compared to only 1/18 "high solar" El Ninos. It's the closest thing out here to a guarantee of a cold winter. Our last two low solar, El Nino winters are both kind of legendary for cold and snow: 2006-07, and 2009-10.

Table Below is for Albuquerque mean highs DJF, ENSO / Solar filtered.

Winter (DJF) Highs <=47.5F <=48.5 <=49.5 >=49.5 >=50.5 >=51.5
Low Solar El 66.7% 77.8% 77.8% 22.2% 22.2% 11.1%
Low Solar N 20.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 30.0% 20.0%
Low Solar La 21.4% 28.6% 42.9% 57.1% 50.0% 50.0%
             
High Solar El 5.6% 27.8% 33.3% 66.7% 27.8% 5.6%
High Solar N 13.6% 36.4% 63.6% 40.9% 27.3% 22.7%
High Solar La 7.7% 15.4% 23.1% 76.9% 53.8% 38.5%
             
P<=0.05? El Nino 0.00062 0.0139 0.0296 0.0296 no no
P<=0.05? Neutral no no no no no no
P<=0.05? La Nina no no no no no

no

My take on it has always been that El Nino effectively prevents "warm" winters here, but the low-solar loads the dice towards actual cold winters.

El Nino by Solar Activity.png

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On 5/4/2017 at 10:16 AM, bluewave said:

Could see some continued ENSO cooling this month with a big trade wind surge showing up on the EPS while the +PDO continues.

 

C-_JLOKU0AAEKwG.jpg-small.jpg.51dfb97924f8e152e3bca91ea3764ebb.jpg

 

nino34_anom.png.af75d5910de7a93448a8abf00c59e252.png

pdo.png.05de36c6c141ab6ecab4359bc19b8c7a.png

 

 

This looks more and more like a neutral/La Nada coming up by the day. The atmospheric indicators are not even close to getting into El Niño mode and the SST and subsurface temps, thermocline are not indicative at all of an upcoming El Niño event. All the models have been consistently backing off on the El Niño idea

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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If we can hold onto this pseudo warm neutral modoki look going into next winter, then it has a shot at being cooler here than the last 2. But ENSO forecasts can change at the drop of a hat this time of year so stay tuned. Be interesting to see if we can avoid 3 winters in a row near 40 degrees.

 

nino4Mon.thumb.gif.5d46a62901111c6655830add8a9623e8.gif

nino34Mon.thumb.gif.2717dc611643ae8b71095e4ecd0bc680.gif

 

 

neutral winters after la nina usually are bad...56-57, 85-86, 89-90, 96-97, 01-02, 08-09, 12-13...1989-90 was the only neutral year on the plus side...all the others were neutral negative...2012-13 would be the best enso analog if this becomes a failed el nino...

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  • 2 weeks later...

the mei is at +1.455..This is higher than the 2002-03 nino at its peak...The JMA is +7 which is in weak el nino territory...The mei is already a moderate el nino...the oni and jma are catching up...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

oni was +0.4 for the last tri monthly number...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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On 6/20/2017 at 10:13 AM, uncle W said:

neutral winters after la nina usually are bad...56-57, 85-86, 89-90, 96-97, 01-02, 08-09, 12-13...1989-90 was the only neutral year on the plus side...all the others were neutral negative...2012-13 would be the best enso analog if this becomes a failed el nino...

Assuming a neutral/La Nada ENSO, making it a non factor, then things like solar cycle, QBO, MJO waves, PDO, although the argument can be made that the pattern drives the PDO state and NOT the other way around (PDO driving the pattern), and to a lesser extent the AMO (more of a driving force in summer than it is in winter), become all the more important. We have seen so many epic fails the last several years of the whole fall snowcover and icecover portending the winter theory, that I don't even consider them anymore; at least not until their relationship to the winter is much better understood. This may prove to be a very difficult winter to predict

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming a neutral/La Nada ENSO, making it a non factor, then things like solar cycle, QBO, MJO waves, PDO, although the argument can be made that the pattern drives the PDO state and NOT the other way around (PDO driving the pattern), and to a lesser extent the AMO (more of a driving force in summer than it is in winter), become all the more important. We have seen so many epic fails the last several years of the whole fall snowcover and icecover portending the winter theory, that I don't even consider them anymore; at least not until their relationship to the winter is much better understood. This may prove to be a very difficult winter to predict

After reading this forum the past few years the one thing that is certain is your winter call will be warm and not much snow. 

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if an el nino develops starting with the JJA tri mointhly period it would be like the years below...The June oni should come in at least +0.5...If you believe the CFSV2 it's forecasting near -0.2 for the DJF period with members all over the place...1993 looked like an el nino was developing but it faded to a plus neutral for the winter...1961 to a lesser extent and that was a neutral minus winter...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

year.....JJA oni.....DJF oni...

2009.......+0.5.......+1.3...

2004.......+0.5.......+0.7

1963.......+0.7.......+1.0...down from +1.2...

1951......+0.5.......+0.5...down from +0.9...

el nino's that started with the MJJ period...

1965.....+0.7.......+1.3...down from +1.7

1991.....+0.6.......+1.6

2002.....+0.6.......+0.9...down from +1.2

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm feeling more confident now that we do not see an El Niño this winter. None of the ENSO indicators are lining up for an El Niño, even a weak one. The trend in the models has not only been to back off on an El Niño for the past couple of months, but also to cool things down in region 3.4. A La Nada looks extremely likely at this point. Whether it's a "cool-neutral" or a "warm-neutral" remains to be seen, that should become clearer as we head into early fall. 

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1 hour ago, bkviking said:

3.4 going down with trades... 

 

IMG_5693.PNG

The models have been showing the cooling in region 3.4 for awhile now. The downturn with the enhanced trades is not a surprise. I'm starting to think neutral-negative for this winter. We should have a better idea come early fall, but my money is on neutral-negative right now. 

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