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2017 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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Mack wouldn't hold my breath. Looking at long range does show some potential for tropical/sub tropical development in the next 2 weeks. I think from central FL north will be hard to get some significant rains. If anything meaningful. Watching model runs its clear the dry spell has kicked in from central FL north into the south and southeast. Any development will be be along the baroclinic zone. Which should remain off the SE coast S FL into the southern GOM.

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The models going to fluctuate. But the 3 main players to watch is how quick the SE ridge breaks down. The 500mb trough developing digging into the SE. Third wether or not a secondary LP forms in the central GOM. The goofus has been showing that. If the third happens of course the trough that is currently drapped across central FL into GOM would indicate a strenghting ridge opposed to weakening. But as in the old old days. I say go with the EE(Nam)/Euro rule. Both showing a turn early east of Mobile. Atm I'd say from Pensacola to the Big Bend near Cross City fair game.

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Accelerating rapidly, don't think we will see excessive rainfall, 1-3" maybe! Models have overdone precip quite a lot this year from 4-5 days out.

LOL...yep considering I haven't had any precip in weeks.  This appears to miss my our area well to our west but should get a large area a couple of inches of rain at least.

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They've called it a 'cane...

Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly.  Dvorak
estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much
higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind
estimates.  Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but
since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the
convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so
it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.
In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it
should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
higher than normal.
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4 hours ago, Solak said:

They've called it a 'cane...


Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly.  Dvorak
estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much
higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind
estimates.  Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but
since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the
convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so
it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.
In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it
should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
higher than normal.

She looking good now....at least a 85 mph cane which is the highest they take her too....latest ADT closer to 100 mph

         UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  12 OCT 2017    Time :   004500 UTC
      Lat :   29:56:42 N     Lon :   35:52:50 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                4.7     5.1     5.1

oph.gif.7eafcb91ae881e7c0003d4f2d7f21016.gif

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Something I learned today..........

 

"

There
is significantly more spread in Ophelia's track by day 5, with the
GFS moving Ophelia over the North Sea while the ECMWF and UKMET
turn the cyclone eastward over Norway.  However, NHC's graphical
product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime
Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4."
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4 hours ago, Solak said:

Something I learned today..........

 

"


There
is significantly more spread in Ophelia's track by day 5, with the
GFS moving Ophelia over the North Sea while the ECMWF and UKMET
turn the cyclone eastward over Norway.  However, NHC's graphical
product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime
Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4."

So there are no mets at NHC that can make a forecast? I'm beginning to think we might as well fire all the mets and spend their freed up salary on better computer programmers for the models.  Obviously, I don't believe that but it's a damn bad look to basically say, "Sorry, the computers don't cover that area so we have no clue, but GOOD LUCK!!".

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Forecast from Irish version of NWS.....I chuckled at thundery rain.....they are calling for gust to 80 mph for coastal areas though....

Monday: On Monday stormy conditions are expected to develop especially in southern and western areas. Current indications suggest that Ex Hurricane Ophelia will track northwards close to the west coast of Ireland, bringing storm force winds, heavy possibly thundery rain and very high Seas during Monday and Monday night to southern and western coastal counties especially. Some flooding is likely due to heavy rainfall and very high seas. 
The storm will move away to the north later Monday night. 

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Forecast from Irish version of NWS.....I chuckled at thundery rain.....they are calling for gust to 80 mph for coastal areas though....

Monday: On Monday stormy conditions are expected to develop especially in southern and western areas. Current indications suggest that Ex Hurricane Ophelia will track northwards close to the west coast of Ireland, bringing storm force winds, heavy possibly thundery rain and very high Seas during Monday and Monday night to southern and western coastal counties especially. Some flooding is likely due to heavy rainfall and very high seas. 
The storm will move away to the north later Monday night. 

She was just upgraded to a Cat 3.

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