downeastnc Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Ukie still showing a Florida landfall for Jose ? No it hasnt had that for a few days now......has it go over Hatteras then into NJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 6Z GFS has 2 tropical systems making landfall in the SE in the next 2 weeks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 6Z GFS has 2 tropical systems making landfall in the SE in the next 2 weeks lol With the depicted pattern (eastern ridge) it's keeping the door wide open for any storm that moves towards the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 IMO what will become Lee will be OTS and Maria will be the one that has the best shot to come knocking. The afterlife of Jose is the only shot at creating a weakness out in the Atlantic and catching what should be named Maria and saving east coast trouble in 7-10 days. Outside of that looking at H5 setup steering appears to be one with a street that deadends on the east coast, Hispanola would be our only opportunity to avoid trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12Z GFS... Solid NC hit with a cat 3 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Next frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, NCSNOW said: IMO what will become Lee will be OTS and Maria will be the one that has the best shot to come knocking. The afterlife of Jose is the only shot at creating a weakness out in the Atlantic and catching what should be named Maria and saving east coast trouble in 7-10 days. Outside of that looking at H5 setup steering appears to be one with a street that deadends on the east coast, Hispanola would be our only opportunity to avoid trouble. GFS running a crazy track on the 12Z run has a 933 cane hitting the Carolinas from almost due west.....after it blocks a OTS track well offshore to boot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: GFS running a crazy track on the 12Z run has a 933 cane hitting the Carolinas from due west..... Its more WNW and storm number 2 is in the Gulf of Mexico right after.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Its more WNW and storm number 2 is in the Gulf of Mexico right after.. Yeah that track is pretty unlikely but that angle of approach and landfall location is pretty much worse case scenario for my backyard.....brings the center just SW of me and keeps this area in the N then NE then E/SE core...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 32 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah that track is pretty unlikely but that angle of approach and landfall location is pretty much worse case scenario for my backyard.....brings the center just SW of me and keeps this area in the N then NE then E/SE core...... That would be a horrible track for the Crystal Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 Lee? 9/26 - today's 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Good grief...GEFS and EPS mostly agree on day 8+ potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 5 hours ago, packbacker said: Good grief...GEFS and EPS mostly agree on day 8+ potential. GFS ad CMC both have the system either impacting or getting ready to impact northern florida Georgia or southern SC area again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Posted in other forum, but man that pattern on the models across the board is ripe for a SE US landfall system to my untrained eye. Behind Jose the models show a nice HP/ridge forming in response to the -PNA it looks like. Definitely eye brow raising tonight when we have the GFS/CMC/EURO all show a major TS hitting the SE Coast Day 9-11. Do you guys know if this system would be Lee or Maria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 50 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Posted in other forum, but man that pattern on the models across the board is ripe for a SE US landfall system to my untrained eye. Behind Jose the models show a nice HP/ridge forming in response to the -PNA it looks like. Definitely eye brow raising tonight when we have the GFS/CMC/EURO all show a major TS hitting the SE Coast Day 9-11. Do you guys know if this system would be Lee or Maria? Depends on if TD14 gets named first or not. 9-11 days is an eternity in the modeling world and so many things can change. The one thing to take away is that the signal is there for a cane to be in the SW Atlantic in a threatening position and that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 All the models have a cane just off the SE coast at 00Z with the GFS hitting GA, the 06Z GFS hits the Carolinas close to Charleston. The chances of a storm threatening the SE is pretty real now, stuff like exact track wont be hashed out till its a 2-4 days out which is still 10 days out....there is however uncanny agreement between the CMC/Euro/GFS in the 7 day range of a storm in or just east of the Bahamas they are all within a 100 miles of each other...thats a problem for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 Antigua Met Service @anumetservice 19m19 minutes ago What are the models saying about the path of #disturbanceAL96? The path puts many islands in potential danger - #AntiguaAndBarbuda included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 Antigua Met Service @anumetservice 14m14 minutes ago Most models have disturbanceAL96 as a #storm in 12 hrs and a #hurricane in 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Solak said: Antigua Met Service @anumetservice 14m14 minutes ago Most models have disturbanceAL96 as a #storm in 12 hrs and a #hurricane in 60 hrs Off to the races putting a hurricane in the same general position of Irma. I guess we are going to wait and see if this one follows climo more closely than Irma. A safe bet is usually the coastal scraper or the landfall in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 5m5 minutes ago NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 41 minutes ago, Solak said: NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 5m5 minutes ago NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles. Why they dont just go with TD15 is silly to me....hell they could probably call it Lee, or Maria.....the HWRF takes it right over Guadeloupe as a strong hurricane then looks on track to hit Puerto Rico...HMON hit Dominica as a strong hurricane it will be good for them to miss the north islands but at the same time this will just add to the misery....heck best case would be for it to hit Barbuda no one is there and the buildings are all wrecked anyways but this will be well south of there apparently. Going to be another long 10 days of tracking what is likely to be yet another stong hurricane landfall on the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 TS Lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, Solak said: Ouch. Those islands can handle pretty much up to cat 3 or 4 pretty easily. Still really terrible to see some of the islands decimated by cat 5 Irma are still going to possibly deal with hurricane force winds again so soon after. I'm sure there are tons of loose objects that will turn into missles if that track verifies. Not worst case stuff but certainly not a good outlook. And i I agree with downeast. This thing may very well hit the US. She's coming in at a low latitude I bet Don S could post some stats about % chance at us LF based on current position. I bet you the odds are over 50/50 atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Current GFS track is nasty for Puerto Rico keeps the center just off or right on the south coast and then stays just barely on or right along the NE coast of Hispaniola which wont help it any but it avoids the high mts in the middle of the island...quite a bit of agreement in the globals overall that Puerto Rico is going to have major impact from this storm....followed by the Bahamas....then somewhere in the SE unless it can miss wide right.... Edit: the 12Z GFS run today would be brutal for NC coast as it crawls ashore it goes 180 miles in 30 or so hrs and is within 60 miles of the coast for 18-20 hrs....thats brutal even if its only a Cat 1 the surge up the rivers of eastern NC would rival Irene...that run puts MBY in the center.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 Interesting stat via a Weather Channel met... Jonathan ErdmanVerified account @wxjerdman Only 3 times before have 2 #hurricanes tracked w/in 75 mi. of the Virgin Isl. in the same season: 1999, 1916, 1852. Never 2 Cat 3+. #Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Solak said: Interesting stat via a Weather Channel met... Jonathan ErdmanVerified account @wxjerdman Only 3 times before have 2 #hurricanes tracked w/in 75 mi. of the Virgin Isl. in the same season: 1999, 1916, 1852. Never 2 Cat 3+. #Maria I've visited Philipsburg St. maarten and Road Town, Tortola. Both islands twice, they were both so beautiful. Hard to accept that if and when I go back they won't look the same for a very long time. Especially Tortola BVI looks to have just been trashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 9:19 AM, Solak said: Interesting stat via a Weather Channel met... Jonathan ErdmanVerified account @wxjerdman Only 3 times before have 2 #hurricanes tracked w/in 75 mi. of the Virgin Isl. in the same season: 1999, 1916, 1852. Never 2 Cat 3+. #Maria You can make up stats like that all the time. Pick any arbitrary set of conditions and they'll probably occur only rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, WidreMann said: You can make up stats like that all the time. Pick any arbitrary set of conditions and they'll probably occur only rarely. Yeah, only once in the last 5+ years, have I received a pure snow, with no taint! Probably about same in Rain_Coldville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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