SteveVa Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 We got TD 6 just off the coast of Tampa. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 520 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 1. Updated: Radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with the small area of low pressure located about 75 miles west of Tampa, Florida, have continued to become better organized, and a tropical depression has formed. Advisories will be initiated on this system as Tropical Depression Six within the next hour. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Yeah CMC gets a win, it was the most aggressive with this...... it looks to be drifting SE at the moment....radar returns are pretty impressive not sure it has a lot of time or room to do much but we have seen systems close to shore get pretty damn strong quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Now TS Emily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 17m17 minutes ago A tropical wave over west Africa has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by early next week. Full outlook: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 It seems that the tropical wave from the post above means business. Both GFS and Euro have something developing. GFS is, of course, more bullish. Interestingly, both models also see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche mid-late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 12 hours ago, SteveVa said: It seems that the tropical wave from the post above means business. Both GFS and Euro have something developing. GFS is, of course, more bullish. Interestingly, both models also see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche mid-late next week. CMC is onboard now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 I see the NHC now gives it a 70% chance of developing by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Lots of fish storms in the making! With all these strong troughs in the east, gonna be hard to score any far west penetration into the gulf. May could get a deep southern slider that ends up in S Tx or Mexico! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Another run, another scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 9 hours ago, SN_Lover said: Another run, another scenario... That would be a fun day on Ocracoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, jburns said: That would be a fun day on Ocracoke. Might even knock their power out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 4, 2017 Author Share Posted August 4, 2017 Still there on the 06z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 During bigger impact storms/events, Winter or other seasons, has there ever been thought to sub-forums within the S.E. States section? Or is that taken on thread by thread basis... Back in DC area and especially during snow events, there was so much variability - people commenting from the mountains, to the city, to the eastern shore. Way, way different conditions separated by 40-50 miles or a couple hundred feet elevation. Even completely opposite P-type. Lots of people wanted a way to converse with folks near there backyard, etc. This S.E. section seems like could have even wilder differences, stretching from NC to Florida. LOL. Thanks for the thoughts/comments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CARDC79 said: During bigger impact storms/events, Winter or other seasons, has there ever been thought to sub-forums within the S.E. States section? Or is that taken on thread by thread basis... Back in DC area and especially during snow events, there was so much variability - people commenting from the mountains, to the city, to the eastern shore. Way, way different conditions separated by 40-50 miles or a couple hundred feet elevation. Even completely opposite P-type. Lots of people wanted a way to converse with folks near there backyard, etc. This S.E. section seems like could have even wilder differences, stretching from NC to Florida. LOL. Thanks for the thoughts/comments! I don't really see a need. The NC people take over when something is going there and the rest of us show up the other times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 OBX is in the bullseye right now. That means count on partly cloudy skies with a slight breeze out of the northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Need to be watching the western GOM. It has a better shot at affecting land (US/Mex) atm compared to our 10+ day OTS journeyman way out in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Bullseye from what? gfs now says a weak typical atlantic strom might struggle into the gom while the euro says squat. the only thing the US is in the bullseye from right now is nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Bullseye from what? gfs now says a weak typical atlantic strom might struggle into the gom while the euro says squat. the only thing the US is in the bullseye from right now is nothing. Not that I think the GFS is right, but one run does not a bust make: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 If the euro shows that tonight then i will get interested. GFS has been all over the place and it seems the gfs upgrade only made the model worse, at least for the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 5, 2017 Author Share Posted August 5, 2017 Glad someone is taking this seriously Mike's Weather Page 23 hrs · I usually don't go out on a limb... but with Invest 90 and Invest 99 on everyone's minds I wanted to share who I believe could be in the impact zone the next couple weeks. I tried to narrow it down. Please share. Please be prepared! www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Sheer obliterates this thing if it goes into the Caribbean. THANKS PACIFIC. Need this to develop soon to survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/4/2017 at 4:04 PM, NCSNOW said: Need to be watching the western GOM. It has a better shot at affecting land (US/Mex) atm compared to our 10+ day OTS journeyman way out in the Atlantic. Right on que, we have Tropical storm Franklin . Probably gets some RI once it gets across the yucatan. Very early to be at the F storm in the alphabet already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 8, 2017 Author Share Posted August 8, 2017 RAH this morning... While the tropical disturbance centered about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning is not currently expected to significantly strengthen during at least the next several days, it will bear watching as it migrates around the srn periphery of a sub- tropical ridge over the swrn N. Atlantic through early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Solak said: RAH this morning... While the tropical disturbance centered about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning is not currently expected to significantly strengthen during at least the next several days, it will bear watching as it migrates around the srn periphery of a sub- tropical ridge over the swrn N. Atlantic through early next week. strange for them to mention this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 8, 2017 Author Share Posted August 8, 2017 JB is watching it, too. Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Explained on Daily summary why I am worried about 99L Carol, ,Edna 1954 with major nw trough,big upper ridge Canada.Pattern similar day 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 Models are trending towards some development and re-curve off the East coast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Time for reality check on Invest 99. Barely any convection, shear double allowable limit, pocket of dry air to the West. Time to part ways from this and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 55 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Time for reality check on Invest 99. Barely any convection, shear double allowable limit, pocket of dry air to the West. Time to part ways from this and move on. I hope you aren’t serious? We have the Euro and it’s ensembles developing this, convection is increasing tonight, environment will begin improving tomorrow, warmer sea surface temperatures, pocket of dry air is moving west away from it, and plenty of time to see gradual development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Looks like the same dead season we have had the last number of years. Nothing can do anything in the MDR and the only place in the whole basin marginally favorable is the BOC. You have to wonder how in the heck storms like Isabel in 2003, Hugo in 1989 ever formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Invest 99L looks good this AM. Lots of convection. Models are showing a recurve if anything were to develop.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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