olafminesaw Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah saw that of course this is where the GFS had it on the 00Z run ....just a wee bit different The Euro has a weak system in the same place FWIW (Develops along the coast, so very different really.) Always nice too a see a capture, even when models are in useless range: A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 12z has a Mathew repeat. Glad we have at least something to track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 GFS really wanting a hurricane! Let's see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 9, 2017 Author Share Posted July 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 1 hour ago, SN_Lover said: GFS really wanting a hurricane! Let's see if it verifies. GFS has been all over the place with a hurricane for the past week. From off the outerbanks all the way to the Mexico coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, yotaman said: GFS has been all over the place with a hurricane for the past week. From off the outerbanks all the way to the Mexico coast. Yup! If we do get a hurricane somewhere, props to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 I'll be at the tail end of a Holden Beach trip on Friday July 19th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 In this range its more about all the models agreeing with the general idea of a storm, much less where it will be, that said with the way the ridges are setting up further east and fairly strong troughs come in every 6-7 days the east coast could be in trouble if a enough storms form this season, one of them will get through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 20 hours ago, SN_Lover said: 12z has a Mathew repeat. Glad we have at least something to track now. Eh, we're ready just like always. Even scored a free generator from someone who upgraded theirs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 last several runs back to GOM, but the key take away is that the GFS keeps the storm run to run....however the other models dont really seem to have it at all so we shall see, the GFS is really bullish with the wave and has it 1010mb or lower well east of the islands by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 NHC is also looking at the remnants of TD 4 for possible redevelopment. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 101530 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1130 AM EDT MON 10 JULY 2017 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2017 TCPOD NUMBER.....17-040 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04A FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 A. 11/2100Z B. AFXXX 0104A INVEST C. 11/1645Z D. 23.0N 68.5W E. 11/2030Z TO 12/0030Z F. SFC TO 10,000FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION AT 12/1730Z NEAR 23.5N 72.5W II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ WJM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 3 hours ago, downeastnc said: last several runs back to GOM, but the key take away is that the GFS keeps the storm run to run....however the other models dont really seem to have it at all so we shall see, the GFS is really bullish with the wave and has it 1010mb or lower well east of the islands by the end of the week. Latest run has it back running up the east coast as a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 LOL 18z. Winter is gonna be rough for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 9:44 PM, NCSNOW said: I'll be at the tail end of a Holden Beach trip on Friday July 19th lol. Or at the front end of my Myrtle Beach week starting the 23rd. I would LOVE to experience a tropical storm, maybe even a glancing Cat1. But not at the expense of my vacation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 9 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Or at the front end of my Myrtle Beach week starting the 23rd. I would LOVE to experience a tropical storm, maybe even a glancing Cat1. But not at the expense of my vacation! Several for me. It's pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 I've only experienced 1 hurricane: Hugo, in Gastonia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: I've only experienced 1 hurricane: Hugo, in Gastonia! 1 eye (Fran) several glances from multiple hurricanes and one direct hit from an F4 that killed my neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Looks like we can fork any TCs through the area for the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like we can fork any TCs through the area for the next 15 days. That's what those El Niños will do for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 gfs trying to bring the storm back in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, shaggy said: gfs trying to bring the storm back in the long range. Para doesn't have it though and it is taking over this week.....or next week.....either way the location of the Bermuda ridge is worrisome for the SE if something does form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 18, 2017 Author Share Posted July 18, 2017 Don The official advisory for #TSDon has been issued by @NHC_Atlantic. The storm could slightly strengthen & then dissipate w/in 72 hours. #FLwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 18, 2017 Author Share Posted July 18, 2017 At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 53.8 West. Don is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track the center of Don will move through the Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Next ! The one behind Don, is the one to watch! Eastcoast threat possibly, depending on recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Most models form a low right on the NC coast late in July then take it OTS....might not be totally tropical but should be a big rain maker. models really don't do anything with the wave trailing Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 I think I know where we could save some money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 30, 2017 Author Share Posted July 30, 2017 NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center added 2 new photos. 24 mins · On this Sunday morning, NHC is monitoring two areas over the Atlantic basin. One is a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this broad disturbance is possible over the next several days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. The other is an area of low pressure that is forecast to develop along a dissipating frontal boundar... See More LikeShow more reactions Comment Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 CMC all by itself on this so far but its had it for a couple of days now, it is almost across 75W still moving WNW/NW at the last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: CMC all by itself on this so far but its had it for a couple of days now, it is almost across 75W still moving WNW/NW at the last frame. Even that scenario , would be quick recurve, fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Yep tropics are fixing to kick into high gear, but so are the's mid summer lottery troughs we jackpoted on. Will save some property damage for sure if anything makes a run at our coast next 12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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