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2017 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters.

Entries are welcome into early June without penalty.

This is where to go if you're interested ...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/

Thanks. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
8 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

The models have been hinting about GOM Low around the June 18th-19th time period for several runs now. Any thoughts on this?

Trend in the models has been west with the low hitting somewhere around the Mexico/US border....the outlier is the CMC which has it hitting the TX/LA border but this is a significant shift west for it from yesterdays runs that had it hitting Fl panhandle..... This all assumes of course that something does actually form. 

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The CMC is much faster with the evolution of the GOM low and thus has it getting picked up by the incoming trough and crossing the SE with biblical flood inducing rains over western SC/NC and north GA, it is the outlier however and the GFS/Euro are much slower with the low and allow the trough to bypass the low and then take it west into Mexico as the ridge builds in to the north behind the trough. So the CMC has the rem low all the way up in Maine and the others have it way deep in the GOM hitting Mexico at hr 240.....

CMC rainfall total map....this would be bad its been very wet in these areas already and 8-12" in a hurry is just bad news...

gem_apcpn_us_39.thumb.png.2a76a7157eb186b5ed45958ecabb99c0.png

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On ‎6‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 5:27 PM, downeastnc said:

The CMC is much faster with the evolution of the GOM low and thus has it getting picked up by the incoming trough and crossing the SE with biblical flood inducing rains over western SC/NC and north GA, it is the outlier however and the GFS/Euro are much slower with the low and allow the trough to bypass the low and then take it west into Mexico as the ridge builds in to the north behind the trough. So the CMC has the rem low all the way up in Maine and the others have it way deep in the GOM hitting Mexico at hr 240.....

CMC rainfall total map....this would be bad its been very wet in these areas already and 8-12" in a hurry is just bad news...

gem_apcpn_us_39.thumb.png.2a76a7157eb186b5ed45958ecabb99c0.png

That would be a very bad scenario for the mountains.

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4 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

And anyone else in the path of that much rain. 

 

Not saying it it happens but things are looking better for this type of solution.

 

Yeah GFS para and CMC both have it just off the coast at 120 hrs...its starting to get out of lala land and into legit range on the models. Starting to think there is a pretty solid chance we get Bret out of this, and it impacts the SE directly.....

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two_atl_5d0.png

View 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  This disturbance continues to show signs of
organization, and some additional development is possible
during the next couple of days before conditions become less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected
to continue moving toward the west at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over most of Honduras and the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.  Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into
the south-central Gulf of Mexico early next week.  Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our local mets said even if this goes north to the gulf coast of Florida, we in the W Carolinas and N Ga would see 0 impacts, no rain! :(

This pups going west or put it this way it will never get any closer to us than 50-100 miles off northern gulf coast. Read webber and he did a great job explaining how models will trend toward the euro on this one. Keep an eye on the invest in the Atlantic it looks more likely than not it's gonna make it to the carribean but who knows how strong or where it goes after that point.

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10 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

This pups going west or put it this way it will never get any closer to us than 50-100 miles off northern gulf coast. Read webber and he did a great job explaining how models will trend toward the euro on this one. Keep an eye on the invest in the Atlantic it looks more likely than not it's gonna make it to the carribean but who knows how strong or where it goes after that point.

Well in fact the euro last night took a big step toward the CMC/GFS camp. 

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2 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Well in fact the euro last night took a big step toward the CMC/GFS camp. 

Yes! Definitely a Northerly and Easterly shift overnight! I need this thing to move N towards MS and FL and pull NE towards me!  Being selfish, I still need a good bit of rain, despite most being wet around me. Get it while you can!

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16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yes! Definitely a Northerly and Easterly shift overnight! I need this thing to move N towards MS and FL and pull NE towards me!  Being selfish, I still need a good bit of rain, despite most being wet around me. Get it while you can!

I know somebody once told me seize the moment and don't squander it.  Cause you never know when it could all be over tomorrow. 

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