• Member Statistics

    15,530
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    UniversesBelowNormal
    Newest Member
    UniversesBelowNormal
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
HimoorWx

March 18/19 Storm? Will Winter 2016-17 End With a Bang or a Whimper?

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

This is a tenuous setup and small variations aloft can make a huge difference, but that is an absurd shift at the surface on the NAMs.

Loop.thumb.gif.11a0c51bb7d5dd39809df83015007241.gif

The trend really started at 18z.. just was more pronounced this run.

12z was a hiccup run I think 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ray was right... 12z was probably on overtrend west 

Yup. I  was never sold on more than mood flakes out here, but Im a little surprised it's close to whiffing for you guys. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Poof, lol what the hell just happened.  One of the more absurd 6 hr shifts.  Does make my travel morning Sunday easy so no complaints but I do feel for the coastal EMA peeps,that was shaping up nicely. Hail Mary time

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This threat never felt that compelling. Progressive trough, s*** streak, stale cold with weak rates in March.

That said, 12z NAM+ 12z Euro + 12z RGEM jump NW is a hard trend to dismiss, especially for this time range. Ensembles were clustered NW of OP, and this was substantiated with realistic upstream changes at H5. Add to that the 18z RGEM had a suspicious looking piece of vorticity that drove the system too east.

Disappointing while we're looking for the bookend to the season, or something interesting to follow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The developing upper low was stronger at 00z than initialization, especially the Euro. But the Euro was closer to handling the ridging ahead it, even though it was also not strong enough versus reality. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The developing upper low was stronger at 00z than initialization, especially the Euro. But the Euro was closer to handling the ridging ahead it, even though it was also not strong enough versus reality. 

So basically the shift in modeling away from any new England impacts is more than likely correct, and may not be done trending away?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So basically the shift in modeling away from any new England impacts is more than likely correct, and may not be done trending away?

Well I mention it more as a conflicting signal. Usually you would expect strong wave, weak ridge or weak wave, strong ridge and there could be some coherent suggestion what way it should trend. But strong wave, strong ridge, which prevails?

12z fuzzy clustering crapped the bed so I can't see the images, but the 00z last night suggest a weaker ridge led to more NW surface low solutions. So that would agree with the current 00z trend of slip sliding away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is forcing for banding farther west than what the NAM QPF shows, but we need to saturate the DGZ a little better than what it is forecasting otherwise enjoy the overcast.

Congrats Nova Scotia though. Great banding signal up there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just got home and looked at the 00Z suite after just seeing the 12Z suite earlier today, this went from a potential decent event to a complete whiff, major shift in the 00Z models.

And Jerry: the RPM took a substantial jump east, 12-15Z runs had a snowstorm all the way back to the NY boarder and now the 00Z and more so 3Z runs completely whiff all of CT RI and MA save the cape and islands with a couple inches and even that is pushing it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't even see the 00z guidance until now. What a head fake yesterday. There's been some pretty bad modeling inside of 48 hours this season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.