Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March 18/19 Storm? Will Winter 2016-17 End With a Bang or a Whimper?


HimoorWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 394
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Good for skiing, I'm looking forward to record cold skiing on Wednesday.

I am looking forward to bluebird warm days Monday and Tuesday.  Wednesday might be brutal lol but if the Sun is out its different than Jan. Hopefully Thurs and Friday are better. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We've had some mild and dry springs lately. Time to flood. 

Heh... 

It would be an interesting feat if the atmosphere pulled off a climate flood event when the region is still 'saturated' in drought conditions (according to the U.S. DM) 

I know ...I know.  Hydrology considers Short and Long termed desiccation differently - maybe we could jolt the landscape into a huge flood because of quick uptake?

That would be a need trick.  I wonder if that is possible? Rivers way over banks ...park benches and swing-sets inundated and street signs partially submerged that ironically read, 'No parking next 8' ...all the while, the L's at US DM have SNE painted with that Tholin shade of life they use to warn of impending arid death.  Nice.

------

Spring is here in my humble opinion. In fact, for better or worse, for acceptance or not, winter acquiesced back during that warm week in late February ...and the last 'big storm' was more so spring snow storm.  Yeah, we get those from time to time.   It's tough to remember that 'spring' is a human conception ...if not conceit.  There is no rule or temporal boundary that actually exists in Nature. Hell... recall the Halloween snow storm back in 2012?  (Amazing that will be five years this next October - gives one pause). Some would argue that the virtue of spring that year began the week later.  So, obviously there is some subjectivity to this passage (so don't be offended); just a symbolic reflection on matters.

I remember mid stride through this last beastly bomb, despite roaring gust....the snow clumps set free from trees stopped disintegrating, and those curl-over drifts that hung down wind from eaves seemed vestigial of a different setting. At that moment, the air was still festooned by snow and lowered visibility - we just couldn't blow the snow. And, despite the raging it no longer actually felt cold. I stepped forward to sample some snow off the cap-rail of my porch railing and it was so rife with spring warmth that it collapsed into a snow ball almost at first touch.  That was all roughly around the time we witness flicker of light and thought, "wait - was that..." answered closely by heavenly applause... 

It's no big signal to have a storm with those characteristics, no; they've happened before and will happen again any time between Halloween and Easter in years past and going forward. But, it was interesting to me that barely two days prior, a morning low of 9 F occurred here in my town, with a DP of -5 F. Yet, we couldn't keep the atmosphere here in the interior off of a blue snow event in NE wind with dynamics.  Maybe it was just bad timing, but that air mass being moderated that quickly prior to the storm, combined with Feb's big warm-up ... and now, the models with this oscillatory pattern that is sans really deep cold going forward ... yeah, it's spring. 

Unfortunately, however ... this doesn't look like a clean break into warmth this year, not even close - unless there is a reality out there that divorces from the model's virtual presentation of what that reality will be.  There is modeled cold air (enough so?) lingering across Canada, in an overall weird look/evolution (for me). 

We have a SE ridge/southern height positive bias (more centered in the SE ridge however). Yet, ...set/evolving over top is an undulating wave train ...replete with occasional closures, and pockets of cold and stressed baroclinic zones and so forth. It's a pattern equally rife with 'bowling ball' potential... Or, yet we could still time enough chill post a day near 70, to have another blue snow event with that look.  Good luck trying to predict the advent of either of those extremes.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Too many green Bud Light beers yesterday.

Hey Garth went to the Sun for pro indoor lacrosse yesterday.  Great time and action. I never had seen it live before.  Excellent fight to end the first half. Definitely going back, 15 bucks for a ticket

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd like to get pope benedict in here to remind me once again of how inaccurate, biased and impulsive my forecasts are.

 

Not you, per se, Ray ... but, one of the natural tendencies by those that I suspect, quite literally experience Dopamine spikes by the mere presentation of modeling depictions *(which is thusly somewhat akin to drug addictive behavior btw) is that part of that is an 'eliding' that goes on in people, as they process the various information sources. 

Eliding ... the third preference essentially boils down to, 'selectively not considering variables so as to achieve a desired result.'  

Politicians do this regularly as a means to affect the masses and inspire moods/reactions along a desired course ... some more so than others - we'll leave it at that. 

But, I also find that a form of this phenomenon (...I guess we could call that a kind of 'cherry picking' in a way) happens, almost unconsciously, perpetually, as information enters the minds of those in this snow-cocaine business. 

I kind of mused about this the other day ... how memes get going that are cobbled out of some proportion reality and fiction, and then .. folks buy into those meme, because they are also prone to the same phenomenon of eliding. Next thing we know, there is a kind of collective opinion that is forged, that is some percentage less than likely or even real.  Sometimes the percentage is very small and negligible... other times, like, ..when spring is ending and no one in the bastion of contributors that can stand summer (to the point of abasing topics even centered on summer at that), their desperation ratchets up the phenomenon. 

I'm not holier than thou in all that; not even close. I'm sure I've contributed to doing that myself at some point or the other. However, I did try to cast doubt on the idea for this next system, based on some Met observations about the synoptic evolution. I noticed a definite lack of replies to those off-set arguments.  That is eliding... Then, folks end up in a situation where they are ill-prepared when things fall apart because there really is a collective delusion that is shattered.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The thing is, this storm will whiff the cape. I don't think anyone expected the RPM, but I doubt people expected a Cape whiff. Pretty impressive model change. 

I do t think anyone can lay claim to forecasting a whiff for pretty much everyone.  I thought it would be a minor, yet enjoyable, event for a bunch of SE posters (Ginxland, to TAN, to your area, to CC...I expected flurries to an inch here

This was def a Lucy shift.   Ah well.  Nice weekend enroute.  Maybe I will play at the mountain this evening for a bit

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Not you, per se, Ray ... but, one of the natural tendencies by those that I suspect, quite literally experience Dopamine spikes by the mere presentation of modeling depictions *(which is thusly somewhat akin to drug addictive behavior btw) is that part of that is an 'eliding' that goes on in people, as they process the various information sources. 

Eliding ... the third preference essentially boils down to, 'selectively not considering variables so as to achieve a desired result.'  

Politicians do this regularly as a means to affect the masses and inspire moods/reactions along a desired course ... some more so than others - we'll leave it at that. 

But, I also find that a form of this phenomenon (...I guess we could call that a kind of 'cherry picking' in a way) happens, almost unconsciously, perpetually, as information enters the minds of those in this snow-cocaine business. 

I kind of mused about this the other day ... how memes get going that are cobbled out of some proportion reality and fiction, and then .. folks buy into those meme, because they are also prone to the same phenomenon of eliding. Next thing we know, there is a kind of collective opinion that is forged, that is some percentage less than likely or even real.  Sometimes the percentage is very small and negligible... other times, like, ..when spring is ending and no one in the bastion of contributors that can stand summer (to the point of abasing topics even centered on summer at that), their desperation ratchets up the phenomenon. 

I'm not holier than thou in all that; not even close. I'm sure I've contributed to doing that myself at some point or the other. However, I did try to cast doubt on the idea for this next system, based on some Met observations about the synoptic evolution. I noticed a definite lack of replies to those off-set arguments.  That is eliding... Then, folks end up in a situation where they are ill-prepared when things fall apart because there really is a collective delusion that is shattered.

I'm with you...I was never big on this threat, and figured models would do the east shuffle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I do t think anyone can lay claim to forecasting a whiff for pretty much everyone.  I thought it would be a minor, yet enjoyable, event for a bunch of SE posters (Ginxland, to TAN, to your area, to CC...I expected flurries to an inch here

This was def a Lucy shift.   Ah well.  Nice weekend enroute.  Maybe I will play at the mountain this evening for a bit

Same.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

With 6 to 8 inches of concrete OTG March 18th, we take

The snowpack is do thick and dense its incredible. Last night when i get home i could walk on top of the snowpack without falling through without a problem, in fact the only way i could crack it was to jump up and down heavily on it. Really hasnt melted much at all the past 5 days, which is really amazing for mid-march. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it was wasted cold.  We could all argue and disagree because my feeling is mine and yours is yours.  But as cold as it has been, I need some serious snow-well above what I received this eek.  My glacier has been most annoying with plenty of ice I've had to avoid and my walking about is far more difficult. It can't melt soon enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think it was wasted cold.  We could all argue and disagree because my feeling is mine and yours is yours.  But as cold as it has been, I need some serious snow-well above what I received this eek.  My glacier has been most annoying with plenty of ice I've had to avoid and my walking about is far more difficult. It can't melt soon enough.

Kids are skating on the kettle pond down the street, unreal for post St Patty's day. Pretty awesome to see a midwinter scene in the entire NE

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kids are skating on the kettle pond down the street, unreal for post St Patty's day. Pretty awesome to see a midwinter scene in the entire NE

Kids will always find fun to do.  I'm talking entirely for myself.  I would much rather warm wx but alas-2012 it isn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think it was wasted cold.  We could all argue and disagree because my feeling is mine and yours is yours.  But as cold as it has been, I need some serious snow-well above what I received this eek.  My glacier has been most annoying with plenty of ice I've had to avoid and my walking about is far more difficult. It can't melt soon enough.

If you lived west..you wouldn't be feeling that way.  Way better out this way..we got a great dose from mother nature, and we put the cold to good use over here!!  

 

Best sustained winter period of the entire Winter hands down.  We couldn't get any cold to stay and hold...never mind snow to stay, but the last 8 to 10 days have been great. And it came in March no less...impressive end to astronomical winter for this area.  

 

Though Out east..I get your point.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...