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March 18/19 Storm? Will Winter 2016-17 End With a Bang or a Whimper?


HimoorWx

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ray was right... 12z was probably on overtrend west 

Be that as it may, I shouldn't have dismissed it so readily, regardless of how this turns out.

Never felt this one, though.

Beware the over trend of miller Bs, and relentless trend west of miller As.

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This threat never felt that compelling. Progressive trough, s*** streak, stale cold with weak rates in March.

That said, 12z NAM+ 12z Euro + 12z RGEM jump NW is a hard trend to dismiss, especially for this time range. Ensembles were clustered NW of OP, and this was substantiated with realistic upstream changes at H5. Add to that the 18z RGEM had a suspicious looking piece of vorticity that drove the system too east.

Disappointing while we're looking for the bookend to the season, or something interesting to follow.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The developing upper low was stronger at 00z than initialization, especially the Euro. But the Euro was closer to handling the ridging ahead it, even though it was also not strong enough versus reality. 

So basically the shift in modeling away from any new England impacts is more than likely correct, and may not be done trending away?

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So basically the shift in modeling away from any new England impacts is more than likely correct, and may not be done trending away?

Well I mention it more as a conflicting signal. Usually you would expect strong wave, weak ridge or weak wave, strong ridge and there could be some coherent suggestion what way it should trend. But strong wave, strong ridge, which prevails?

12z fuzzy clustering crapped the bed so I can't see the images, but the 00z last night suggest a weaker ridge led to more NW surface low solutions. So that would agree with the current 00z trend of slip sliding away.

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Just got home and looked at the 00Z suite after just seeing the 12Z suite earlier today, this went from a potential decent event to a complete whiff, major shift in the 00Z models.

And Jerry: the RPM took a substantial jump east, 12-15Z runs had a snowstorm all the way back to the NY boarder and now the 00Z and more so 3Z runs completely whiff all of CT RI and MA save the cape and islands with a couple inches and even that is pushing it.

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