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March 18/19 Storm? Will Winter 2016-17 End With a Bang or a Whimper?


HimoorWx

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Hehhh... there's intangibles about this that make that less confident - warning and so forth .. 

For one, we are rotting Hades into this air mass today with this unabated Equinox insolation all over SE Canada and northeastern U.S..

One thing I've noticed over the years... the models don't seem to have parameters in them for this sort of 'conditional acceleration' that happens in the spring.  They take the initializations and run with it, as though the sun won't modulate (March and April phenomenon)...but the processing doesn't "seem" to include the adulteration of the initialized air when there is 24 to 36 hours of moderation set to take place. 

The dynamics need to be pretty impressive ...OR, can we get the lion's share at night?  that's a possible offset too - 

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One other thing that's interesting to me ... the wave spacing across N/A is better suited for this one than the last. 

Despite the vastly inferior mechanical power of this one's total synoptic evolution, perhaps it will be proficient for having a better spatial-temporal relationship in the medium.  

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let's see what the Euro shows...will it Bite???   Will it be more amped up??  Or does it slam the door shut on the trend?

Dont really care that much for it these days as a seal of approval or denial. It is just another piece of guidance, one had to use it strengths and know its weaknesses but not use it as a end all be all like in years past. 

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28 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

UKIE is definitely less impressive at the surface than 0z

 

Depends where...for far SE MA it was, but the rest of the region it looked better. But it's kind of trivial anyway. I thought aloft it took a step.

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