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Possible ligh snow event 3/18-3/19 & Obs


Zelocita Weather

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I think there's a small chance for a significant snowstorm with this, at least locally/regionally.  The mid/upper level low slides slowly eastward as it deepens.  This makes for a relatively long duration of possible precipitation.  Light precip could move into the area as early as Fri night, but the better chance of something heavier is probably around Sat. night.  Right now it looks light, localized, and non-continuous.   It also looks warm near the coast and at low elevations.  But if heavier bands develop over land, they could linger over some areas for a while.  If this occurs at night, it could be a close call even for coastal sections.

Most likely we're talking a general 1-4" possible, just inland and esp with a little elevation.  But I think this has sneaky higher end potential.  There's the high baroclinicity environment, potent, relatively slow moving shortwave, and possible inverted trof interaction.  With a slightly sharper H5 trof, the area from coastal NJ up through NYC, the lower HV, and LI would have to watch out for a possible pasting.

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This would be our last real snow threat in my opinion. 3-6 would be great a nice refresher and a decent snowstorm to end the year. Euro looked great and nam looked decent. Maybe the euro is not on crack cause the nam has something like the euro in regards to the amounts. 12z runs should be telling us what the real deal is!

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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

This would be our last real snow threat in my opinion. 3-6 would be great a nice refresher and a decent snowstorm to end the year. Euro looked great and nam looked decent. Maybe the euro is not on crack cause the nam has something like the euro in regards to the amounts. 12z runs should be telling us what the real deal is!

This looks like the last event for the winter unless the storm next week trends favorable.

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9 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

Man oh MAN. EURO wants to burn us twice in one week??

EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 

That is just the LP position on Sunday afternoon. It doesnt show what happens precip wise before that

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18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 

Exactly because we know how great the EPS did with this last storm.  It locked it in over the weekend and still failed.  I'll focus on the NAM on this one.

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41 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

Man oh MAN. EURO wants to burn us twice in one week??

Have you looked outside? Queens did not get burned. This past snowstorm has had the same, if not more, impact then a 15" powder event.

Queens received 6"-10". That is far from "burned". Euro Kuchera had the exact amount correct. 6"-10"

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5 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Have you looked outside? Queens did not get burned. This past snowstorm has had the same, if not more, impact then a 15" powder event.

Queens received 6"-10". That is far from "burned". Euro Kuchera had the exact amount correct. 6"-10"

IMO, this has more of an impact vs a big snowstorm.

There are vehicles which still can't get out of their parking spots ( like mine )

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35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 

The ole mighty EPS

How did that do with the last storm?

It has sucked this winter

Can the miller b miss us? Yes

This is why we will continue tracking this

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47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 

How about 18 hours earlier when the storm is actually affecting us?

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4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

How about 18 hours earlier when the storm is actually affecting us?

Heres the NAM at the same time period...looks pretty east. What can we determine happened the previous 24 hours judging just by looking at the low position at 2 pm sunday? 

EE023ADD-486C-4274-BEA3-DB90BCBE9CA4_zps

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18 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

And we ALL know how well those do down here!

I'm in MMU, and I've heard of Norlun troughs, but they usually hit the Catskills and Connecticut far more than down here, correct? Are there any examples of Norluns hitting NYC Metro particularly hard in the past 25 years? Thanks in advance. I vaguely remember one hitting Litchfield and Fairfield county hard in 2011, but that's it.

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6 minutes ago, North and West of Town said:

I'm in MMU, and I've heard of Norlun troughs, but they usually hit the Catskills and Connecticut far more than down here, correct? Are there any examples of Norluns hitting NYC Metro particularly hard in the past 25 years? Thanks in advance. I vaguely remember one hitting Litchfield and Fairfield county hard in 2011, but that's it.

This is how infrequent it is around NYC. last time was 6 years ago ( and Im not even sure how it turned) 3-6 inches were forcast...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/narrow-heavy-snow-band-to-targ/44005

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The NAM is not done trending aloft.  Stronger shortwave ridge between the upstream and downstream s/w trofs.  Pretty potent looking.  The wave is also slightly deeper and sharper than 6z.  A slightly cooler airmass is also locked in place.  Regardless how this particular run evolves, as long as guidance is still trending, there is upside potential.

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32 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

And we ALL know how well those do down here!

If the inverted trough (if one forms) it is going to hit New England, as they always do. How many times have they been predicted here and it turned into total futility. I'm making the call right now and Morris can throw it in my face if I'm wrong, but over the next 2 days the models will shift the norlun will shift into eastern New England and this "event" will turn into a non event down here Saturday. Little to no accumulation this weekend. Boundary layer temps too warm, crappy thicknesses, weak isentropic/overrunning, late March. This will be the next bust for the area

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