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Possible ligh snow event 3/18-3/19 & Obs


Zelocita Weather

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2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

12z NAM looks good, 0.5" QPF for most of N NJ/NYC, with more on the island. 

Was good to see the .5 line move back west of the city...The LP is a bit further SW this run allowing some more precip to wrap back west as the coastal forms.

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We have a narrow window on Saturday night for areas NW of the city to get a few inches as a piece of mid-level vorticy pinwheels around the trough.

namconus_z500_vort_neus_36.png

By the early morning hours on Sunday, the best forcing is South of Long Island and then pinwheels up into SNE which is why the far East end has a chance of getting more than the rest of the area.

namconus_z500_vort_neus_39.png

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

It's not that marginal, 850s are like -5C and dewpoints are low. That being said, the 2-4" for NYC and 4-6" for White Plains may not verify if everything is shunted east. NWS seems aggressive.

Also it's not late March. It's march 17th, not the 27th. It's mid march. Exaggeration again

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1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Impressive, per that QPF map output it almost looks like a more traditional CCB/coastal pattern than a IVT

On the 3 km NAM, it seems that a CCB develops for a short period of time. The north shore of Nassau County is in the proverbial bullseye on that model right now, but inverted troughs are fickle and very difficult to forecast.

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

RGEM keeps Best snowfall in LHV, NNJ and into city, Long Island sees less

 

edit: north shore sees about .25" LE snow 

 

rgem still looks to be a general 2-4" 5 in some parts of NNJ

Its a big improvement from the 6Z

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

RGEM keeps Best snowfall in LHV, NNJ and into city, Long Island sees less

The 3km NAM loves the ridge line in Western Morris county for this one.  It's like how it had that megaband set up right over Northern Morris for the blizzard run after run.  That worked out well...

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The RGEM has good overruning for Western areas which is why it's spitting out close to an inch LE in most of Central and Northern NJ with not much East of the Hudson.

You can see here the excellent flow at 850mb with the moisture transport right off the ocean as the 850mb low develops off the NJ coast.

 

rgem_mslp_uv850_neus_14.png

The problem for Long Island this run is that the jet max ends up too far Northeast. Look at how much the LLJ intensifies just six hours later. You want to be just north of the LLJ max for the heaviest precip.

rgem_mslp_uv850_neus_16.png

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