• Member Statistics

    15,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    davisinstruments
    Newest Member
    davisinstruments
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem VII

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's not over

But didn't you post yesterday "WE END"???

 

I think for all those making bold predictions one way or the other...you're bound to be burned by those words in March in SNE...just saying.  Late March through a lot of April usually isn't fun around here...Misery Mist and damp cold temps...ftl.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But didn't you post yesterday "WE END"???

 

I think for all those making bold predictions one way or the other...you're bound to be burned by those words in March in SNE...just saying.  Late March through a lot of April usually isn't fun around here...Misery Mist and damp cold temps...ftl.

He has struggled like the models. I still cant decide whether I should shovel the snow from this weekend or post my beach volleyball scores. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is almost pretty colors FTL season at H5. For those who are not familiar, it's when Kevin posts about oranges and reds at 500mb on his cryptic euro freebie charts, without checking the surface MSLP pattern.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ya 12-15 inches isn't happening..but mixed precip with slush and temps in the low 30's...that's certainly a possibility imo????  Which sucks too.    A lot of cold lurking close by...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's actually pretty good model agreement on this 3/26 threat given the timeframe...Ukie/GGEM/GFS/Euro all have it....GGEM is probably the least favorable (that's probably a good thing for snow lovers) while the other 3 are not very far apart.

 

It is definitely worth keeping an eye on...I wouldn't get any expectations yet this early though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Most likely but I wouldn't rule out anything just yet.

Didn't  you just say it was over south of SNE last week?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But didn't you post yesterday "WE END"???

 

I think for all those making bold predictions one way or the other...you're bound to be burned by those words in March in SNE...just saying.  Late March through a lot of April usually isn't fun around here...Misery Mist and damp cold temps...ftl.

We ebb .. we flow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see a lot of model noise that is more likely happenstance coincident on that last week.. but what do I know. 

Having said that, the entire domain space between about 100 W and the East coast isn't terrible (if your looking for cold and misery to enable the denial of spring a little longer... heh) in the lower troposphere as there is tendencies everywhere above 35 N for easterly/N component..  

Cycle after cycle, regardless of model, ... I keep seeing pearled surface anticyclones migrating ESE through N-central Canada toward the Maritimes ... in a steady procession of them. The mean circulation tendency everywhere is a constant spring retardant grip like cold lion paws.

In terms of establishing a real 'not fake' warm up ... not likely.  Despite any ridging intervals at 500 mb that formulate and bulge in pulses up from the S, the best we're likely to do in that sort of regime is rimming the ridge over top of a hugely sloped ambient polar boundary that extends in principle from Milwaukee to D.C.. Anything NE of that virtual approximation doesn't get to go to the early warm up party beyond brief stints and frets that immediately collapse back south.  That's the way it looks like until the first week of April...when we'll see if that mammoth +EPO extends across Canada and pulls the westerlies more unilaterally N at that time - which could happen (frankly wondering if April may just be an uncharacteristically warm/pleasant month for everyone except our sore butted BD of a region...)

Having said that...a general easterly to NE tendency (NW CAA interludes for that matter) does all positively service cyclone probabilities by native enhancing baroclinicity.  What I'm seeing in the dailies/determinism (below these overall concepts) are bowling balls with less then confidence due to the inherent timing and amplitude (and positioning) headaches the models typically have endemic to spring.

In other words, yes the regime could provide something... but it may take a shorter look. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's actually pretty good model agreement on this 3/26 threat given the timeframe...Ukie/GGEM/GFS/Euro all have it....GGEM is probably the least favorable (that's probably a good thing for snow lovers) while the other 3 are not very far apart.

 

It is definitely worth keeping an eye on...I wouldn't get any expectations yet this early though.

Wake me up on 3/25.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wake me up before you go go

Drip, drip, drip.  Plenty of melting yesterday even with the winds.  Above 32f the last 5 days, 4 of those in the 40s.  Down to a few spots of snow.  Soon to be engaging in Spring cleanup/greenup.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Drip, drip, drip.  Plenty of melting yesterday even with the winds.  Above 32f the last 5 days, 4 of those in the 40s.  Down to a few spots of snow.  Soon to be engaging in Spring cleanup/greenup.

Today is the equinox-seasons in seasons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WinterWolf said:

Still continuous and solid snow cover here...no bare spots.  It's melting...but very slowly that's for sure.  

That's what it's like imby and you I probably had less snow than you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Drip, drip, drip.  Plenty of melting yesterday even with the winds.  Above 32f the last 5 days, 4 of those in the 40s.  Down to a few spots of snow.  Soon to be engaging in Spring cleanup/greenup.

Still a lot left . A good 9-12".

Yet we soccer

http://B020D20C-9EB9-4917-BE4A-8D7BC17C6801_zps

http://02C7EB15-15F9-4965-8507-76E05A3AB86C_zps

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Glad we don't live there.  God awful.  It's Spring.

I know what you mean, Bob, ...but as a "weather enthusiasts" - to which my shattered hopes and dreams chime to the floor in shards all too frequently around here when I reflect on other's :)  - one should be able to change gears on a dime.  You know?  Be amazed for big spring blue bombs?

Yeah, I know ...too much to ask.  I'm not faulting or chiding or lampooning anyone (really I'm not); I realize that for some folks, this whole aspect of moods and perspectives on matters being stuck in a kind of causal relationship to rules about what seasons go where, cannot be consoled.  

...Seeing as you asked and are so interested... for me, I'm down right outre ... period.  It could be July 10, when I am in my annual heightened fascination for heat wave synoptics (really, I am!), and should a snow storm somehow pop up ala 1816 style I'd be rootin and-a tootin'!  I guess it just comes down to compartmentalizing and disconnecting what we want from whatever it is inside us that drives our senses of wonder.  I don't conflate those two - Long words to simply say, I can enjoy off-season anomalies just as well.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeezus Tip, you make me want to take a toaster bath...I know, I know, you're just the interpreter...

But for someone who has an outdoor job, you just broke my heart...

My least favorite season in New England is Spring...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had full coverage even at my house. I think I have one spot that gets full sun where some grass is showing. It's tenacious. I'm sure today and tomorrow will take care of the sunny spots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Jeezus Tip, you make me want to take a toaster bath...I know, I know, you're just the interpreter...

But for someone who has an outdoor job, you just broke my heart...

My least favorite season in New England is Spring...

I was in Plymouth back on friday....was wondering if I'd bump into you along the waterfront! LOL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Jeezus Tip, you make me want to take a toaster bath...I know, I know, you're just the interpreter...

But for someone who has an outdoor job, you just broke my heart...

My least favorite season in New England is Spring...

Sorry bro -

But hey..., accentuate the positive.  We're only talking ten days ...maybe two weeks worth.  That's not much time... The teleconnectors don't really favor a protracted winter this year.  We are really just recovering from what has transpired in that regard over the last month, and a lot of cold loading that took place and merely needs to be exhausted.  Also, the convolutions in the flow that help confluence episodically and weding highs from the N should extinct given the strong +EPO... Eventually that's likely to send more a zonal flow down stream across Canada which tends to offset all that.  

Obviously there is some speculation involved there; and spring is notoriously a fickle season with anti-correlated results sometimes happening just to f-up a perfectly sound outlook...  Barring the sore butt scenario I wouldn't be shocked if things seasonally accelerate in the first week of April given that spread.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

You've been saying that since the last week in January....

Yup ... wow, you nailed it... sure have.  Good call -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry bro -

But hey..., accentuate the positive.  We're only talking ten days ...maybe two weeks worth.  That's not much time... The teleconnectors don't really favor a protracted winter this year.  We are really just recovering from what has transpired in that regard over the last month, and a lot of cold loading that took place and merely needs to be exhausted.  Also, the convolutions in the flow that help confluence episodically and weding highs from the N should extinct given the strong +EPO... Eventually that's likely to send more a zonal flow down stream across Canada which tends to offset all that.  

Obviously there is some speculation involved there; and spring is notoriously a fickle season with anti-correlated results sometimes happening just to f-up a perfectly sound outlook...  Barring the sore butt scenario I wouldn't be shocked if things seasonally accelerate in the first week of April given that spread.  

She's no bro bro.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.