Model Mayhem VII

[tamarack]

GYX has bought into the messy mix scenario with the PM AFD and forecast.  Farmington's "most likely" now 2", was 5" this morning.  Except for last month's blizzard, that late downsizing has occurred for every snow event since the Feb. 12-13 dump.  And it's verified at or below the revised-downward number each time. 

And I'm scratching my head as well.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

GYX has bought into the messy mix scenario with the PM AFD and forecast.  Farmington's "most likely" now 2", was 5" this morning.  Except for last month's blizzard, that late downsizing has occurred for every snow event since the Feb. 12-13 dump.  And it's verified at or below the revised-downward number each time. 

And I'm scratching my head as well.

At least 1", Most likely 1", Potential for this much 8" is there maps

[OceanStWx]

I mean the forecast soundings to me look rather stale at the mid levels over a lot of Maine.

What I mean is that there is really no push of the warm nose aloft, temps just sort of are what they are and don't change much throughout the event. Now if you're on the cold side, that could mean majority snow. If you're on the warm side, it could mean very little snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah this one looks just like all those others this winter from the SE thru D.C. And finally SNE. You think you're good and cold and snow and the midlevel warming just gets way north of models. Bet this ends up quick mix to rain clear up into south central Maine 

[Lava Rock]

Pretty much looking like 6-8" is a lock here now.

Really? Looks like big reduction here. 1".

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Really? Looks like big reduction here. 1".

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

8 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

please stop the snow now.

What a difference 8 hours make, You said to keep the snow away..................

[dendrite]

34F and rain. Onto Spring. 

[Lava Rock]

What a difference 8 hours make, You said to keep the snow away..................

Maybe not. Local met says 4-8", but we're right on the line. Doubt we get more than 1-2.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, dryslot said:

 

What a difference 8 hours make, You said to keep the snow away..................

Play it again Sam, as the pendulum swings back.  Farmington's "most likely" of 2" has now gone to 7", with WS warning.  Mild air has invaded N. NH (BML/HIE in upper 30s) but IZG has snow and 32, so CAD may win again, at least for a while.  Oddly, the P&C has my snow for today/tonight adding to 3-7" while Farmington's numbers come to 5-9".  I've seen that kind of difference a time or two (and the other way when there's a sharp NW cutoff and p-type isn't an issue), but it's not common.  Their co-op site is a few dozen feet higher than my place, might make a difference.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Play it again Sam, as the pendulum swings back.  Farmington's "most likely" of 2" has now gone to 7", with WS warning.  Mild air has invaded N. NH (BML/HIE in upper 30s) but IZG has snow and 32, so CAD may win again, at least for a while.  Oddly, the P&C has my snow for today/tonight adding to 3-7" while Farmington's numbers come to 5-9".  I've seen that kind of difference a time or two (and the other way when there's a sharp NW cutoff and p-type isn't an issue), but it's not common.  Their co-op site is a few dozen feet higher than my place, might make a difference.

Its such a marginal set up that a few miles and a few feet of elevation are going to make a difference, +RN and 34°F right now, But we look to flip to snow later.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its such a marginal set up that a few miles and a few feet of elevation are going to make a difference, +RN and 34°F right now, But we look to flip to snow later.

Really? Big, wet flakes up here on the hill.

I'm already over this event. I don't really feel like trying to work these differences into the grids.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Really? Big, wet flakes up here on the hill.

I'm already over this event. I don't really feel like trying to work these differences into the grids.

lol, It would make for a cool swiss cheese look with yellow and blues, Temp has dropped to 33.4°F,  RASN now as there are some wet snow flakes mixing in.

[alex]

All snow but rather wet here. 33.6

[wxeyeNH]

Me too Alex....    34.3F  snow.   Raining 500 feet below but looking up the ridge the trees are getting snowcovered just above me.

What is the correct thread to post today's obs for this event?  

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Me too Alex....    34.3F  snow.   Raining 500 feet below but looking up the ridge the trees are getting snowcovered just above me.

What is the correct thread to post today's obs for this event?  

I don't know, but I want them. I'll be in here and in the NNE thread following along.

It's starting to look more elevation dependent right now. Which is really to say it just matters what your surface temps are. We were pretty saturated at 850 mb at 12z, and the temp was -4.3C. So there is pretty good cold just off the deck. There is a warm layer in place around 750 mb, but I don't expect it to move much today. 

That's why at 400 feet we have been all snow for nearly an hour, but Dryslot in the ancient lake bed is just starting to mix.

[Typhoon Tip]

Anywho ... down here in southern New England we continue to benefit from a steady diet of drought fixing systems.

Looks like NWS, Taunton's rain totals (radar) product available to the public/web is still dependably, largely shirking of the actual amounts that fell ... making that gross, embarrassing margin for error so dependably large that we can actually work with it   ... Having said that ~ 2" event appears to have transpired. 

Then, we have this next up on the docket ...already loading up into the central Plains and ready to evolve into a big deeper layer pig of an event.  This next one should deliver a goodly stripe of Farmer's Gold into the Lakes and Ontario, while we here thrash rains in wind advisories... Probably good for another 3" soaking anyway, just from the look of the synoptic evolution. Flood watches posted for much of the region west of SNE and after a NWS goes a few rounds against the U.S. Drought Monitoring ...they'll probably cough up a bloody watch for portions of our region one would think.   

In typical spring fashion, the deep resulting low pressure then slowly trundles down under light tickling cold rain harassment driving moods to near suicidal pessimism.  ...actually, save for those that secretly covet joy by spring enthusiast's misery... And while the depression slowly fills ... so too will the mid and u/a component vortexes fill over about a two day period.

After which, duh duh dunnnn... much to the delight of the local pharmaceutical purveyors quarterly reports that deal in XANAX sales to the local sub-forum, climate co-dependence constituency... the signal for a significant warm departure continues to gather steam.

The operational GFS is as usual, annoyed by the warm-up memo.   It just does. It seems to go out of its way to create permutations that erode ridges like on purpose... It did this all last summer. Constantly having to adjust upwards from the extended into the nearer middle range times; I don't see why it's not doing the same thing here.  Not a hugely noticeable aspect/bias (if proven to be so) in that model, but enough. No sooner does it generate a positive geopotential ridge interval like the others, it's always the first and most horny aggressive to beat the ridge right back down again.  We'll see..  But the EPS, the GEFs... the GFS-Para, hell, even the JMA ... models and means alike across the board, all show a 24 hour trend that in total, increases the warm anomaly region of the arc of the ridge as it rolls through Mon-Thursday. So the gist of the signal is in tact and if anything, stronger. 

Speaking of which, the Euro has +16 C during max heating, with dry cloud level RH and well mixed WSW wind next Tuesday.  That's going to be in the upper 80s regardless of whatever machine output it dims that synoptic signal with - which it probably will,  only show 82 or something.  Typical...    

[jbenedet]

Break out the BBQ's for Sunday. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anywho ... down here in southern New England we continue to benefit from a steady diet of drought fixing systems.

Looks like NWS, Taunton's rain totals (radar) product available to the public/web is still dependably, largely shirking of the actual amounts that fell ... making that gross, embarrassing margin for error so dependably large that we can actually work with it   ... Having said that ~ 2" event appears to have transpired. 

Then, we have this next up on the docket ...already loading up into the central Plains and ready to evolve into a big deeper layer pig of an event.  This next one should deliver a goodly stripe of Farmer's Gold into the Lakes and Ontario, while we here thrash rains in wind advisories... Probably good for another 3" soaking anyway, just from the look of the synoptic evolution. Flood watches posted for much of the region west of SNE and after a NWS goes a few rounds against the U.S. Drought Monitoring ...they'll probably cough up a bloody watch for portions of our region one would think.   

In typical spring fashion, the deep resulting low pressure then slowly trundles down under light tickling cold rain harassment driving moods to near suicidal pessimism.  ...actually, save for those that secretly covet joy by spring enthusiast's misery... And while the depression slowly fills ... so too will the mid and u/a component vortexes fill over about a two day period.

After which, duh duh dunnnn... much to the delight of the local pharmaceutical purveyors quarterly reports that deal in XANAX sales to the local sub-forum, climate co-dependence constituency... the signal for a significant warm departure continues to gather steam.

The operational GFS is as usual, annoyed by the warm-up memo.   It just does. It seems to go out of its way to create permutations that erode ridges like on purpose... It did this all last summer. Constantly having to adjust upwards from the extended into the nearer middle range times; I don't see why it's not doing the same thing here.  Not a hugely noticeable aspect/bias (if proven to be so) in that model, but enough. No sooner does it generate a positive geopotential ridge interval like the others, it's always the first and most horny aggressive to beat the ridge right back down again.  We'll see..  But the EPS, the GEFs... the GFS-Para, hell, even the JMA ... models and means alike across the board, all show a 24 hour trend that in total, increases the warm anomaly region of the arc of the ridge as it rolls through Mon-Thursday. So the gist of the signal is in tact and if anything, stronger. 

Speaking of which, the Euro has +16 C during max heating, with dry cloud level RH and well mixed WSW wind next Tuesday.  That's going to be in the upper 80s regardless of whatever machine output it dims that synoptic signal with - which it probably will,  only show 82 or something.  Typical...    

Yeah. 80+ is looking more likely on tuesday. Plenty of time for us to muck it up though. Sping will spung next week. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Break out the BBQ's for Sunday. 

yeah that's a blue bird top 10 look there...  850s mature to + 6 C by 4 or 5 pm, with sun baked overturning of the BL mixing out any vestiges of ...well, 'winter'

Could be room-temperature on back yard decks and walks in the park and stuff.  Kevin's and Scott's napes will be heavily lubed up with tanning lotion - particularly the top of Kevin's dome.  In fact, rumor has it, ... the FAA uses that particular feature to blink off the top of T. Hill for low flyin' Cessna traffic...  I found that fascinating -

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah. 80+ is looking more likely on tuesday. Plenty of time for us to muck it up though. Sping will spung next week. 

Oh yeah (bold) ...

as Brian alludes, ... there's no indication of one now but, this is f'um April in New England so ...  the flow has to be pretty laminar in the 700 to 500 mb levels as it escapes east of the ST Lawrence/eastern Ontario for this to work out...  

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah that's blue bird top 10 look there...  850s mature to + 6 C by 4 or 5 pm, with sun baked overturning of the BL mixing out any vestiges of ...well, 'winter'

Could be room temperature on back yard decks and walks in the park.  Kevin's and Scott's napes will be heavily lubed up with tanning lotion - particularly the top of Kevin's dome.  In fact, rumor has it, ... the FAA uses that particular feature to blink off the top of T. Hill for low flyin' Cessnas traffic...  I found that fascinating -

Agreed. Away from the immediate coast looks like widespread potential for 60+, exlcuding northern NH and most of Maine. Sunday should be a real gem. We deserve it.

[dendrite]

MEX is hitting 70s now for Tue. Not bad for d7 MOS. 

[Damage In Tolland]

83-84 should be common at torch spots all over New England Tuesday with 70's Mon and Wed.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Agreed. Away from the immediate coast looks like widespread potential for 60+, exlcuding northern NH and most of Maine. Sunday should be a real gem. We deserve it.

Yeah... I suspect Sunday touches 70 actually... particularly those coastal exit locations that are flat like frying pans and have pretty much all of I-95 upwind - I don't see an onshore flow anywhere down in SNE, or even into the NH and lower Maine (with the exception of turning the breeze S'ward at PWM notwithstanding..) on Sunday.  Synoptic evolution of the surface +PP being S and anchored at dawn, the mixing momentum/vector is pointed about as offshore as it will ever get around here and as soon as any decoupling couples back up it's moving ESE.  Also, that's about as ideal a perfect heating scenario for April 9 as we're ever going to see, with zippo cloud deck RH and total sun/unabated blues.   So 850's start the day at 0 C but moderate to almost +6 by sundown...The whole day is a classic 4:30 pm high temperature look to it here where we pop maxes about 2 hours later than normal.  The day just has a giant diurnal swing vibe about it -

Than we have a much milder night Sunday night because unlike any fleeting 60 + days we've had down here so far, ...that warmth isn't bootlegged off super-adiabats where as soon as the sun kissed the tree line you're seeing your breath again.  It's a deep layer WSW flow established... Monday and Tuesday are are going to be sensibly impressive given to almost 0 antecedent acclimation to warm temperatures of any kind.  Kevin's actually right in this case that Tuesday would likely exceed MOS given that Euro look - 

I'm not buying the GFS for reasons lamented earlier.  That model just absolutely has to be parameterized on purpose NOT to have ridges in the latter middle and extended ranges - jesus drives one to distraction.  There's no support for it so if it pulls a coup, it pulls a coup.  It's just the anti heat model and did that all last summer, too. 

The only caveats that I see ... other than it being D5 + (ha!) is that this is BD season so... heh - Doesn't look it now but there's time. 

[dendrite]

I'll take the under on 70F. We're still saturated and some have rotting snow cover. 850s are around 0C Sun afternoon. I'll stick to low 60s for now unless the WAA ramps up quicker.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'll take the under on 70F. We're still saturated and some have rotting snow cover. 850s are around 0C Sun afternoon. I'll stick to low 60s for now unless the WAA ramps up quicker.

We talking Tuesday. CON may tickle 81

[SJonesWX]

i'll take the under on that 81 at CON

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'll take the under on 70F. We're still saturated and some have rotting snow cover. 850s are around 0C Sun afternoon. I'll stick to low 60s for now unless the WAA ramps up quicker.

It'll be interestingly ... tedious for some to care, but fun to monitor for others. 

I did mention areas farther N in deference to onshore vs offshore flow... but as far as the 70 question, I was actually speaking more specifically to SNE for that idea. I still see that day as being surprisingly mild - places last to exit benefiting the most...

The 00z Euro operational and most others too, all carried the same signal. The day dawns right around 0 C  at 850 mb, but that is of course irrelevant at the surface because most will be decoupled and pretty calm..  However, just off the deck ... the return continental flow is already transporting pretty rapidly warming 850 level temperatures, and that continues through the ensuing hours of the day. What starts out probably darn chilly in the typical climate decoupled locations... will likely experience large diurnal change given to time of year insolation forced mixing.

I could see a 27 F Orange mass all the way 65 by 4 or even 5 pm (late high scenario everywhere too).  While places like the walk across the parking complex at Burlington Mall and down toward Framingham and Brockton, Ma are 71 F  

By late afternoon the 850 mb level has soared to +7 to +4 from SW to NE ...even into S. NH and by that 4 to 6 pm period most have a breeze that is veered from NW to W to WSW by days end, through unabated high-ish sun zapping the Earth like the emitter in a microwave ove.  Such a wicked "intangible" super-adiabatic condition there 

Just remind folks...we made 70 F in February over a snow pack... This pattern coming is sort of whip-lashing jolting the region into a superb/rich warming potential like we have not really seen so it may be easier to negate its potential in lieu of white on the ground ...which ...you're also going to be losing that (btw) in gallons over the next couple of days.  I wouldn't be shocked if come Sunday those yards are down to patch work - but I could be totally off.. If you have 30" of grits iron hulled into earth like Greenland than obviously no --

All that said ... what's likely to happen is 66 everywhere, and though the concepts all above are clad and I think solid foresight, people and their pettiness would rather pin one's ears back, completely missing the point... we'll haha

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

i'll take the under on that 81 at CON

It's a little early to be ballsy, but I'm leaning over.

[dendrite]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It'll be interestingly ... tedious for some to care, but fun to monitor for others. 

I did mention areas farther N in deference to onshore vs offshore flow... but as far as the 70 question, I was actually speaking more specifically to SNE for that idea. I still see that day as being surprisingly mild - places last to exit benefiting the most...

The 00z Euro operational and most others too, all carried the same signal. The day dawns right around 0 C  at 850 mb, but that is of course irrelevant at the surface because most will be decoupled and pretty calm..  However, just off the deck ... the return continental flow is already transporting pretty rapidly warming 850 level temperatures, and that continues through the ensuing hours of the day. What starts out probably darn chilly in the typical climate decoupled locations... will likely experience large diurnal change given to time of year insolation forced mixing.

I could see a 27 F Orange mass all the way 65 by 4 or even 5 pm (late high scenario everywhere too).  While places like the walk across the parking complex at Burlington Mall and down toward Framingham and Brockton, Ma are 71 F  

By late afternoon the 850 mb level has soared to +7 to +4 from SW to NE ...even into S. NH and by that 4 to 6 pm period most have a breeze that is veered from NW to W to WSW by days end, through unabated high-ish sun zapping the Earth like the emitter in a microwave ove.  Such a wicked "intangible" super-adiabatic condition there 

Just remind folks...we made 70 F in February over a snow pack... This pattern coming is sort of whip-lashing jolting the region into a superb/rich warming potential like we have not really seen so it may be easier to negate its potential in lieu of white on the ground ...which ...you're also going to be losing that (btw) in gallons over the next couple of days.  I wouldn't be shocked if come Sunday those yards are down to patch work - but I could be totally off.. If you have 30" of grits iron hulled into earth like Greenland than obviously no --

All that said ... what's likely to happen is 66 everywhere, and though the concepts all above are clad and I think solid foresight, people and their pettiness would rather pin one's ears back, completely missing the point... we'll haha

I agree there will be a late push Sunday...one of those 21Z high deals. I'll buy your 65-66F in the warm spots.