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Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem VII

1,335 posts in this topic

What an insane map for April 3.  Even if its tainted, still pretty insane.  I was all set to get my car and winter wheels washed today  to do the annual switchover to summer meats, having fully resigned myself to the fact that with the dwindling vestiges of snow banks on the wane, its time...  But then I woke up and peered at the BOX long range discussion and I almost flipped.  I know snow maps are snow maps, but if thats not a mid winter GFS snow/sleet map, I dont know what is.  I'll probably switch over to the summer wheels today anyway, forecast not withstanding.. If there's a sure way to bring the goods, thats it!

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2 hours ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

What an insane map for April 3.  Even if its tainted, still pretty insane.  I was all set to get my car and winter wheels washed today  to do the annual switchover to summer meats, having fully resigned myself to the fact that with the dwindling vestiges of snow banks on the wane, its time...  But then I woke up and peered at the BOX long range discussion and I almost flipped.  I know snow maps are snow maps, but if thats not a mid winter GFS snow/sleet map, I dont know what is.  I'll probably switch over to the summer wheels today anyway, forecast not withstanding.. If there's a sure way to bring the goods, thats it!

accuracy of those products aside ...concur - 

I mentioned yesterday, ...replete with my usual flair for embedding irrelevant metaphors ... that this is a winter pattern we are in. 

The "seasonal change" aspect of this calendar time of the year, this particular go of it, ...is failing, badly.  It's really quite remarkable actually just how wrong it is - interesting.

There's actually a parade of the blue snow chances on the various models...  Right out through day 10...there's like three, the last of which on the 00z guidance hinted at more than merely nuisance too (toward the end of the first week of April or just beyond).

That's really pushing it though... We've had snows all the way to mid May around here, true. Though rare, one thing that almost all of them have in common is that they top-heavy the elevations; they snow cap those like white-Russian Ushanka hats, while the valleys tend to cat-paw their way to silvery slush on car-tops and hand rails.  So... April 7 to 9...heh... 

Either way, these are "Farmer's Gold" as the old adage in the Midwest goes.  

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man...even slower this time...this thing is crawling....

mmm we've sans the incredible gradient that plagued the winter ..

That's why.  

 

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm we've sans the incredible gradient that plagued the winter ..

That's why.  

 

You did a great job pumping point that home all season.

I gleaned one of my cardinal rules of forecasting from you years ago....be leery of a huge solution (1"+) when the 582dm resides at or about the latitude of Miami at or around crucial intervals of time...even preceding a ways.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You did a great job pumping point that home all season.

I gleaned one of my cardinal rules of forecasting from you years ago....be leery of a huge solution (1"+) when the 582dm resides at or about the latitude of Miami at or around crucial intervals of time...even preceding a ways.

you know and it seems to work pretty well ... things have a funny way of "going wrong" in idiosyncratic annoyances that "aren't really forecast to do so" when that isopleth cuts through N. of MIA.  

Not every time...of course. The detractors seem to argue in absolutes and don't understand the intrinsic gradation of offsetting factors... Like it's yes or no, but unfortunately ... events don't work out that way in the atmosphere. 

It's like ... a weak system absolutely gets demolished/sheared by a compressed height field, where a very powerful one stays in tact, but may incur the idiosyncratic erosion...  

The simple explanation is that the flow can't be too fast.  Particularly in phasing... There is probably some magic ratio that can be determined, where the subsume rate of the whole trough/phase can't be 3 times slower than the speed of the flow or your fooked...  (speaking hypothetically).

In any case, ...this time we 'flirt' with high-ish heights down there, but the key is that the N/ stream isn't already pressing S and squeezing the hell out of the flow and causing things to move too fast prior to this thing coming through the flow. 

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SOS next week on the GFS. 

 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another wintry threat next week too

Hmmmmm.....

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another wintry threat next week too

CMC has a nice firehose the weekend after next.

Gonna go out on a limb and say, nah.

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