Damage In Tolland Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's true but I certainly am not counting on 70s and 80s Well I hope no-one is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well I hope no-one is How many pecks could a woodpecker peck if a woodpecker could peck wood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one wants anymore cold nasty wx. That season is behind us. It's now tans, shorts, lawns, warmth ,installs Well yeah, but that doesn't mean every model run is going to show what you want. Forecasting and model discussion has nothing to do with what you want and more to do with what the models actually show. Though why would someone forecast weather they don't want? But if someone says model XYZ is showing 42F and rain, I doubt that means they want that haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's not cold and miserable. That's bearable It's just nice to have the lawn raked , cleaned , and blown, mulch turned over in beds, woodpecker holes in siding filled and painted, couple of thin spots reseeded, fert and lime dropped , deck powerwashed and outdoor furniture out.. watching the greenup explode before our eyes. Hopefully it's just 60's and not 42 and NE flow with rain I do agree with your bolded quite violently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 Personally, I want regular shots of rain through the summer. Our golf course has been told we have to limit the amount of water from the river for irrigation so I want no part of droughtiness again this summer. Disclaimer - this does not mean I am wishing for days of 40's and misery mist, just nice gentle, warm showers on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 Shorts for the easter bunny Sunday? Keep that low way up in NNE please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Shorts for the easter bunny Sunday? Keep that low way up in NNE please. I like our chances. Saturday at least looks like a slam dunk for another gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 Severe threat Sunday as dresses and bonnets go airborne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Severe threat Sunday as dresses and bonnets go airborne Aunt Edith go braless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Severe threat Sunday as dresses and bonnets go airborne Sorry not seeing it. What's the mechanism driving severe tstorms in New England in early April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Shorts for the easter bunny Sunday? Keep that low way up in NNE please. I think we can thread the needle Sunday. Looks like we get the weak wave to move through to our north Sunday AM and we get clearing with a nice rebound warmup Sunday afternoon, and the fropa holds off until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Sorry not seeing it. What's the mechanism driving severe tstorms in New England in early April? Warm sector and dews in SNE with sun first part of day.. not up where you are no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2017 Author Share Posted April 11, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: I like our chances. Saturday at least looks like a slam dunk for another gem. The Euro (...and to more than less extent the other guidance hint) offers up a two-day evolution that looks remarkably similar to this last Sunday into yesterday - in my opinion. Saturday dawns with a rich morning sun tsunamis pouring over the horizon, as high pressure drifts S of the area ...gradually transitioning the air mass into an offshore component from the surface on up. The 850 mb thermal layout starts the day around -2 C, but ends around +5 to +2 from SW to NE toward 00z, Sunday. That smacks as a late high again ... Sunday? Forget it. That is in a deep continental barotropic region on this Euro run, period. This model has consistent with a trend to make that appeal more obvious over the last several cycles.. Last night has a diffused warm boundary rocketing through the area overnight, Saturday... Sunday ends up with unabated W wind under +12 (to +15C as we get close ...most likely) at 850, with superb heating/mixing potential... Should be 85 under that ... There is limited chance any machine-based MOS products that have sloped climo factoring would pick up on a shot of heat like that. Brian's right tho. Despite the trend above... there's time to correct that low south and the whole of the synoptic structure with less eastern heights...Should that occur, as is typically the contingency of April/May ... boundaries can mean 30 F across 50 miles. Personally I don't think it will tho - I sense that we are getting into what I thought would happen when I opined about this matter back in December/January.. how the southern height wall may balloon prematurely as we head toward spring. That relay was obviously not smooth and did not work out too well in March...But, I see the warm spell in latter February as related, actually... and once the March thing moved off, we see that the heights in the deep south and SE have been popping anomalously by + 2 to 6 DM at nadirs to a bit more positive when it's flexed. You can clearly see this behavior at larger scales in my mind.. No sooner than do these S/W move off the 45th by 100W region of the flow... we end up with a kind of rest state -PNAP. Anyway, it's a bit hypothetical/operational conjecture, but still I could see us in a kind of 2 to 3 day above by 1 to 1.5 day negative oscillation just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Actually I have and good luck with that working out. It should stay + http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Every neg forecast since Feb has verified neutral or pos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Warm sector and dews in SNE with sun first part of day.. not up where you are no Not going to get air mass severe t storms anywhere in NE with that air mass in place. Keep in mind it's early April. Don't have the CAPE. Isolated strong maybe; severe no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2017 Author Share Posted April 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Every neg forecast since Feb has verified neutral or pos. also the application of the AO on one's location over the contiguous might be less useful then the EPO and NAO. those later domains spaces overlap the mid latitudes and are easily shown to be more correlated with the temperature anomaly distribution over regions lower than then ~ the 45th parallel. -AO can 'dump' cold loads into Eurasia and North America doesn't even get into it at times. And reverse... for that matter. The -AO is more important for us if it coincides with a some -EPO and/or -NAO phase. If the -AO gets overwhelming, it will enhances those regions and drive them negative - I am not sure that depiction is of sufficient magnitude to enforce the middle and lower EPO and NAO teleconnectors into a cold delivery. There's also spread there... some of those members are not that negative, with a "splayed" curve indicating less skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2017 Author Share Posted April 11, 2017 CDC numbers would be encouraging for cold enthusiasts... But, we have to remember (duh); you're not likely getting snow out of that... Just schit weather - so if your egging that sort of thing on, careful what you wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 Speaking of severe-flew BOS-ORD yesterday. Worst turbulence I've experienced on a plane in over 20 years I'd say. Two attempts to land aborted 100 feet above the ground due to cells moving in at the last minute until the pilot found an opening 30 minutes later. Was bouncing from western NY all the way in. Awful! Hey at least they didn't drag me off the plane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Speaking of severe-flew BOS-ORD yesterday. Worst turbulence I've experienced on a plane in over 20 years I'd say. Two attempts to land aborted 100 feet above the ground due to cells moving in at the last minute until the pilot found an opening 30 minutes later. Was bouncing from western NY all the way in. Awful! Hey at least they didn't drag me off the plane! Congrats!! Always wanted to feel that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats!! Always wanted to feel that. What, being dragged off a plane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, mreaves said: What, being dragged off a plane? Fly the Friendly Skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 9 hours ago, mreaves said: What, being dragged off a plane? Bounced around by turbulence and then dragged off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Bounced around by turbulence and then dragged off. As I'm boarding my return to Boston last night on you u guessed it-united-they start giving me crap about my minuscule carry ons saying the overheads were full. I basically said they'd fit under the seat but of course there was plenty of room above. Good bye UAL-too many other options... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 43 minutes ago, weathafella said: As I'm boarding my return to Boston last night on you u guessed it-united-they start giving me crap about my minuscule carry ons saying the overheads were full. I basically said they'd fit under the seat but of course there was plenty of room above. Good bye UAL-too many other options... They are the worst. What a PR disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They are the worst. What a PR disaster. Hey....it's in their policy that you may be booted from the flight. It's not right, and they shouldn't be allowed to do it, but it's in there. Plus this doctor is a felon, so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 24 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Hey....it's in their policy that you may be booted from the flight. It's not right, and they shouldn't be allowed to do it, but it's in there. Plus this doctor is a felon, so whatever. The list goes on and on with United. They always have something to sink to a new low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 44 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Hey....it's in their policy that you may be booted from the flight. It's not right, and they shouldn't be allowed to do it, but it's in there. Plus this doctor is a felon, so whatever. Maybe he deserves to be roughed up, but it doesn't make what United did any better. Hopefully every booted customer milks them for the max now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 53 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Hey....it's in their policy that you may be booted from the flight. It's not right, and they shouldn't be allowed to do it, but it's in there. Plus this doctor is a felon, so whatever. What the hell does that have to do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 1 hour ago, mreaves said: What the hell does that have to do with it? People get what's coming to them....that's all I'm saying. Unitied is wrong too, greedy corporation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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