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Model Mayhem VII

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats next weekend in the interior on the euro. 

Yeah I was just remarking on that ...  You beat me to it - 

That carving S/W has actually been in the guidance' pretty pervasively for about two and half day's worth of cycles. If one were to cave to that consistency ...it  may be a safe bet at this point that impulse is real. The question is, in what 'exact' form - obviously. 

We know this, but getting snow to occur at this time of year doesn't have a lot of wiggle room. Having said that, it is still just April 8th ... This last week between now and about the 15th or even hand-wobbling 20th or so, is still fair game when considering the longer term statistical return rates for snowing in the first halves of Aprils.  I'm not going to argue as though it's 'unlikely' because that's not true in the numbers.  We prrrobbbably should remain vigil of that as we trek through a pretty fantastic week of warm departures, we are merely differentiating toward lowering probabilities, but said probability doesn't really become negligible until later on. It's a logorithmic decaying probability curve, not one that ends on some particular date.    

More specifically from climate inference, the 00z GFS was like ...standing on the threshold between liquid and frozen while doing what it's done all year managing to do both snow in the elevations and white rain below.  The 06z GFS turns around and backs off again...  

The thing is, I can see reasons to go either way, either Euro-esque 00z or GFS-esque 06z.  

For example, the Euro tends to over amplify features beyond D 5 ... as a standard on-going bias. I have noticed that it still takes seemingly innocuous waves and somehow engineers them to subtly gain total manifold of mechanical strength, ...with no apparent physical means for doing so either. 

The GFS on the other had tends to flatten ridges too much in that same post day 5 time ranges.. which could lend to more trough amplitude, and slowing down spacial-temporally.  

Neither of these biases are glaringly obvious though?  They are almost only seen in the 'panache' of the product ...hell, call it attitude.  Sometimes they are more evident.. This time appears to be one where the Euro might be over doing the amplitude some.  

The time of the year means the flow should be slowing down and the wave lengths over all beginning to shrink down.  That sort of lends to the Euro idea; perhaps off-setting the above arguments.  

I mean .. the list goes on and on... 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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May come back ... but, climatology (obviously) dictates the probabilities are falling, daily..  

I suspect though that is nothing more than a standard spring fropa associated with the westerlies, in a pattern that sort of is against cut offs as the week goes forward - at least across the span of the contiguous U.S..   

Still looks like this immediate next two or three days is that herald, that symbolically jests we turn the page.  The next fronts or series of fronts probably don't transport that same scale of misery on their backsides...  

Of course that's relative to this pattern.  In the non-symbolic sense, we can have cut-offs and misery right to June 1! ...hopefully not.  As far as terms of snow I think we're done below summits. 

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weathafella

weathafella

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May come back ... but, climatology (obviously) dictates the probabilities are falling, daily..  

I suspect though that is nothing more than a standard spring fropa associated with the westerlies, in a pattern that sort of is against cut offs as the week goes forward - at least across the span of the contiguous U.S..   

Still looks like this immediate next two or three days is that herald, that symbolically jests we turn the page.  The next fronts or series of fronts probably don't transport that same scale of misery on their backsides...  

Of course that's relative to this pattern.  In the non-symbolic sense, we can have cut-offs and misery right to June 1! ...hopefully not.  As far as terms of snow I think we're done below summits. 

Was it 2005 that we had 40s and rain/drizzle over Memorial Day weekend?

 

i am sure that 2005 brought us 50s and misery for a week in June!

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dendrite

dendrite

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Was it 2005 that we had 40s and rain/drizzle over Memorial Day weekend?

 

i am sure that 2005 brought us 50s and misery for a week in June!

Didn't BOS start June a couple of years ago with 2 straight highs in the 40s? Maybe it was ORH.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Was it 2005 that we had 40s and rain/drizzle over Memorial Day weekend?

 

i am sure that 2005 brought us 50s and misery for a week in June!

 

Yeahed, that was a doozy... Perhaps the dooziest doozy that ever doozied for that matter. 

That actually kicked in around the 10th of that month that year.  The entire duration featured three distinct 'accelerations' of wind and rain that were nested amid a solid three weeks where I don't recall ever seeing the sun, and there was persistent delay-wiper-spray. It was ...shockingly bad actually. 

There were several days in the midst of it where, as you intimate correctly, the temperature rarely exceed 45 F by day.  However, I am not sure the month really came in all that negative in total temperature anomalies because the first week turned decent if I recall, where the succeeding nights stayed about the same temperatures of as the daylight hours during the marathon stretch - such that the dailies may not have averaged like hiding the crime.       

Two of those acceleration periods mentioned were pretty fierce Nor Easters actually, with some tree limb damage around town (Acton).  Wind swept rains through timbre cracking sounds from time to time, at 44 F, circa May 17th. I think Will mentioned a while ago that some places in the Worcester highlands may have sleet and/or even 'pawed in one of them, too.  Nor Easter eased off ... mist persisted, new Nor'easter comes rolling on in a couple days later, rinse repeat right to June 1... It just was an unrelenting, unredeemng three week long eternity.  Never quite experienced anything quit as deeply penetratingly horrible before or since as a New England citizen. 

The synoptic evolution was interesting - perhaps that's the redemption?  Initially, a wave got stranded and generated the first in the series of Nor'easters, sometime between the 10th and 15th, and stalled... The cut-off and the associated coastal collocated/captured and started to move out, but... the N-stream dropped another impulse through the Lakes that sliced into the backside of the deep layer circulation and effectively pulled it back W and S ...where it thus re-deepened and re-energized a new coastal reflection.  That same process happened yet a third time around the 25th of the month and took three days to spin down.  Finally, as the month turned the page into June the whole synopsis broke... 

In fact, we ridged out by the 5th and temperature abruptly soared to 94/75 type stuff for a couple of days... The whole of the landscape radiated in a green hue that would make a old Irish farm hand envious -

I remember at some point I had given up maintaining any illusion that conditions would EVER improve. I just figured that was our eternal plight in life, ... and that some sort of Terran event must have transpired like a geologic epoch - ...wow.   Yeah, and I admit... wondering if that sort of pattern ever set up in February did accompany my misery at times - that would have been 60 or 70 " of total snow in three violent Nor'easter, with constant snow in the air in between.   2015 may come close, but that was different. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Heh that period sucked. BOS had 1 June max in the 40s before that (49F in1945) and then they tag 2 in back-to-back days.

Yeah I think both BOS and ORH started that month off with back to back record low maxes. Doesn't get much worse in June. If I recall correctly we had a really nasty day too near the end of that month. Obviously not 40s but it was something like 55 and rain all day which is getting pretty dire by the time we are talking about almost July. It would be kind of meh for May but not late June. We had a few days like that in 2009 too in late June and early July. I think 2009 is where BOS set their record cold June too on monthly avg temp. 

I'd take a normal June this year. Normal is usually 70s for highs with maybe some larger diurnal swing 80s mixed in. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The AO has very little correlation to our temps anyway by now...it's something like 0.1. The NAO is a bit more useful, but still less than the peak winter months.

 

The EC ensembles were def chilly in the 11-15...GEFS not so much. But this time of year you can still get 55-60 degrees with chilly 850 temps if you keep a westerly and northwest flow. It is often all about backdoor fronts and onshore flow this time of year and those are very difficult to predict more than a few days out.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Then you woke up. Lol it is April 10th not May 10th.  55 to 65 for days and days 

That's not cold and miserable. That's bearable 

It's just nice to have the lawn raked , cleaned , and blown, mulch turned over in beds, woodpecker holes in siding filled and painted, couple of thin spots reseeded, fert and lime dropped , deck powerwashed and outdoor furniture out.. watching the greenup explode before our eyes. Hopefully it's just 60's and not 42 and NE flow with rain 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That's not cold and miserable. That's bearable 

It's just nice to have the lawn raked , cleaned , and blown, mulch turned over in beds, woodpecker holes in siding filled and painted, couple of thin spots reseeded, fert and lime dropped .. watching the greenup explode before our eyes. Hopefully it's just 60's and not 42 and NE flow with rain 

That's true but I certainly am not counting on 70s and 80s

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