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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, tamarack said:

Have not been thrilled with mid-540s thicknesses on GFS - significant mix'n'mess for all but the mountains?  (Or am I missing the important factors?)

I wouldn't worry about 500-1000 thicknesses with this. 700-850mb are way above normal but still supportive of snow...especially up your way. This is one of those situations where it will be snowing in spots with thicknesses around 546dm.

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Just now, dendrite said:

heh...the NAM cooled off here. That first batch early tomorrow morning is mostly snow.

Yes, It cooled a few tics from 06z this run, looks like it may remain mostly snow here now unless there is a warm layer between 700 and 850 mb that i have not checked a sounding yet.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, It cooled a few tics from 06z this run, looks like it may remain mostly snow here now unless there is a warm layer between 700 and 850 mb that i have not checked a sounding yet.

There is. It has you close to the sleet line 00z tomorrow, but then it cools a tick at H75 after that. It's damn close, but mostly snow.

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm certainly not an expert and can only broad brush what the models are saying but it does look pretty interesting for me for at least something.  Maybe one of those events where I get a paste job up on the hill while most everyone else gets rain or a non accumulating mix?   

I think longitude actually hurts. Might be something where you are ZR or IP and KIZG is snow even at lower elevation. You certainly could get wintry precip though.

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Yea I'd def be hedging colder in southwest Maine and NE NH, particularly with all that snow cover....That warm sector of the primary is going to hit a wall near the lakes region and force redevelopment earlier off the coast. 1000 mb low in northern NYS doesn't stand a chance...

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I know this is different than a surface cold air damning situation up here.  If I followed that rule the warm air gets into the Sunapee and Lebanon NH area but stops short about 25 miles southwest of me where the Cardigan range is.  Just seems like everything drains in from the NE in my hood. The snow two days ago was a 30F fairly dry snow.  We have not had a 33F birch bender snow in awhile.  Maybe tomorrow AM will be it?   Sure will be interesting what happens tomorrow.  Maybe this is it for us?

My location is just a hair SW of the 8 in the 7.8 figure in the map above...

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I wouldn't worry about 500-1000 thicknesses with this. 700-850mb are way above normal but still supportive of snow...especially up your way. This is one of those situations where it will be snowing in spots with thicknesses around 546dm.

Good (weenie) news, and thanks for the clarification.  Always good to learn something new.

please stop the snow now.

Nah.  If you could pull a 10-spot from this one (quite unlikely), you would have more snow this season than I've ever measured when not in Fort Kent.  ;)

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Good luck man!  Hey if it's going to snow might as well enjoy it.



Looking at GYX latest map, I guess they don't think it's snowing at all here and dropped all headlines which has me scratching my head as nothing has changed on models today that would give that indication from the last couple days... :(
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