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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

What an insane map for April 3.  Even if its tainted, still pretty insane.  I was all set to get my car and winter wheels washed today  to do the annual switchover to summer meats, having fully resigned myself to the fact that with the dwindling vestiges of snow banks on the wane, its time...  But then I woke up and peered at the BOX long range discussion and I almost flipped.  I know snow maps are snow maps, but if thats not a mid winter GFS snow/sleet map, I dont know what is.  I'll probably switch over to the summer wheels today anyway, forecast not withstanding.. If there's a sure way to bring the goods, thats it!

accuracy of those products aside ...concur - 

I mentioned yesterday, ...replete with my usual flair for embedding irrelevant metaphors ... that this is a winter pattern we are in. 

The "seasonal change" aspect of this calendar time of the year, this particular go of it, ...is failing, badly.  It's really quite remarkable actually just how wrong it is - interesting.

There's actually a parade of the blue snow chances on the various models...  Right out through day 10...there's like three, the last of which on the 00z guidance hinted at more than merely nuisance too (toward the end of the first week of April or just beyond).

That's really pushing it though... We've had snows all the way to mid May around here, true. Though rare, one thing that almost all of them have in common is that they top-heavy the elevations; they snow cap those like white-Russian Ushanka hats, while the valleys tend to cat-paw their way to silvery slush on car-tops and hand rails.  So... April 7 to 9...heh... 

Either way, these are "Farmer's Gold" as the old adage in the Midwest goes.  

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm we've sans the incredible gradient that plagued the winter ..

That's why.  

 

You did a great job pumping point that home all season.

I gleaned one of my cardinal rules of forecasting from you years ago....be leery of a huge solution (1"+) when the 582dm resides at or about the latitude of Miami at or around crucial intervals of time...even preceding a ways.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You did a great job pumping point that home all season.

I gleaned one of my cardinal rules of forecasting from you years ago....be leery of a huge solution (1"+) when the 582dm resides at or about the latitude of Miami at or around crucial intervals of time...even preceding a ways.

you know and it seems to work pretty well ... things have a funny way of "going wrong" in idiosyncratic annoyances that "aren't really forecast to do so" when that isopleth cuts through N. of MIA.  

Not every time...of course. The detractors seem to argue in absolutes and don't understand the intrinsic gradation of offsetting factors... Like it's yes or no, but unfortunately ... events don't work out that way in the atmosphere. 

It's like ... a weak system absolutely gets demolished/sheared by a compressed height field, where a very powerful one stays in tact, but may incur the idiosyncratic erosion...  

The simple explanation is that the flow can't be too fast.  Particularly in phasing... There is probably some magic ratio that can be determined, where the subsume rate of the whole trough/phase can't be 3 times slower than the speed of the flow or your fooked...  (speaking hypothetically).

In any case, ...this time we 'flirt' with high-ish heights down there, but the key is that the N/ stream isn't already pressing S and squeezing the hell out of the flow and causing things to move too fast prior to this thing coming through the flow. 

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It's an interesting series off the 12z this morning ... 

Most guidance and ensembles means therein I've seen offer up two distinct storm periods - as other's have noted, the first being mid week, but then perhaps a much more full latitude amplification of some form about 3 or so days later.   After that beast ...that could be it -

That latter one appears to trigger some sort of Rosby roll-back ... Most guidance suggest after which, the pattern significantly changes and heralds a pretty significant warm intrusion into the OV ... That may be a first post equinox warm up of note if not the exit switch ...  

 

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's an interesting series off the 12z this morning ... 

Most guidance and ensembles means therein I've seen offer up two distinct storm periods - as other's have noted, the first being mid week, but then perhaps a much more full latitude amplification of some form about 3 or so days later.   After that beast ...that could be it -

That latter one appears to trigger some sort of Rosby roll-back ... Most guidance suggest after which, the pattern significantly changes and heralds a pretty significant warm intrusion into the OV ... That may be a first post equinox warm up of note if not the exit switch ...  

 

yeah...at some point we have to flip the switch....but not the for next week at least it seems.  My hope is it's kinda wintry then goes bam and we flip to low 60s and Peter Gabriel echoing out of half opened windows on Buick Skylarks.

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yeah...at some point we have to flip the switch....but not the for next week at least it seems.  My hope is it's kinda wintry then goes bam and we flip to low 60s and Peter Gabriel echoing out of half opened windows on Buick Skylarks.




We are now one month from Wiz beloved May 1 !!!

After next week burly men in Skylarks with hairy arms hanging out of the windows ?

Do we get another sleet b1atch day on Tuesday ??
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17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's an interesting series off the 12z this morning ... 

Most guidance and ensembles means therein I've seen offer up two distinct storm periods - as other's have noted, the first being mid week, but then perhaps a much more full latitude amplification of some form about 3 or so days later.   After that beast ...that could be it -

That latter one appears to trigger some sort of Rosby roll-back ... Most guidance suggest after which, the pattern significantly changes and heralds a pretty significant warm intrusion into the OV ... That may be a first post equinox warm up of note if not the exit switch ...  

 

I would be happy with this, even though my area may not benefit in either of the systems mentioned by Tip.  Just something wintry to watch for a week or more, even if it does not directly affect my area.  This just delays (and hopefully shortens) the talk of crappy spring backdoors, and the impending blackfly season.

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If you are one of the rarefied ilk that patrons this forum, that derives satisfaction and joy from serene Spring days ..the latter middle and extended range operational Euro off this 12z run this morning takes you through a classic New England butt f'ing with remarkable clarity...

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you are one of the rarefied ilk that patrons this forum, that derives satisfaction and joy from serene Spring days ..the latter middle and extended range operational Euro off this 12z run this morning takes you through a classic New England butt f'ing with remarkable clarity...

 

Yup. And if we have the big d6/7 cutoff in the works, might as well try to our best to get it underneath us. Spring is not coming anytime soon so its pointless at this stage beg for it, Ive given up on that.

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. And if we have the big d6/7 cutoff in the works, might as well try to our best to get it underneath us. Spring is not coming anytime soon so its pointless at this stage beg for it, Ive given up on that.

mmm.  No, if that goes underneath you got 43 F strata rains and mist for 3 days...

and that's the point, why it's killer look.   that thing rattling around aloft taking a week to fill in does nothing for the spring enthusiasts.  hope ur thinking ur not cashing in on snow from that going underneath cuz that ain't happen with a rotted maxer after April 1. whatever - to each his own

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm.  No, if that goes underneath you got 43 F strata rains and mist for 3 days...

and that's the point, why it's killer look.   that thing rattling around aloft taking a week to fill in does nothing for the spring enthusiasts.  hope ur thinking ur not cashing in on snow from that going underneath cuz that ain't happen with a rotted maxer after April 1. whatever - to each his own

Nah, just go underneath make it interesting of windy rain and hopefully give the northern resorts the snow. I could use one last pow day or two.

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah, just go underneath make it interesting of windy rain and hopefully give the northern resorts the snow. I could use one last pow day or two.

i guess if one where being a purist/responsible about matters, it would be nice to finally put this drought bs to bed...   

Heh. you know it's ironic?  ... if all the systems since xmass had lived up to modeled QPF it seems like we'd have to be building arks.  it seems frequency of corrective opportunities hasn't been the problem - it's getting the opportunities to do more than under performing pieces of schit 

 

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The rain this week will be a mess. We have old snow remaining from the entire winter, a lot of snow remaining from 3/14, well over an inch of liquid in the pack from yesterday, and the ground is already saturated. The only saving grace is that it should be cold rains. 

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