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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some intense lift on that. I kind of bet we Tippy Isothermal in many spots on that run. Blue bomb for even Kev.

It's also still like 3-4 days out...so highly doubtful the Euro solution verifies verbatim...could def see a tick colder (or warmer).

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Tough call on QPF ...

On one hand ... the numbers appear a bit high for the scale of mechanical look of this thing as a low to mid-grade S/W magnitude.  That in its self has an additional layer of contention...in that it's riding up and over a ridge - 

Another more intangible on that is that the models can also overdo it a bit because in March/April systems get a diabatic boost and models may be tapping into that too much.  ...but that's speculative..  I could see this verifying 3/4th those totals and still being a good solid spring blue event where it snows. 

At this point, it's inside of D4.5 in a tool that boasts some pretty inarguable verification scores... I don't have a problem with at least smacking spring enthusiast's faces (haha)...getting something to happen here.   I think that hand of misery has already flown...  But how exactly the whack is delivered is debatable, be it a p'ode GF or an out and out bar brawl ...  Obviously, those in here want the brawl...  

 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tough call on QPF ...

On one hand ... the numbers appear a bit high for the scale of mechanical look of this thing as a low to mid-grade S/W magnitude.  That in its self has an additional layer of contention...in that it's riding up and over a ridge - 

Another more intangible on that is that the models can also overdo it a bit because in March/April systems get a diabatic boost and models may be tapping into that too much.  ...but that's speculative..  I could see this verifying 3/4th those totals and still being a good solid spring blue event where it snows. 

At this point, it's inside of D4.5 in a tool that boasts some pretty inarguable verification scores... I don't have a problem with at least smacking spring enthusiast's faces (haha)...getting something to happen here.   I think that hand of misery has already flown...  But how exactly the whack is delivered is debatable, be it a p'ode GF or an out and out bar brawl ...  Obviously, those in here want the brawl...  

 

Helluva 850 inflow

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BOX starting to sniff it out

Expect precip to overspread SNE from west to east after midnight Thu
night to daybreak Friday. With strong high pres to NE the column
will be sufficiently cold for most areas to begin as snow. However,
due to marginal boundary layer temps snow may mix or even change to
rain at times when precip intensity is light, especially near the
coastal plain. During heavier periods, the precip will likely be
snow given cold temps aloft. Minor accum are possible all the way to
the coastal plain but any accum during the day will be confined to
colder surfaces with most roads remaining wet. Exception is across
higher elevations in interior MA and northern CT where colder temps
may result in some accum on roadways.
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For those who like H5..check out the differences in the srn stream system at hr 90 on the 18z GFS vs hr 96 on the 12z GFS. Look at how much stronger and more organized that is compared to 12z. Now look at the QPF/MSLP stuff at the same time. Look how well defined the low is on the 18z GFS. That's what Will and I were saying regarding a much more concentric and organized low with a nice CCB. I like seeing that. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For those who like H5..check out the differences in the srn stream system at hr 90 on the 18z GFS vs hr 96 on the 12z GFS. Look at how much stronger and more organized that is compared to 12z. Now look at the QPF/MSLP stuff at the same time. Look how well defined the low is on the 18z GFS. That's what Will and I were saying regarding a much more concentric and organized low with a nice CCB. I like seeing that. 

Night and day difference @ H5, More consolidated and closed, It looked more like the 12z Euro this 18z run

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For those who like H5..check out the differences in the srn stream system at hr 90 on the 18z GFS vs hr 96 on the 12z GFS. Look at how much stronger and more organized that is compared to 12z. Now look at the QPF/MSLP stuff at the same time. Look how well defined the low is on the 18z GFS. That's what Will and I were saying regarding a much more concentric and organized low with a nice CCB. I like seeing that. 

Is that what we as a region in SNE want?

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that what we as a region in SNE want?

Well anybody who is in the precip shield wants that this time of year. It still borderline at 850, but if you can develop a good CCB, you have a better chance flashing over to snow, especially if the lower levels are cold enough. If this were to be something where it develops rapidly south of SNE, you would have a better shot in CT of not torching 850 so much.

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