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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We don't call him Colonel Cold for no reason!! No matter where..no matter how...he swoops in to save the day. Whenever a storm is being played down, whenever the talk of cold is being muted...he is here to save the day. GGW.

Funny stuff ,Kevin was saying the opposite yesterday, better get on the same page, Mr King of Monday morning QBs. Typical Scott forecast.  6 ZI like the look, 12 Z I don't like the look, 18Z looks good, 0Z Flags everywhere 06 Z looks great. Day after verification Hey I told you so

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Funny stuff ,Kevin was saying the opposite yesterday, better get on the same page, Mr King of Monday morning QBs. Typical Scott forecast.  6 ZI like the look, 12 Z I don't like the look, 18Z looks good, 0Z Flags everywhere 06 Z looks great. Day after verification Hey I told you so

That deserves a :weenie:

 

Anyways, Canadian a little milder than 00z...but a pasting north of Pike.

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What is the thinking on this one accumulating on roads in lower elevations?  I'm wondering if this will be similar to the storm a few weeks ago that accumulated several inches on grassy surfaces but left roads mostly wet.

On the one hand, we have we have marginal temperatures and an even higher sun angle.  On the other, we have somewhat lower antecedent temperatures and possibly more intense snowfall rates.

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1 minute ago, sankaty said:

What is the thinking on this one accumulating on roads in lower elevations?  I'm wondering if this will be similar to the storm a few weeks ago that accumulated several inches on grassy surfaces but left roads mostly wet.

On the one hand, we have we have marginal temperatures and an even higher sun angle.  On the other, we have somewhat lower antecedent temperatures and possibly more intense snowfall rates.

A lot will depend on when it moves in...it could move in early in the morning which would favor some road stickage.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That deserves a :weenie:

 

Anyways, Canadian a little milder than 00z...but a pasting north of Pike.

You have been taking potshots at me for the last two weeks, don't know why but it  is your turn. Sorry for your complete meltdown. Your concern about NNE baseball season was one of the best. Almost time for you to get a April Fools hardo for an event 20 years ago when you were knee high to a grasshopper.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Start time was earlier on euro?

Not really...Euro was morning it looked like...but it was also the ugliest of any model at 00z...ironically after being the best looking model at 12z yesterday. It was kind of disorganized at 00z with the leading area of lift. It could change again at 12z...we'll find out in a little over an hour.

 

The Ukie looked good again at 12z.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That deserves a :weenie:

 

Anyways, Canadian a little milder than 00z...but a pasting north of Pike.

I know it is more complicated than this but a general guidline would be to look at h85 temps? I have a chart on my desktop but when im checking tropicaltidbits on mobile a quick way is 850 id assume. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know it is more complicated than this but a general guidline would be to look at h85 temps? I have a chart on my desktop but when im checking tropicaltidbits on mobile a quick way is 850 id assume. 

Yeah that's fine...esp in this setup. The warmest layer seems to be close to H85 in this one. Sometimes you'll get the warmest layer more like 750-800 in stronger SWFEs, but not in this one (at least as modeled right now).

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HIT. 

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You have been taking potshots at me for the last two weeks, don't know why but it  is your turn. Sorry for your complete meltdown. Your concern about NNE baseball season was one of the best. Almost time for you to get a April Fools hardo for an event 20 years ago when you were knee high to a grasshopper.

They were legit questions. Tough to be a HS kid there. 

 

Anyways, yes it's almost that time. Champagne to be popped Friday night.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's fine...esp in this setup. The warmest layer seems to be close to H85 in this one. Sometimes you'll get the warmest layer more like 750-800 in stronger SWFEs, but not in this one (at least as modeled right now).

Canadian was pretty chilly near and north of Pike. If we can get more involvement from the srn stream and reduce the WAA ahead of it from the competing nrn and srn streams..that would be a nice hit for sure.

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian was pretty chilly near and north of Pike. If we can get more involvement from the srn stream and reduce the WAA ahead of it from the competing nrn and srn streams..that would be a nice hit for sure.

Yeah you can see how the better solutions have a bit of split flow...like the northern stream isn't as obnoxious. Hopefully we can trend it a little more that way...because if we did, we'd probably not only get a nice little thump on the front, but we'd probably snow into Friday night/early Saturday with a CCB. That's getting into a best case scenario if you like snow, but you can see how it would happen with more southern stream dominance.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will be having mini visions of a childhood April day on that run

 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That's a ORH-Hills crusher.  Monadnocks and SVT too.  Wow that's moist.

850s get to the Pike quickly but then seem to hit a brick wall north of that.

Yeah I mean it's dicey near pike, but have a little time to adjust. I'm not getting hopes up too much here...but it's something interesting which will satisfy my crankiness lately. 

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